A New Integrated Assessment Framework for Climate-Smart Nutrition Security in sub-Saharan Africa: The Integrated Future Estimator for Emissions and Diets (iFEED)
Climate change will put millions more people in Africa at risk of food and nutrition insecurity by 2050. Integrated assessments of food systems tend to be limited by either heavy reliance on models or a lack of information on food and nutrition security. Accordingly, we developed a novel integrated...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Frontiers Media S.A.
2022-07-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fsufs.2022.868189/full |
| _version_ | 1818471315336593408 |
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| author | Stewart A. Jennings Andrew J. Challinor Pete Smith Jennie I. Macdiarmid Edward Pope Sarah Chapman Catherine Bradshaw Catherine Bradshaw Heather Clark Sylvia Vetter Nuala Fitton Richard King Sithembile Mwamakamba Tshilidzi Madzivhandila Ian Mashingaidze Christian Chomba Masiye Nawiko Bonani Nyhodo Ndumiso Mazibuko Precious Yeki Pamela Kuwali Alfred Kambwiri Vivian Kazi Agatha Kiama Abel Songole Helen Coskeran Claire Quinn Susannah Sallu Andrew Dougill Stephen Whitfield Bill Kunin Nalishebo Meebelo Andrew Jamali Dhaquirs Kantande Prosper Makundi Winfred Mbungu Frank Kayula Sue Walker Sue Walker Sibongile Zimba Joseph Hubert Galani Yamdeu Joseph Hubert Galani Yamdeu Ndashe Kapulu Marcelo Valadares Galdos Samuel Eze Hemant G. Tripathi Hemant G. Tripathi Steven M. Sait Stefan Kepinski Emmanuel Likoya Henry Greathead Harriet Elizabeth Smith Marcelin Tonye Mahop Helen Harwatt Maliha Muzammil Graham Horgan Tim Benton |
| author_facet | Stewart A. Jennings Andrew J. Challinor Pete Smith Jennie I. Macdiarmid Edward Pope Sarah Chapman Catherine Bradshaw Catherine Bradshaw Heather Clark Sylvia Vetter Nuala Fitton Richard King Sithembile Mwamakamba Tshilidzi Madzivhandila Ian Mashingaidze Christian Chomba Masiye Nawiko Bonani Nyhodo Ndumiso Mazibuko Precious Yeki Pamela Kuwali Alfred Kambwiri Vivian Kazi Agatha Kiama Abel Songole Helen Coskeran Claire Quinn Susannah Sallu Andrew Dougill Stephen Whitfield Bill Kunin Nalishebo Meebelo Andrew Jamali Dhaquirs Kantande Prosper Makundi Winfred Mbungu Frank Kayula Sue Walker Sue Walker Sibongile Zimba Joseph Hubert Galani Yamdeu Joseph Hubert Galani Yamdeu Ndashe Kapulu Marcelo Valadares Galdos Samuel Eze Hemant G. Tripathi Hemant G. Tripathi Steven M. Sait Stefan Kepinski Emmanuel Likoya Henry Greathead Harriet Elizabeth Smith Marcelin Tonye Mahop Helen Harwatt Maliha Muzammil Graham Horgan Tim Benton |
| author_sort | Stewart A. Jennings |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change will put millions more people in Africa at risk of food and nutrition insecurity by 2050. Integrated assessments of food systems tend to be limited by either heavy reliance on models or a lack of information on food and nutrition security. Accordingly, we developed a novel integrated assessment framework that combines models with in-country knowledge and expert academic judgement to explore climate-smart and nutrition-secure food system futures: the integrated Future Estimator for Emissions and Diets (iFEED). Here, we describe iFEED and present its application in Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania and Zambia. The iFEED process begins with a participatory scenario workshop. In-country stakeholders identify two key drivers of food system change, and from these, four possible scenarios are defined. These scenarios provide the underlying narratives of change to the food system. Integrated modeling of climate change, food production and greenhouse gas emissions is then used to explore nutrition security and climate-smart agriculture outcomes for each scenario. Model results are summarized using calibrated statements—quantitative statements of model outcomes and our confidence in them. These include statements about the way in which different trade futures interact with climate change and domestic production in determining nutrition security at the national level. To understand what the model results mean for food systems, the calibrated statements are expanded upon using implication statements. The implications rely on input from a wide range of academic experts—including agro-ecologists and social scientists. A series of workshops are used to incorporate in-country expertise, identifying any gaps in knowledge and summarizing information for country-level recommendations. iFEED stakeholder champions help throughout by providing in-country expertise and disseminating knowledge to policy makers. iFEED has numerous novel aspects that can be used and developed in future work. It provides information to support evidence-based decisions for a climate-smart and nutrition-secure future. In particular, iFEED: (i) employs novel and inclusive reporting of model results and associated in-country food system activities, with comprehensive reporting of uncertainty; (ii) includes climate change mitigation alongside adaptation measures; and (iii) quantifies future population-level nutrition security, as opposed to simply assessing future production and food security implications. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-14T03:49:31Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2b2446d48aea42d5bfd65414db6711e4 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2571-581X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-14T03:49:31Z |
