Projections of future changes in solar radiation in China based on CMIP5 climate models
Surface solar radiation research is important for understanding future climate change and the application of large-scale photovoltaic systems. We used the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) under the RCP8.5 scenario to project potential changes in surface solar radiation, surface...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
2018-10-01
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| Series: | Global Energy Interconnection |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2096511718300653 |
| _version_ | 1818855115746967552 |
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| author | Liwei Yang Junxia Jiang Tian Liu Yujie Li Ya Zhou Xiaoqing Gao |
| author_facet | Liwei Yang Junxia Jiang Tian Liu Yujie Li Ya Zhou Xiaoqing Gao |
| author_sort | Liwei Yang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Surface solar radiation research is important for understanding future climate change and the application of large-scale photovoltaic systems. We used the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) under the RCP8.5 scenario to project potential changes in surface solar radiation, surface temperatures, and cloud fractions between 2006 and 2049 in China, as well as how these changes may affect photovoltaic power generation. The results show that the following. (1) For surface temperatures, the median trends of all considered models show warming in China of 0.05 K/year. The maximum positive trends for all-sky radiation appear in the southeast of China, reaching 0.4 W/m2/year. Cloud cover exhibits a mainly decreasing trend in the overall region of China. (2) The all-sky radiation of most selected regions shows a decreasing trend. The maximum negative value (−0.08 W/m2/year) appears in Qinghai. (3) Compared with the average photovoltaic power output from 2006 to 2015, the photovoltaic power output in western China will decrease by −0.04 %/ year, while photovoltaic power output in southeastern China will increase by 0.06–0.1%/year. Keywords: Solar radiation changes, CMIP5 models, Climate change, PV output, Projections |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-19T08:03:29Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2a24f82df6c44f119918708dd1319c97 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2096-5117 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-19T08:03:29Z |
| publishDate | 2018-10-01 |
| publisher | KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Global Energy Interconnection |
| spelling | doaj.art-2a24f82df6c44f119918708dd1319c972022-12-21T20:29:48ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Global Energy Interconnection2096-51172018-10-0114452459Projections of future changes in solar radiation in China based on CMIP5 climate modelsLiwei Yang0Junxia Jiang1Tian Liu2Yujie Li3Ya Zhou4Xiaoqing Gao5Key Laboratory of Land Surface Process and Climate Change in Cold and Arid Regions, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, P.R. China.Key Laboratory of Land Surface Process and Climate Change in Cold and Arid Regions, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, P.R. China.; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, P.R. ChinaKey Laboratory of Land Surface Process and Climate Change in Cold and Arid Regions, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, P.R. China.; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, P.R. ChinaKey Laboratory of Land Surface Process and Climate Change in Cold and Arid Regions, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, P.R. China.; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, P.R. ChinaKey Laboratory of Land Surface Process and Climate Change in Cold and Arid Regions, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, P.R. China.; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, P.R. ChinaKey Laboratory of Land Surface Process and Climate Change in Cold and Arid Regions, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, P.R. China.Surface solar radiation research is important for understanding future climate change and the application of large-scale photovoltaic systems. We used the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) under the RCP8.5 scenario to project potential changes in surface solar radiation, surface temperatures, and cloud fractions between 2006 and 2049 in China, as well as how these changes may affect photovoltaic power generation. The results show that the following. (1) For surface temperatures, the median trends of all considered models show warming in China of 0.05 K/year. The maximum positive trends for all-sky radiation appear in the southeast of China, reaching 0.4 W/m2/year. Cloud cover exhibits a mainly decreasing trend in the overall region of China. (2) The all-sky radiation of most selected regions shows a decreasing trend. The maximum negative value (−0.08 W/m2/year) appears in Qinghai. (3) Compared with the average photovoltaic power output from 2006 to 2015, the photovoltaic power output in western China will decrease by −0.04 %/ year, while photovoltaic power output in southeastern China will increase by 0.06–0.1%/year. Keywords: Solar radiation changes, CMIP5 models, Climate change, PV output, Projectionshttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2096511718300653 |
| spellingShingle | Liwei Yang Junxia Jiang Tian Liu Yujie Li Ya Zhou Xiaoqing Gao Projections of future changes in solar radiation in China based on CMIP5 climate models Global Energy Interconnection |
| title | Projections of future changes in solar radiation in China based on CMIP5 climate models |
| title_full | Projections of future changes in solar radiation in China based on CMIP5 climate models |
| title_fullStr | Projections of future changes in solar radiation in China based on CMIP5 climate models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Projections of future changes in solar radiation in China based on CMIP5 climate models |
| title_short | Projections of future changes in solar radiation in China based on CMIP5 climate models |
| title_sort | projections of future changes in solar radiation in china based on cmip5 climate models |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2096511718300653 |
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