Influence of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on the Arctic Oscillation Prediction in S2S Operational Models
The connections between the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) are examined in both observations and model forecasts. In the observations, the time-lag composites are carried out for AO indices and anomalies of 1,000-hPa geopotential height after an active or inactive in...
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2021-11-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Earth Science |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2021.787680/full |
| _version_ | 1819037657599049728 |
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| author | Yang Zhou Yang Zhou Yang Wang Yang Wang |
| author_facet | Yang Zhou Yang Zhou Yang Wang Yang Wang |
| author_sort | Yang Zhou |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The connections between the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) are examined in both observations and model forecasts. In the observations, the time-lag composites are carried out for AO indices and anomalies of 1,000-hPa geopotential height after an active or inactive initial MJO. The results show that when the AO is in its positive (negative) phase at the initial time, the AO activity is generally enhanced (weakened) after an active MJO. Reforecast data of the 11 operational global circulation models from the Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project are further used to examine the relationship between MJO activity and AO prediction. When the AO is in its positive phase on the initial day of the S2S prediction, an initial active MJO can generally improve the AO prediction skill in most of the models. This is consistent with results found in the observations that a leading MJO can enhance the AO activity. However, when the AO is in its negative phase, the relationship between the MJO and AO prediction is not consistent among the 11 models. Only a few S2S models provide results that agree with the observations. Furthermore, the S2S prediction skill of the AO is examined in different MJO phases. There is a significantly positive relationship between the MJO-related AO activity and the AO prediction skill. When the AO activity is strong (weak) in an MJO phase, including the inactive MJO, the models tend to have a high (low) AO prediction skill. For example, no matter what phase the initial AO is in, the AO prediction skill is generally high in MJO phase 7, in which the AO activity is generally strong. Thus, the MJO is an important predictability source for the AO forecast in the S2S models. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-21T08:24:54Z |
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| id | doaj.art-2adf8b7f119c41d19aac85cda997f49a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-6463 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-21T08:24:54Z |
| publishDate | 2021-11-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Earth Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-2adf8b7f119c41d19aac85cda997f49a2022-12-21T19:10:21ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Earth Science2296-64632021-11-01910.3389/feart.2021.787680787680Influence of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on the Arctic Oscillation Prediction in S2S Operational ModelsYang Zhou0Yang Zhou1Yang Wang2Yang Wang3Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, ChinaSchool of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, ChinaKey Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, ChinaSchool of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, ChinaThe connections between the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) are examined in both observations and model forecasts. In the observations, the time-lag composites are carried out for AO indices and anomalies of 1,000-hPa geopotential height after an active or inactive initial MJO. The results show that when the AO is in its positive (negative) phase at the initial time, the AO activity is generally enhanced (weakened) after an active MJO. Reforecast data of the 11 operational global circulation models from the Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project are further used to examine the relationship between MJO activity and AO prediction. When the AO is in its positive phase on the initial day of the S2S prediction, an initial active MJO can generally improve the AO prediction skill in most of the models. This is consistent with results found in the observations that a leading MJO can enhance the AO activity. However, when the AO is in its negative phase, the relationship between the MJO and AO prediction is not consistent among the 11 models. Only a few S2S models provide results that agree with the observations. Furthermore, the S2S prediction skill of the AO is examined in different MJO phases. There is a significantly positive relationship between the MJO-related AO activity and the AO prediction skill. When the AO activity is strong (weak) in an MJO phase, including the inactive MJO, the models tend to have a high (low) AO prediction skill. For example, no matter what phase the initial AO is in, the AO prediction skill is generally high in MJO phase 7, in which the AO activity is generally strong. Thus, the MJO is an important predictability source for the AO forecast in the S2S models.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2021.787680/fullsub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S)Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO)Arctic oscillation (AO)predictioninitial time |
| spellingShingle | Yang Zhou Yang Zhou Yang Wang Yang Wang Influence of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on the Arctic Oscillation Prediction in S2S Operational Models Frontiers in Earth Science sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) Arctic oscillation (AO) prediction initial time |
| title | Influence of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on the Arctic Oscillation Prediction in S2S Operational Models |
| title_full | Influence of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on the Arctic Oscillation Prediction in S2S Operational Models |
| title_fullStr | Influence of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on the Arctic Oscillation Prediction in S2S Operational Models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Influence of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on the Arctic Oscillation Prediction in S2S Operational Models |
| title_short | Influence of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on the Arctic Oscillation Prediction in S2S Operational Models |
| title_sort | influence of the madden julian oscillation on the arctic oscillation prediction in s2s operational models |
| topic | sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) Arctic oscillation (AO) prediction initial time |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2021.787680/full |
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