Mitigating Drought Conditions under Climate and Land Use Changes by Applying Hedging Rules for the Multi-Reservoir System
Climate and land use changes have substantially affected hydrologic cycles and increased the risk of drought. Reservoirs are one of the important means to provide resilience against hydrologic variability and achieve sustainable water management. Therefore, adaptive reservoir operating rules are nee...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2021-11-01
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| Series: | Water |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/13/21/3095 |
| _version_ | 1797410810002145280 |
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| author | Zejun Li Bensheng Huang Zhifeng Yang Jing Qiu Bikui Zhao Yanpeng Cai |
| author_facet | Zejun Li Bensheng Huang Zhifeng Yang Jing Qiu Bikui Zhao Yanpeng Cai |
| author_sort | Zejun Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate and land use changes have substantially affected hydrologic cycles and increased the risk of drought. Reservoirs are one of the important means to provide resilience against hydrologic variability and achieve sustainable water management. Therefore, adaptive reservoir operating rules are needed to mitigate their adverse effects. In this study, the Hanjiang River Basin in southeast China was selected as the study area. Future climate and land use projections were produced by the Delta method and CA-Markov model, respectively. Future climate forcings and land use patterns were then incorporated into a distributed hydrologic model to evaluate river flow regime shifts. Results revealed that climate and land use changes may lead to severe drought conditions in the future. Lower flows are shown to be more sensitive to environmental changes and a decline of monthly flows could reach up to nearly 30% in the dry season. To address the threat of increasing drought uncertainties in the water supply system, the aggregation-decomposition method incorporated with hedging rules was applied to guide the multi-reservoir operation. Parameters of optimal hedging rules were obtained by a multi-objective optimization algorithm. The performance of hedging rules was evaluated by comparison to standard operating policies and conventional operating rules with respect to reliability, resiliency, vulnerability, and sustainability indices. Results showed that the multi-reservoir system guided by hedging rules can be more adaptive to the environmental changes. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T04:35:38Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2aca17d915214b859e23d6ac41abdab7 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4441 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T04:35:38Z |
| publishDate | 2021-11-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Water |
| spelling | doaj.art-2aca17d915214b859e23d6ac41abdab72023-12-03T13:28:08ZengMDPI AGWater2073-44412021-11-011321309510.3390/w13213095Mitigating Drought Conditions under Climate and Land Use Changes by Applying Hedging Rules for the Multi-Reservoir SystemZejun Li0Bensheng Huang1Zhifeng Yang2Jing Qiu3Bikui Zhao4Yanpeng Cai5Institute of Environmental & Ecological Engineering, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, ChinaGuangdong Research Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower, Guangzhou 510635, ChinaInstitute of Environmental & Ecological Engineering, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, ChinaGuangdong Research Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower, Guangzhou 510635, ChinaGuangdong Research Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower, Guangzhou 510635, ChinaInstitute of Environmental & Ecological Engineering, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, ChinaClimate and land use changes have substantially affected hydrologic cycles and increased the risk of drought. Reservoirs are one of the important means to provide resilience against hydrologic variability and achieve sustainable water management. Therefore, adaptive reservoir operating rules are needed to mitigate their adverse effects. In this study, the Hanjiang River Basin in southeast China was selected as the study area. Future climate and land use projections were produced by the Delta method and CA-Markov model, respectively. Future climate forcings and land use patterns were then incorporated into a distributed hydrologic model to evaluate river flow regime shifts. Results revealed that climate and land use changes may lead to severe drought conditions in the future. Lower flows are shown to be more sensitive to environmental changes and a decline of monthly flows could reach up to nearly 30% in the dry season. To address the threat of increasing drought uncertainties in the water supply system, the aggregation-decomposition method incorporated with hedging rules was applied to guide the multi-reservoir operation. Parameters of optimal hedging rules were obtained by a multi-objective optimization algorithm. The performance of hedging rules was evaluated by comparison to standard operating policies and conventional operating rules with respect to reliability, resiliency, vulnerability, and sustainability indices. Results showed that the multi-reservoir system guided by hedging rules can be more adaptive to the environmental changes.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/13/21/3095climate and land use changesSWAT modelhedging rulesaggregation-decompositiondrought conditions |
| spellingShingle | Zejun Li Bensheng Huang Zhifeng Yang Jing Qiu Bikui Zhao Yanpeng Cai Mitigating Drought Conditions under Climate and Land Use Changes by Applying Hedging Rules for the Multi-Reservoir System Water climate and land use changes SWAT model hedging rules aggregation-decomposition drought conditions |
| title | Mitigating Drought Conditions under Climate and Land Use Changes by Applying Hedging Rules for the Multi-Reservoir System |
| title_full | Mitigating Drought Conditions under Climate and Land Use Changes by Applying Hedging Rules for the Multi-Reservoir System |
| title_fullStr | Mitigating Drought Conditions under Climate and Land Use Changes by Applying Hedging Rules for the Multi-Reservoir System |
| title_full_unstemmed | Mitigating Drought Conditions under Climate and Land Use Changes by Applying Hedging Rules for the Multi-Reservoir System |
| title_short | Mitigating Drought Conditions under Climate and Land Use Changes by Applying Hedging Rules for the Multi-Reservoir System |
| title_sort | mitigating drought conditions under climate and land use changes by applying hedging rules for the multi reservoir system |
| topic | climate and land use changes SWAT model hedging rules aggregation-decomposition drought conditions |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/13/21/3095 |
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