Outcome uncertainty influences probability perception and risk attitudes
Subjective inferences of probability play a critical role in decision-making. How we learn about choice options, through description or experience, influences how we perceive their likelihoods, an effect known as the description–experience (DE) gap. Classically, the DE gap details how low probabilit...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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The Royal Society
2021-10-01
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| Series: | Royal Society Open Science |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.210307 |
| _version_ | 1831590476685246464 |
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| author | Thomas Ward Elston Ian Grant Mackenzie Victor Mittelstädt |
| author_facet | Thomas Ward Elston Ian Grant Mackenzie Victor Mittelstädt |
| author_sort | Thomas Ward Elston |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Subjective inferences of probability play a critical role in decision-making. How we learn about choice options, through description or experience, influences how we perceive their likelihoods, an effect known as the description–experience (DE) gap. Classically, the DE gap details how low probability described options are perceptually inflated as compared to equiprobable experience ones. However, these studies assessed probability perception relative to a ‘sure-bet’ option, and it remained unclear whether the DE gap occurs when humans directly trade-off equiprobable description and experience options and whether choice patterns are influenced by the prospects of gain and loss. We addressed these questions through two experiments where humans chose between description and experience options with equal probabilities of either winning or losing points. Contrary to early studies, we found that gain-seeking participants preferred experience options across all probability levels and, by contrast, loss-mitigating participants avoided the experience options across all probability levels, with a maximal effect at 50%. Our results suggest that the experience options were perceived as riskier than descriptive options due to the greater uncertainty associated with their outcomes. We conclude by outlining a novel theory of probabilistic inference where outcome uncertainty modulates probability perception and risk attitudes. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-18T01:04:55Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2a3a088a67f2494581cf9d08f2f11f9c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2054-5703 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-18T01:04:55Z |
| publishDate | 2021-10-01 |
| publisher | The Royal Society |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Royal Society Open Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-2a3a088a67f2494581cf9d08f2f11f9c2022-12-21T21:26:16ZengThe Royal SocietyRoyal Society Open Science2054-57032021-10-0181010.1098/rsos.210307Outcome uncertainty influences probability perception and risk attitudesThomas Ward Elston0Ian Grant Mackenzie1Victor Mittelstädt2Animal Physiology Unit, Institute for Neurobiology, University of Tübingen, Tübingen 72070, GermanyDepartment of Biological Psychology, University of Tübingen, Tübingen 72070, GermanyDepartment of Biological Psychology, University of Tübingen, Tübingen 72070, GermanySubjective inferences of probability play a critical role in decision-making. How we learn about choice options, through description or experience, influences how we perceive their likelihoods, an effect known as the description–experience (DE) gap. Classically, the DE gap details how low probability described options are perceptually inflated as compared to equiprobable experience ones. However, these studies assessed probability perception relative to a ‘sure-bet’ option, and it remained unclear whether the DE gap occurs when humans directly trade-off equiprobable description and experience options and whether choice patterns are influenced by the prospects of gain and loss. We addressed these questions through two experiments where humans chose between description and experience options with equal probabilities of either winning or losing points. Contrary to early studies, we found that gain-seeking participants preferred experience options across all probability levels and, by contrast, loss-mitigating participants avoided the experience options across all probability levels, with a maximal effect at 50%. Our results suggest that the experience options were perceived as riskier than descriptive options due to the greater uncertainty associated with their outcomes. We conclude by outlining a novel theory of probabilistic inference where outcome uncertainty modulates probability perception and risk attitudes.https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.210307description experience gapprobability perceptioninferencedecision makingrisk |
| spellingShingle | Thomas Ward Elston Ian Grant Mackenzie Victor Mittelstädt Outcome uncertainty influences probability perception and risk attitudes Royal Society Open Science description experience gap probability perception inference decision making risk |
| title | Outcome uncertainty influences probability perception and risk attitudes |
| title_full | Outcome uncertainty influences probability perception and risk attitudes |
| title_fullStr | Outcome uncertainty influences probability perception and risk attitudes |
| title_full_unstemmed | Outcome uncertainty influences probability perception and risk attitudes |
| title_short | Outcome uncertainty influences probability perception and risk attitudes |
| title_sort | outcome uncertainty influences probability perception and risk attitudes |
| topic | description experience gap probability perception inference decision making risk |
| url | https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.210307 |
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