Managing Spring rain risks in vineyards: A user-centred approach to identify climate decision triggers in seasonal forecasts
In the context of climate risk mitigation strategies seasonal forecasts have been often proposed as a potential climate risk management tool for the wine industry. However, in spite of the recent research advancements, the adoption of climate predictions in strategic decision-making remains complex....
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2023-12-01
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| Series: | Climate Services |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880723000808 |
| _version_ | 1797450901105934336 |
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| author | Ilaria Vigo Raul Marcos Marta Terrado Nube González-Reviriego Albert Soret Marta Teixeira Natacha Fontes Antonio Graça |
| author_facet | Ilaria Vigo Raul Marcos Marta Terrado Nube González-Reviriego Albert Soret Marta Teixeira Natacha Fontes Antonio Graça |
| author_sort | Ilaria Vigo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In the context of climate risk mitigation strategies seasonal forecasts have been often proposed as a potential climate risk management tool for the wine industry. However, in spite of the recent research advancements, the adoption of climate predictions in strategic decision-making remains complex. This paper aims to support decision-making in the wine sector by providing a methodology to establish the probability thresholds that can trigger a decision based on seasonal forecasts, in an illustrative setting where precipitation occurring in spring could heavily affect the effectiveness of plant protection and canopy management. The results show the probability thresholds obtained for the user involved and the specific decision under three different predicted scenarios. The advantages of this co-production methodology consist in the trust created by the engagement with the user and the high level of tailoring of the analysis performed, posing the basis for user risk profile analysis. The drawbacks lay in the use of a simplified theoretical framework and the need of engaging new users for replication. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T14:46:14Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2adbd3bab9434f6ea1233a9fb229e125 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2405-8807 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T14:46:14Z |
| publishDate | 2023-12-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Climate Services |
| spelling | doaj.art-2adbd3bab9434f6ea1233a9fb229e1252023-11-27T04:14:56ZengElsevierClimate Services2405-88072023-12-0132100418Managing Spring rain risks in vineyards: A user-centred approach to identify climate decision triggers in seasonal forecastsIlaria Vigo0Raul Marcos1Marta Terrado2Nube González-Reviriego3Albert Soret4Marta Teixeira5Natacha Fontes6Antonio Graça7Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC-CNS), Plaça d’Eusebi Güell 1-3, 08034 Barcelona, Spain; Corresponding author.Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC-CNS), Plaça d’Eusebi Güell 1-3, 08034 Barcelona, Spain; Department of Applied Physics, University of Barcelona, Av. Diagonal 647, 08028 Barcelona, SpainBarcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC-CNS), Plaça d’Eusebi Güell 1-3, 08034 Barcelona, SpainBarcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC-CNS), Plaça d’Eusebi Güell 1-3, 08034 Barcelona, SpainBarcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC-CNS), Plaça d’Eusebi Güell 1-3, 08034 Barcelona, SpainSogrape Vinhos SA, Rua 5 de Outubro 4527, 4430-852 Avintes, PortugalSogrape Vinhos SA, Rua 5 de Outubro 4527, 4430-852 Avintes, PortugalSogrape Vinhos SA, Rua 5 de Outubro 4527, 4430-852 Avintes, PortugalIn the context of climate risk mitigation strategies seasonal forecasts have been often proposed as a potential climate risk management tool for the wine industry. However, in spite of the recent research advancements, the adoption of climate predictions in strategic decision-making remains complex. This paper aims to support decision-making in the wine sector by providing a methodology to establish the probability thresholds that can trigger a decision based on seasonal forecasts, in an illustrative setting where precipitation occurring in spring could heavily affect the effectiveness of plant protection and canopy management. The results show the probability thresholds obtained for the user involved and the specific decision under three different predicted scenarios. The advantages of this co-production methodology consist in the trust created by the engagement with the user and the high level of tailoring of the analysis performed, posing the basis for user risk profile analysis. The drawbacks lay in the use of a simplified theoretical framework and the need of engaging new users for replication.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880723000808 |
| spellingShingle | Ilaria Vigo Raul Marcos Marta Terrado Nube González-Reviriego Albert Soret Marta Teixeira Natacha Fontes Antonio Graça Managing Spring rain risks in vineyards: A user-centred approach to identify climate decision triggers in seasonal forecasts Climate Services |
| title | Managing Spring rain risks in vineyards: A user-centred approach to identify climate decision triggers in seasonal forecasts |
| title_full | Managing Spring rain risks in vineyards: A user-centred approach to identify climate decision triggers in seasonal forecasts |
| title_fullStr | Managing Spring rain risks in vineyards: A user-centred approach to identify climate decision triggers in seasonal forecasts |
| title_full_unstemmed | Managing Spring rain risks in vineyards: A user-centred approach to identify climate decision triggers in seasonal forecasts |
| title_short | Managing Spring rain risks in vineyards: A user-centred approach to identify climate decision triggers in seasonal forecasts |
| title_sort | managing spring rain risks in vineyards a user centred approach to identify climate decision triggers in seasonal forecasts |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880723000808 |
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