Prediction of the Total Output Value of China’s Construction Industry Based on FGM (1,1) Model
The total output value of the construction industry (TOVCI) reflects its own development level to a certain extent. An accurate prediction of the construction industry’s total output value is beneficial to the government’s dynamic regulation. The grey prediction model is widely used for its simple c...
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MDPI AG
2022-09-01
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| Series: | Axioms |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2075-1680/11/9/450 |
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| author | Xiao Zhang Jingyi Wang Liusan Wu Ming Cheng Dongqing Zhang |
| author_facet | Xiao Zhang Jingyi Wang Liusan Wu Ming Cheng Dongqing Zhang |
| author_sort | Xiao Zhang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The total output value of the construction industry (TOVCI) reflects its own development level to a certain extent. An accurate prediction of the construction industry’s total output value is beneficial to the government’s dynamic regulation. The grey prediction model is widely used for its simple calculation process and high prediction accuracy. Based on the TOVCI of China from 2017 to 2020, this paper constructs an FGM (1,1) model, calculates <i>r</i> by a simulated annealing algorithm, and forecasts the TOVCI of China in next few years. At present, the Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm (PSO) is employed in the calculation of <i>r</i> in the literature. However, the advantage of the simulated annealing algorithm is its powerful global search performance. The prediction results indicate that the TOVCI of China will continue to grow, but the growth rate will slow down. Therefore, the construction industry of China should not simply pursue the high-speed growth of the total output value, but pay more attention to high-quality development, such as technological innovation, energy conservation and environmental protection. Finally, the limitations and future research directions are elucidated. |
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| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2075-1680 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T00:43:55Z |
| publishDate | 2022-09-01 |
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| series | Axioms |
| spelling | doaj.art-2a369a298d034aa4acb0f66b7935c2482023-11-23T15:02:13ZengMDPI AGAxioms2075-16802022-09-0111945010.3390/axioms11090450Prediction of the Total Output Value of China’s Construction Industry Based on FGM (1,1) ModelXiao Zhang0Jingyi Wang1Liusan Wu2Ming Cheng3Dongqing Zhang4College of Information Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210031, ChinaCollege of Information Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210031, ChinaCollege of Information Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210031, ChinaCollege of Information Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210031, ChinaCollege of Information Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210031, ChinaThe total output value of the construction industry (TOVCI) reflects its own development level to a certain extent. An accurate prediction of the construction industry’s total output value is beneficial to the government’s dynamic regulation. The grey prediction model is widely used for its simple calculation process and high prediction accuracy. Based on the TOVCI of China from 2017 to 2020, this paper constructs an FGM (1,1) model, calculates <i>r</i> by a simulated annealing algorithm, and forecasts the TOVCI of China in next few years. At present, the Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm (PSO) is employed in the calculation of <i>r</i> in the literature. However, the advantage of the simulated annealing algorithm is its powerful global search performance. The prediction results indicate that the TOVCI of China will continue to grow, but the growth rate will slow down. Therefore, the construction industry of China should not simply pursue the high-speed growth of the total output value, but pay more attention to high-quality development, such as technological innovation, energy conservation and environmental protection. Finally, the limitations and future research directions are elucidated.https://www.mdpi.com/2075-1680/11/9/450construction industry of Chinatotal output valueFGM (1,1) modelsimulated annealing algorithm |
| spellingShingle | Xiao Zhang Jingyi Wang Liusan Wu Ming Cheng Dongqing Zhang Prediction of the Total Output Value of China’s Construction Industry Based on FGM (1,1) Model Axioms construction industry of China total output value FGM (1,1) model simulated annealing algorithm |
| title | Prediction of the Total Output Value of China’s Construction Industry Based on FGM (1,1) Model |
| title_full | Prediction of the Total Output Value of China’s Construction Industry Based on FGM (1,1) Model |
| title_fullStr | Prediction of the Total Output Value of China’s Construction Industry Based on FGM (1,1) Model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Prediction of the Total Output Value of China’s Construction Industry Based on FGM (1,1) Model |
| title_short | Prediction of the Total Output Value of China’s Construction Industry Based on FGM (1,1) Model |
| title_sort | prediction of the total output value of china s construction industry based on fgm 1 1 model |
| topic | construction industry of China total output value FGM (1,1) model simulated annealing algorithm |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2075-1680/11/9/450 |
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