COVID-19 Pandemic Development in Jordan—Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasting
In this study, we proposed three simple approaches to forecast COVID-19 reported cases in a Middle Eastern society (Jordan). The first approach was a short-term forecast (STF) model based on a linear forecast model using the previous days as a learning data-base for forecasting. The second approach...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2021-07-01
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| Series: | Vaccines |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/9/7/728 |
| _version_ | 1797525968992075776 |
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| author | Tareq Hussein Mahmoud H. Hammad Pak Lun Fung Marwan Al-Kloub Issam Odeh Martha A. Zaidan Darren Wraith |
| author_facet | Tareq Hussein Mahmoud H. Hammad Pak Lun Fung Marwan Al-Kloub Issam Odeh Martha A. Zaidan Darren Wraith |
| author_sort | Tareq Hussein |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In this study, we proposed three simple approaches to forecast COVID-19 reported cases in a Middle Eastern society (Jordan). The first approach was a short-term forecast (STF) model based on a linear forecast model using the previous days as a learning data-base for forecasting. The second approach was a long-term forecast (LTF) model based on a mathematical formula that best described the current pandemic situation in Jordan. Both approaches can be seen as complementary: the STF can cope with sudden daily changes in the pandemic whereas the LTF can be utilized to predict the upcoming waves’ occurrence and strength. As such, the third approach was a hybrid forecast (HF) model merging both the STF and the LTF models. The HF was shown to be an efficient forecast model with excellent accuracy. It is evident that the decision to enforce the curfew at an early stage followed by the planned lockdown has been effective in eliminating a serious wave in April 2020. Vaccination has been effective in combating COVID-19 by reducing infection rates. Based on the forecasting results, there is some possibility that Jordan may face a third wave of the pandemic during the Summer of 2021. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T09:20:34Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2b378c2e28104fab9b861b59c5e4a32d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2076-393X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T09:20:34Z |
| publishDate | 2021-07-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Vaccines |
| spelling | doaj.art-2b378c2e28104fab9b861b59c5e4a32d2023-11-22T05:12:08ZengMDPI AGVaccines2076-393X2021-07-019772810.3390/vaccines9070728COVID-19 Pandemic Development in Jordan—Short-Term and Long-Term ForecastingTareq Hussein0Mahmoud H. Hammad1Pak Lun Fung2Marwan Al-Kloub3Issam Odeh4Martha A. Zaidan5Darren Wraith6Department of Physics, The University of Jordan, Amman 11942, JordanDepartment of Physics, The University of Jordan, Amman 11942, JordanInstitute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR/Physics), University of Helsinki, FI-00014 Helsinki, FinlandDepartment of Physics, Prince Faisal Technical College, Amman 11134, JordanDepartment of Basic Sciences, Al Zaytoonah University of Jordan, Amman 11733, JordanInstitute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR/Physics), University of Helsinki, FI-00014 Helsinki, FinlandSchool of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane 4000, AustraliaIn this study, we proposed three simple approaches to forecast COVID-19 reported cases in a Middle Eastern society (Jordan). The first approach was a short-term forecast (STF) model based on a linear forecast model using the previous days as a learning data-base for forecasting. The second approach was a long-term forecast (LTF) model based on a mathematical formula that best described the current pandemic situation in Jordan. Both approaches can be seen as complementary: the STF can cope with sudden daily changes in the pandemic whereas the LTF can be utilized to predict the upcoming waves’ occurrence and strength. As such, the third approach was a hybrid forecast (HF) model merging both the STF and the LTF models. The HF was shown to be an efficient forecast model with excellent accuracy. It is evident that the decision to enforce the curfew at an early stage followed by the planned lockdown has been effective in eliminating a serious wave in April 2020. Vaccination has been effective in combating COVID-19 by reducing infection rates. Based on the forecasting results, there is some possibility that Jordan may face a third wave of the pandemic during the Summer of 2021.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/9/7/728linear forecastwhite-box modelvaccinationpublic immunity |
| spellingShingle | Tareq Hussein Mahmoud H. Hammad Pak Lun Fung Marwan Al-Kloub Issam Odeh Martha A. Zaidan Darren Wraith COVID-19 Pandemic Development in Jordan—Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasting Vaccines linear forecast white-box model vaccination public immunity |
| title | COVID-19 Pandemic Development in Jordan—Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasting |
| title_full | COVID-19 Pandemic Development in Jordan—Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasting |
| title_fullStr | COVID-19 Pandemic Development in Jordan—Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasting |
| title_full_unstemmed | COVID-19 Pandemic Development in Jordan—Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasting |
| title_short | COVID-19 Pandemic Development in Jordan—Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasting |
| title_sort | covid 19 pandemic development in jordan short term and long term forecasting |
| topic | linear forecast white-box model vaccination public immunity |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/9/7/728 |
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