An Early Warning System for Detection of Financial Crises in the Economy of Iran
Due to negative effects of financial crises on the real sectors of the economy, and the consequent recessionary impacts of them, the idea of forecasting financial crises via an early warning system has become a subject of interest to researchers. Financial crises of 1997 in South East Aisa, and...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | fas |
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Allameh Tabataba'i University Press
2004-01-01
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| Series: | فصلنامه پژوهشهای اقتصادی ایران |
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| Online Access: | https://ijer.atu.ac.ir/article_3871_f923147963fa994868249d8572f85392.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797369435370029056 |
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| author | Morteza Naderi |
| author_facet | Morteza Naderi |
| author_sort | Morteza Naderi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Due to negative effects of financial crises on the real sectors of the economy, and the consequent recessionary impacts of them, the idea of forecasting financial crises via an early warning system has become a subject of interest to researchers. Financial crises of 1997 in South East Aisa, and the fear of similar crises in the process of globalization has brought the subject to the attention of economists to a greater extent. This paper introduces an early warning system for detection and forecasting of financial crisis as an impirical diagnostic tool of macroeconomic policy in Iran. The system is developed with reference to literature review in other countries, and on the basis of “Signal Extraction” and “Financial Crises Probability Forecasting Methods”. In a simulation test our system was effective in detecting the crisis of 1993 two years ahead. This system may be further supplemented by using alternative econometric methods for future forecastings. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T17:46:49Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2b388078c74a4d8da673c27bf89871a8 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1726-0728 2476-6445 |
| language | fas |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T17:46:49Z |
| publishDate | 2004-01-01 |
| publisher | Allameh Tabataba'i University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | فصلنامه پژوهشهای اقتصادی ایران |
| spelling | doaj.art-2b388078c74a4d8da673c27bf89871a82024-01-02T10:27:35ZfasAllameh Tabataba'i University Pressفصلنامه پژوهشهای اقتصادی ایران1726-07282476-64452004-01-015171471743871An Early Warning System for Detection of Financial Crises in the Economy of IranMorteza Naderi0Head of Educational Office in Industrial and Mining BankDue to negative effects of financial crises on the real sectors of the economy, and the consequent recessionary impacts of them, the idea of forecasting financial crises via an early warning system has become a subject of interest to researchers. Financial crises of 1997 in South East Aisa, and the fear of similar crises in the process of globalization has brought the subject to the attention of economists to a greater extent. This paper introduces an early warning system for detection and forecasting of financial crisis as an impirical diagnostic tool of macroeconomic policy in Iran. The system is developed with reference to literature review in other countries, and on the basis of “Signal Extraction” and “Financial Crises Probability Forecasting Methods”. In a simulation test our system was effective in detecting the crisis of 1993 two years ahead. This system may be further supplemented by using alternative econometric methods for future forecastings.https://ijer.atu.ac.ir/article_3871_f923147963fa994868249d8572f85392.pdffinancial developmentfinancial crises |
| spellingShingle | Morteza Naderi An Early Warning System for Detection of Financial Crises in the Economy of Iran فصلنامه پژوهشهای اقتصادی ایران financial development financial crises |
| title | An Early Warning System for Detection of Financial Crises in the Economy of Iran |
| title_full | An Early Warning System for Detection of Financial Crises in the Economy of Iran |
| title_fullStr | An Early Warning System for Detection of Financial Crises in the Economy of Iran |
| title_full_unstemmed | An Early Warning System for Detection of Financial Crises in the Economy of Iran |
| title_short | An Early Warning System for Detection of Financial Crises in the Economy of Iran |
| title_sort | early warning system for detection of financial crises in the economy of iran |
| topic | financial development financial crises |
| url | https://ijer.atu.ac.ir/article_3871_f923147963fa994868249d8572f85392.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mortezanaderi anearlywarningsystemfordetectionoffinancialcrisesintheeconomyofiran AT mortezanaderi earlywarningsystemfordetectionoffinancialcrisesintheeconomyofiran |