Quantifying global carbon dioxide removal deployment
Despite the importance of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in most climate change mitigation scenarios that limit warming to well below 2 °C, the study of CDR is still a nascent field with basic questions to be resolved. Crucially, it is not known how much CDR is currently deployed at a global scale, no...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acb450 |
| _version_ | 1827869624206622720 |
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| author | Carter M Powis Stephen M Smith Jan C Minx Thomas Gasser |
| author_facet | Carter M Powis Stephen M Smith Jan C Minx Thomas Gasser |
| author_sort | Carter M Powis |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Despite the importance of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in most climate change mitigation scenarios that limit warming to well below 2 °C, the study of CDR is still a nascent field with basic questions to be resolved. Crucially, it is not known how much CDR is currently deployed at a global scale, nor how that compares to mitigation scenario estimates. Here, we address this problem by developing an estimate of global current CDR activity. We draw on national greenhouse gas inventory data combined with CDR registries and commercial databases to estimate that global anthropogenic activity presently generates ∼1985 MtCO _2 yr ^−1 of atmospheric removals. Almost all of these—1983 MtCO _2 yr ^−1 —are removals from land-use, land-use change and forestry. Non-land-management CDR projects such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, direct air capture with carbon capture and storage and biochar remove only about 2 MtCO _2 yr ^−1 . We compare this estimate with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways projections of CDR deployed in ‘well-below 2°C’ mitigation pathways. In so doing we demonstrate current CDR deployment would need to grow exponentially to keep the world aligned with most ‘well-below 2°C’ scenarios, which see CDR deployment growing between 75% and 100% per year between 2020 and 2030, adding ∼300–2500 MtCO _2 in total CDR capacity. To conclude we discuss uncertainties related to our estimates, and suggest priorities for the future collection and management of CDR data, particularly related to the role of the land sink in generating CDR. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:47:42Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2b7ca911450140cdb0381460933ef390 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:47:42Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-2b7ca911450140cdb0381460933ef3902023-08-09T15:21:37ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262023-01-0118202402210.1088/1748-9326/acb450Quantifying global carbon dioxide removal deploymentCarter M Powis0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2391-824XStephen M Smith1Jan C Minx2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2862-0178Thomas Gasser3Environmental Change Institute (ECI), University of Oxford , Oxford, United KingdomSmith School for Enterprise and the Environment (SEE), University of Oxford , Oxford, United KingdomMercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC) , Berlin, GermanyInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) , Laxenburg, AustriaDespite the importance of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in most climate change mitigation scenarios that limit warming to well below 2 °C, the study of CDR is still a nascent field with basic questions to be resolved. Crucially, it is not known how much CDR is currently deployed at a global scale, nor how that compares to mitigation scenario estimates. Here, we address this problem by developing an estimate of global current CDR activity. We draw on national greenhouse gas inventory data combined with CDR registries and commercial databases to estimate that global anthropogenic activity presently generates ∼1985 MtCO _2 yr ^−1 of atmospheric removals. Almost all of these—1983 MtCO _2 yr ^−1 —are removals from land-use, land-use change and forestry. Non-land-management CDR projects such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, direct air capture with carbon capture and storage and biochar remove only about 2 MtCO _2 yr ^−1 . We compare this estimate with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways projections of CDR deployed in ‘well-below 2°C’ mitigation pathways. In so doing we demonstrate current CDR deployment would need to grow exponentially to keep the world aligned with most ‘well-below 2°C’ scenarios, which see CDR deployment growing between 75% and 100% per year between 2020 and 2030, adding ∼300–2500 MtCO _2 in total CDR capacity. To conclude we discuss uncertainties related to our estimates, and suggest priorities for the future collection and management of CDR data, particularly related to the role of the land sink in generating CDR.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acb450carbon dioxide removalnegative emissionsdeploymentaccounting |
| spellingShingle | Carter M Powis Stephen M Smith Jan C Minx Thomas Gasser Quantifying global carbon dioxide removal deployment Environmental Research Letters carbon dioxide removal negative emissions deployment accounting |
| title | Quantifying global carbon dioxide removal deployment |
| title_full | Quantifying global carbon dioxide removal deployment |
| title_fullStr | Quantifying global carbon dioxide removal deployment |
| title_full_unstemmed | Quantifying global carbon dioxide removal deployment |
| title_short | Quantifying global carbon dioxide removal deployment |
| title_sort | quantifying global carbon dioxide removal deployment |
| topic | carbon dioxide removal negative emissions deployment accounting |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acb450 |
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