| publishDate | 2022-07-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems |
| spelling | doaj.art-2b2446d48aea42d5bfd65414db6711e42022-12-22T02:14:06ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems2571-581X2022-07-01610.3389/fsufs.2022.868189868189A New Integrated Assessment Framework for Climate-Smart Nutrition Security in sub-Saharan Africa: The Integrated Future Estimator for Emissions and Diets (iFEED)Stewart A. Jennings0Andrew J. Challinor1Pete Smith2Jennie I. Macdiarmid3Edward Pope4Sarah Chapman5Catherine Bradshaw6Catherine Bradshaw7Heather Clark8Sylvia Vetter9Nuala Fitton10Richard King11Sithembile Mwamakamba12Tshilidzi Madzivhandila13Ian Mashingaidze14Christian Chomba15Masiye Nawiko16Bonani Nyhodo17Ndumiso Mazibuko18Precious Yeki19Pamela Kuwali20Alfred Kambwiri21Vivian Kazi22Agatha Kiama23Abel Songole24Helen Coskeran25Claire Quinn26Susannah Sallu27Andrew Dougill28Stephen Whitfield29Bill Kunin30Nalishebo Meebelo31Andrew Jamali32Dhaquirs Kantande33Prosper Makundi34Winfred Mbungu35Frank Kayula36Sue Walker37Sue Walker38Sibongile Zimba39Joseph Hubert Galani Yamdeu40Joseph Hubert Galani Yamdeu41Ndashe Kapulu42Marcelo Valadares Galdos43Samuel Eze44Hemant G. Tripathi45Hemant G. Tripathi46Steven M. Sait47Stefan Kepinski48Emmanuel Likoya49Henry Greathead50Harriet Elizabeth Smith51Marcelin Tonye Mahop52Helen Harwatt53Maliha Muzammil54Graham Horgan55Tim Benton56Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United KingdomInstitute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United KingdomInstitute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United KingdomSchool of Medicine, Medical Sciences and Nutrition, The Rowett Institute, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United KingdomHadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, United KingdomInstitute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United KingdomHadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, United KingdomGlobal Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, United KingdomSchool of Medicine, Medical Sciences and Nutrition, Institute of Applied Health Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United KingdomInstitute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United KingdomInstitute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United KingdomChatham House, Royal Institute of International Affairs, London, United KingdomFood, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network, Pretoria, South AfricaFood, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network, Pretoria, South AfricaFood, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network, Pretoria, South AfricaAgricultural Consultative Forum, Lusaka, ZambiaAgricultural Consultative Forum, Lusaka, Zambia0National Agricultural Marketing Council, Pretoria, South Africa0National Agricultural Marketing Council, Pretoria, South Africa0National Agricultural Marketing Council, Pretoria, South Africa1Civil Society Agriculture Network, Lilongwe, Malawi1Civil Society Agriculture Network, Lilongwe, Malawi2Economic and Social Research Foundation, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania2Economic and Social Research Foundation, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania2Economic and Social Research Foundation, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania3School of Biology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom4Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom4Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom4Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom4Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom3School of Biology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom5Regional Network of Agricultural Policy Research Institutes, Lusaka, Zambia6Malawi National Planning Commission, Lilongwe, Malawi7Concern Worldwide, Lilongwe, Malawi8Environmental Management Unit, Ministry of Agriculture, Dodoma, Tanzania9Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro, Tanzania0Kaypro Research Institute, Lusaka, Zambia1Agricultural Research Council, Pretoria, South Africa2University of the Free State, Bloemfontein, South Africa3School of Biology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom3School of Food Science and Nutrition, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom4Section of Natural and Applied Sciences, School of Psychology and Life Sciences, Canterbury Christ Church University, Canterbury, United Kingdom3School of Food Science and Nutrition, University of Leeds, Leeds, United KingdomInstitute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom4Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom3School of Biology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom5UN Environment Programme-World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC), Cambridge, United Kingdom3School of Biology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom3School of Biology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom4Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom3School of Biology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom4Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom4Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United KingdomChatham House, Royal Institute of International Affairs, London, United KingdomChatham House, Royal Institute of International Affairs, London, United