An assessment of the LICOM Forecast System under the IVTT class4 framework
This paper evaluates LFS (LICOM Forecast System) forecasts and compares them with other marine forecast systems under the IVTT (Intercomparison and Validation Task Team) Class 4 framework. LFS delivers real-time daily forecasts driven by the GFS (Global Forecast System) atmospheric analyses and surf...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Frontiers Media S.A.
2023-05-01
|
| Series: | Frontiers in Marine Science |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2023.1112025/full |
| _version_ | 1797833026760081408 |
|---|---|
| author | Weipeng Zheng Weipeng Zheng Weipeng Zheng Pengfei Lin Pengfei Lin Hailong Liu Hailong Liu Hailong Liu Yihua Luan Jinfeng Ma Huier Mo Juan Liu |
| author_facet | Weipeng Zheng Weipeng Zheng Weipeng Zheng Pengfei Lin Pengfei Lin Hailong Liu Hailong Liu Hailong Liu Yihua Luan Jinfeng Ma Huier Mo Juan Liu |
| author_sort | Weipeng Zheng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper evaluates LFS (LICOM Forecast System) forecasts and compares them with other marine forecast systems under the IVTT (Intercomparison and Validation Task Team) Class 4 framework. LFS delivers real-time daily forecasts driven by the GFS (Global Forecast System) atmospheric analyses and surface forecasts. The nudging method in LFS provides the initial state for forecasting, with only the temperature and salinity restored towards the Mercator PSY4 daily analyses. Assessments show that LFS demonstrates a reasonably good capability in short-term marine environment forecast. For the leading 1-6 days forecasts, the root mean square error (RMSE) ranges between 0.53-0.63°C, 0.57-0.66°C and 0.12-0.13 psu for the sea surface temperature, temperature, and salinity profiles, respectively. The overall performance is comparable to other major marine forecast systems, with a slight advantage in forecasting the temperature and salinity profiles. Different nudging time scales are applied to the upper ocean and deep ocean to preserve the effects of mesoscale processes and correct the large-scale biases in temperature and salinity. However, the absence of other observational constraints, such as the sea level height, significantly affects the regional forecast features. Further analyses are required to improve the performance, and the integration of an assimilation system into LFS is urgently needed. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-09T14:17:07Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2b91a2b4898a47709a3cb678a7bb6003 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-7745 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-09T14:17:07Z |
| publishDate | 2023-05-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Marine Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-2b91a2b4898a47709a3cb678a7bb60032023-05-05T06:01:12ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Marine Science2296-77452023-05-011010.3389/fmars.2023.11120251112025An assessment of the LICOM Forecast System under the IVTT class4 frameworkWeipeng Zheng0Weipeng Zheng1Weipeng Zheng2Pengfei Lin3Pengfei Lin4Hailong Liu5Hailong Liu6Hailong Liu7Yihua Luan8Jinfeng Ma9Huier Mo10Juan Liu11State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaCollege of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaEarth System Numerical Simulation Science Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaCollege of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaCollege of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaCenter for Ocean Mega-Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, ChinaEarth System Numerical Simulation Science Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaNational Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing, ChinaBeijing Institute of Applied Meteorology, Beijing, ChinaThis paper evaluates LFS (LICOM Forecast System) forecasts and compares them with other marine forecast systems under the IVTT (Intercomparison and Validation Task Team) Class 4 framework. LFS delivers real-time daily forecasts driven by the GFS (Global Forecast System) atmospheric analyses and surface forecasts. The nudging method in LFS provides the initial state for forecasting, with only the temperature and salinity restored towards the Mercator PSY4 daily analyses. Assessments show that LFS demonstrates a reasonably good capability in short-term marine environment forecast. For the leading 1-6 days forecasts, the root mean square error (RMSE) ranges between 0.53-0.63°C, 0.57-0.66°C and 0.12-0.13 psu for the sea surface temperature, temperature, and salinity profiles, respectively. The overall performance is comparable to other major marine forecast systems, with a slight advantage in forecasting the temperature and salinity profiles. Different nudging time scales are applied to the upper ocean and deep ocean to preserve the effects of mesoscale processes and correct the large-scale biases in temperature and salinity. However, the absence of other observational constraints, such as the sea level height, significantly affects the regional forecast features. Further analyses are required to improve the performance, and the integration of an assimilation system into LFS is urgently needed.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2023.1112025/fullLFSmarine forecasteddy-resolvingIVTTARGOLICOM |
| spellingShingle | Weipeng Zheng Weipeng Zheng Weipeng Zheng Pengfei Lin Pengfei Lin Hailong Liu Hailong Liu Hailong Liu Yihua Luan Jinfeng Ma Huier Mo Juan Liu An assessment of the LICOM Forecast System under the IVTT class4 framework Frontiers in Marine Science LFS marine forecast eddy-resolving IVTT ARGO LICOM |
| title | An assessment of the LICOM Forecast System under the IVTT class4 framework |
| title_full | An assessment of the LICOM Forecast System under the IVTT class4 framework |
| title_fullStr | An assessment of the LICOM Forecast System under the IVTT class4 framework |
| title_full_unstemmed | An assessment of the LICOM Forecast System under the IVTT class4 framework |
| title_short | An assessment of the LICOM Forecast System under the IVTT class4 framework |
| title_sort | assessment of the licom forecast system under the ivtt class4 framework |
| topic | LFS marine forecast eddy-resolving IVTT ARGO LICOM |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2023.1112025/full |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT weipengzheng anassessmentofthelicomforecastsystemundertheivttclass4framework AT weipengzheng anassessmentofthelicomforecastsystemundertheivttclass4framework AT weipengzheng anassessmentofthelicomforecastsystemundertheivttclass4framework AT pengfeilin anassessmentofthelicomforecastsystemundertheivttclass4framework AT pengfeilin anassessmentofthelicomforecastsystemundertheivttclass4framework AT hailongliu anassessmentofthelicomforecastsystemundertheivttclass4framework AT hailongliu anassessmentofthelicomforecastsystemundertheivttclass4framework AT hailongliu anassessmentofthelicomforecastsystemundertheivttclass4framework AT yihualuan anassessmentofthelicomforecastsystemundertheivttclass4framework AT jinfengma anassessmentofthelicomforecastsystemundertheivttclass4framework AT huiermo anassessmentofthelicomforecastsystemundertheivttclass4framework AT juanliu anassessmentofthelicomforecastsystemundertheivttclass4framework AT weipengzheng assessmentofthelicomforecastsystemundertheivttclass4framework AT weipengzheng assessmentofthelicomforecastsystemundertheivttclass4framework AT weipengzheng assessmentofthelicomforecastsystemundertheivttclass4framework AT pengfeilin assessmentofthelicomforecastsystemundertheivttclass4framework AT pengfeilin assessmentofthelicomforecastsystemundertheivttclass4framework AT hailongliu assessmentofthelicomforecastsystemundertheivttclass4framework AT hailongliu assessmentofthelicomforecastsystemundertheivttclass4framework AT hailongliu assessmentofthelicomforecastsystemundertheivttclass4framework AT yihualuan assessmentofthelicomforecastsystemundertheivttclass4framework AT jinfengma assessmentofthelicomforecastsystemundertheivttclass4framework AT huiermo assessmentofthelicomforecastsystemundertheivttclass4framework AT juanliu assessmentofthelicomforecastsystemundertheivttclass4framework |