A System Dynamics Prediction Model of Airport Environmental Carrying Capacity: Airport Development Mode Planning and Case Study
Airport environmental carrying capacity (AECC) provides the fundamental conditions for airport development and operation activities. The prediction of AECC is a necessary condition for planning an appropriate development mode for the airport. This paper studies the dynamic prediction method of the A...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2021-12-01
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| Series: | Aerospace |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2226-4310/8/12/397 |
| _version_ | 1797507059271335936 |
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| author | Qiuping Peng Lili Wan Tianci Zhang Zhan Wang Yong Tian |
| author_facet | Qiuping Peng Lili Wan Tianci Zhang Zhan Wang Yong Tian |
| author_sort | Qiuping Peng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Airport environmental carrying capacity (AECC) provides the fundamental conditions for airport development and operation activities. The prediction of AECC is a necessary condition for planning an appropriate development mode for the airport. This paper studies the dynamic prediction method of the AECC to explore the development characteristics of AECC in different airports. Based on the driving force-pressure-state-response (DPSR) framework, the method selects 17 main variables from economic, social, environmental and operational dimensions, and then combines the drawing of causal loop diagrams and the establishment of system flow diagrams to construct the system dynamics (SD) model of AECC. The predicted values of AECC are obtained through SD model simulation and accelerated genetic algorithm projection pursuit (AGA-PP) model calculation. Considering sustainable development needs, different scenarios are set to analyze the appropriate development mode of the airport. The case study of the Pearl River Delta airports resulted in two main conclusions. First, in the same economic zone, different airports with similar aircraft movements have similar development characteristics of AECC. Second, the appropriate development modes for different airports are different, and the appropriate development modes for the airport in different periods are also different. The case study also proves that the AECC prediction based on SD model and AGA-PP model can realize short-term policy formulation and long-term planning for the airport development mode, and provide decision-making support for relevant departments of airport. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T04:41:16Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2aefa62920cb470eae39922d5412f08e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2226-4310 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T04:41:16Z |
| publishDate | 2021-12-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Aerospace |
| spelling | doaj.art-2aefa62920cb470eae39922d5412f08e2023-11-23T03:18:24ZengMDPI AGAerospace2226-43102021-12-0181239710.3390/aerospace8120397A System Dynamics Prediction Model of Airport Environmental Carrying Capacity: Airport Development Mode Planning and Case StudyQiuping Peng0Lili Wan1Tianci Zhang2Zhan Wang3Yong Tian4College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211100, ChinaCollege of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211100, ChinaCollege of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211100, ChinaCollege of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211100, ChinaCollege of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211100, ChinaAirport environmental carrying capacity (AECC) provides the fundamental conditions for airport development and operation activities. The prediction of AECC is a necessary condition for planning an appropriate development mode for the airport. This paper studies the dynamic prediction method of the AECC to explore the development characteristics of AECC in different airports. Based on the driving force-pressure-state-response (DPSR) framework, the method selects 17 main variables from economic, social, environmental and operational dimensions, and then combines the drawing of causal loop diagrams and the establishment of system flow diagrams to construct the system dynamics (SD) model of AECC. The predicted values of AECC are obtained through SD model simulation and accelerated genetic algorithm projection pursuit (AGA-PP) model calculation. Considering sustainable development needs, different scenarios are set to analyze the appropriate development mode of the airport. The case study of the Pearl River Delta airports resulted in two main conclusions. First, in the same economic zone, different airports with similar aircraft movements have similar development characteristics of AECC. Second, the appropriate development modes for different airports are different, and the appropriate development modes for the airport in different periods are also different. The case study also proves that the AECC prediction based on SD model and AGA-PP model can realize short-term policy formulation and long-term planning for the airport development mode, and provide decision-making support for relevant departments of airport.https://www.mdpi.com/2226-4310/8/12/397airport environmental carrying capacityprojection pursuit modelsystem dynamics model |
| spellingShingle | Qiuping Peng Lili Wan Tianci Zhang Zhan Wang Yong Tian A System Dynamics Prediction Model of Airport Environmental Carrying Capacity: Airport Development Mode Planning and Case Study Aerospace airport environmental carrying capacity projection pursuit model system dynamics model |
| title | A System Dynamics Prediction Model of Airport Environmental Carrying Capacity: Airport Development Mode Planning and Case Study |
| title_full | A System Dynamics Prediction Model of Airport Environmental Carrying Capacity: Airport Development Mode Planning and Case Study |
| title_fullStr | A System Dynamics Prediction Model of Airport Environmental Carrying Capacity: Airport Development Mode Planning and Case Study |
| title_full_unstemmed | A System Dynamics Prediction Model of Airport Environmental Carrying Capacity: Airport Development Mode Planning and Case Study |
| title_short | A System Dynamics Prediction Model of Airport Environmental Carrying Capacity: Airport Development Mode Planning and Case Study |
| title_sort | system dynamics prediction model of airport environmental carrying capacity airport development mode planning and case study |
| topic | airport environmental carrying capacity projection pursuit model system dynamics model |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2226-4310/8/12/397 |
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