Kingdom6Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland, Aberdeen, United KingdomChatham House, Royal Institute of International Affairs, London, United KingdomClimate change will put millions more people in Africa at risk of food and nutrition insecurity by 2050. Integrated assessments of food systems tend to be limited by either heavy reliance on models or a lack of information on food and nutrition security. Accordingly, we developed a novel integrated assessment framework that combines models with in-country knowledge and expert academic judgement to explore climate-smart and nutrition-secure food system futures: the integrated Future Estimator for Emissions and Diets (iFEED). Here, we describe iFEED and present its application in Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania and Zambia. The iFEED process begins with a participatory scenario workshop. In-country stakeholders identify two key drivers of food system change, and from these, four possible scenarios are defined. These scenarios provide the underlying narratives of change to the food system. Integrated modeling of climate change, food production and greenhouse gas emissions is then used to explore nutrition security and climate-smart agriculture outcomes for each scenario. Model results are summarized using calibrated statements—quantitative statements of model outcomes and our confidence in them. These include statements about the way in which different trade futures interact with climate change and domestic production in determining nutrition security at the national level. To understand what the model results mean for food systems, the calibrated statements are expanded upon using implication statements. The implications rely on input from a wide range of academic experts—including agro-ecologists and social scientists. A series of workshops are used to incorporate in-country expertise, identifying any gaps in knowledge and summarizing information for country-level recommendations. iFEED stakeholder champions help throughout by providing in-country expertise and disseminating knowledge to policy makers. iFEED has numerous novel aspects that can be used and developed in future work. It provides information to support evidence-based decisions for a climate-smart and nutrition-secure future. In particular, iFEED: (i) employs novel and inclusive reporting of model results and associated in-country food system activities, with comprehensive reporting of uncertainty; (ii) includes climate change mitigation alongside adaptation measures; and (iii) quantifies future population-level nutrition security, as opposed to simply assessing future production and food security implications.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fsufs.2022.868189/fullnutrition securityclimate-smart agricultureadaptationmitigationclimate changesub-Saharan Africa |
| spellingShingle | Stewart A. Jennings Andrew J. Challinor Pete Smith Jennie I. Macdiarmid Edward Pope Sarah Chapman Catherine Bradshaw Catherine Bradshaw Heather Clark Sylvia Vetter Nuala Fitton Richard King Sithembile Mwamakamba Tshilidzi Madzivhandila Ian Mashingaidze Christian Chomba Masiye Nawiko Bonani Nyhodo Ndumiso Mazibuko Precious Yeki Pamela Kuwali Alfred Kambwiri Vivian Kazi Agatha Kiama Abel Songole Helen Coskeran Claire Quinn Susannah Sallu Andrew Dougill Stephen Whitfield Bill Kunin Nalishebo Meebelo Andrew Jamali Dhaquirs Kantande Prosper Makundi Winfred Mbungu Frank Kayula Sue Walker Sue Walker Sibongile Zimba Joseph Hubert Galani Yamdeu Joseph Hubert Galani Yamdeu Ndashe Kapulu Marcelo Valadares Galdos Samuel Eze Hemant G. Tripathi Hemant G. Tripathi Steven M. Sait Stefan Kepinski Emmanuel Likoya Henry Greathead Harriet Elizabeth Smith Marcelin Tonye Mahop Helen Harwatt Maliha Muzammil Graham Horgan Tim Benton A New Integrated Assessment Framework for Climate-Smart Nutrition Security in sub-Saharan Africa: The Integrated Future Estimator for Emissions and Diets (iFEED) Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems nutrition security climate-smart agriculture adaptation mitigation climate change sub-Saharan Africa |
| title | A New Integrated Assessment Framework for Climate-Smart Nutrition Security in sub-Saharan Africa: The Integrated Future Estimator for Emissions and Diets (iFEED) |
| title_full | A New Integrated Assessment Framework for Climate-Smart Nutrition Security in sub-Saharan Africa: The Integrated Future Estimator for Emissions and Diets (iFEED) |
| title_fullStr | A New Integrated Assessment Framework for Climate-Smart Nutrition Security in sub-Saharan Africa: The Integrated Future Estimator for Emissions and Diets (iFEED) |
| title_full_unstemmed | A New Integrated Assessment Framework for Climate-Smart Nutrition Security in sub-Saharan Africa: The Integrated Future Estimator for Emissions and Diets (iFEED) |
| title_short | A New Integrated Assessment Framework for Climate-Smart Nutrition Security in sub-Saharan Africa: The Integrated Future Estimator for Emissions and Diets (iFEED) |
| title_sort | new integrated assessment framework for climate smart nutrition security in sub saharan africa the integrated future estimator for emissions and diets ifeed |
| topic | nutrition security climate-smart agriculture adaptation mitigation climate change sub-Saharan Africa |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fsufs.2022.868189/full |
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