Validating ensemble historical simulations of Upernavik Isstrøm (1985–2019) using observations of surface velocity and elevation
The future of tidewater glaciers in response to climate warming is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to global sea-level rise. In this study, we investigate the ability of an ice-sheet model to reproduce the past evolution of the velocity and su...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Cambridge University Press
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| Series: | Journal of Glaciology |
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| Online Access: | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022143024000108/type/journal_article |
| _version_ | 1797198557362520064 |
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| author | Eliot Jager Fabien Gillet-Chaulet Jérémie Mouginot Romain Millan |
| author_facet | Eliot Jager Fabien Gillet-Chaulet Jérémie Mouginot Romain Millan |
| author_sort | Eliot Jager |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The future of tidewater glaciers in response to climate warming is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to global sea-level rise. In this study, we investigate the ability of an ice-sheet model to reproduce the past evolution of the velocity and surface elevation of a tidewater glacier, Upernavik Isstrøm, by prescribing front positions. To achieve this, we run two ensembles of simulations with a Weertman and a regularised-Coulomb friction law. We show that the ice-flow model has to include a reduction in friction in the first 15 km upstream of the ice front in fast-flowing regions to capture the trends observed during the 1985–2019 period. Without this process, the ensemble model overestimates the ice flow before the retreat of the front in 2005 and does not fully reproduce its acceleration during the retreat. This results in an overestimation of the total mass loss between 1985 and 2019 of 50% (300 vs 200 Gt). Using a variance-based sensitivity analysis, we show that uncertainties in the friction law and the ice-flow law have a greater impact on the model results than surface mass balance and initial surface elevation. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T05:56:23Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2a1bff8defc44b068a3f3675689c5fdc |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 0022-1430 1727-5652 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T07:01:45Z |
| publisher | Cambridge University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Glaciology |
| spelling | doaj.art-2a1bff8defc44b068a3f3675689c5fdc2024-04-22T07:56:29ZengCambridge University PressJournal of Glaciology0022-14301727-565211810.1017/jog.2024.10Validating ensemble historical simulations of Upernavik Isstrøm (1985–2019) using observations of surface velocity and elevationEliot Jager0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6493-0122Fabien Gillet-Chaulet1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6592-3840Jérémie Mouginot2Romain Millan3IGE, Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, 38000 Grenoble, FranceIGE, Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, 38000 Grenoble, FranceIGE, Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, 38000 Grenoble, France Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA, USAIGE, Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, 38000 Grenoble, France Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen K, DenmarkThe future of tidewater glaciers in response to climate warming is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to global sea-level rise. In this study, we investigate the ability of an ice-sheet model to reproduce the past evolution of the velocity and surface elevation of a tidewater glacier, Upernavik Isstrøm, by prescribing front positions. To achieve this, we run two ensembles of simulations with a Weertman and a regularised-Coulomb friction law. We show that the ice-flow model has to include a reduction in friction in the first 15 km upstream of the ice front in fast-flowing regions to capture the trends observed during the 1985–2019 period. Without this process, the ensemble model overestimates the ice flow before the retreat of the front in 2005 and does not fully reproduce its acceleration during the retreat. This results in an overestimation of the total mass loss between 1985 and 2019 of 50% (300 vs 200 Gt). Using a variance-based sensitivity analysis, we show that uncertainties in the friction law and the ice-flow law have a greater impact on the model results than surface mass balance and initial surface elevation.https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022143024000108/type/journal_articleglaciological model experimentsice-sheet modellingice velocity |
| spellingShingle | Eliot Jager Fabien Gillet-Chaulet Jérémie Mouginot Romain Millan Validating ensemble historical simulations of Upernavik Isstrøm (1985–2019) using observations of surface velocity and elevation Journal of Glaciology glaciological model experiments ice-sheet modelling ice velocity |
| title | Validating ensemble historical simulations of Upernavik Isstrøm (1985–2019) using observations of surface velocity and elevation |
| title_full | Validating ensemble historical simulations of Upernavik Isstrøm (1985–2019) using observations of surface velocity and elevation |
| title_fullStr | Validating ensemble historical simulations of Upernavik Isstrøm (1985–2019) using observations of surface velocity and elevation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Validating ensemble historical simulations of Upernavik Isstrøm (1985–2019) using observations of surface velocity and elevation |
| title_short | Validating ensemble historical simulations of Upernavik Isstrøm (1985–2019) using observations of surface velocity and elevation |
| title_sort | validating ensemble historical simulations of upernavik isstrom 1985 2019 using observations of surface velocity and elevation |
| topic | glaciological model experiments ice-sheet modelling ice velocity |
| url | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022143024000108/type/journal_article |
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