Predicting the potential distribution of the fall armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) under climate change in China
The fall armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) is a severe agricultural pest originating from tropical and subtropical America, and it invaded China in December 2018. In this paper, an optimized MaxEnt model was used to simulate the potential distribution of S. frugiperda under current and fut...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Global Ecology and Conservation |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351989421005448 |
| _version_ | 1798024589805092864 |
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| author | Chunxian Jiang Xueyan Zhang Wenqi Xie Rulin Wang Chuanhong Feng Li Ma Qing Li Qunfang Yang Haijian Wang |
| author_facet | Chunxian Jiang Xueyan Zhang Wenqi Xie Rulin Wang Chuanhong Feng Li Ma Qing Li Qunfang Yang Haijian Wang |
| author_sort | Chunxian Jiang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The fall armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) is a severe agricultural pest originating from tropical and subtropical America, and it invaded China in December 2018. In this paper, an optimized MaxEnt model was used to simulate the potential distribution of S. frugiperda under current and future climatic conditions based on the global distribution data for S. frugiperda and the latest version of WorldClim climate data. The results showed that the potential distribution area of S. frugiperda in China was 309.19 million hm2, accounting for 32.23% of the total area of the country. The potential distribution areas were primarily distributed over the range of 88.96°~125.04°E and 18.19°~41.15°N in South China, Central China, East China, eastern Southwest China, and parts of Northwest China. The high-suitability areas were primarily distributed in South China, Central China, East China and eastern parts of Southwest China. Among the environmental factors, bio11 (mean temperature in the coldest quarter) and bio12 (annual precipitation) were the main factors affecting the potential distribution of S. frugiperda. Under different future scenarios, the potential distribution areas of S. frugiperda in China will expand northward by 1.16°~5.34°. The total suitable area for S. frugiperda is expected to increase by 5.85~23.44%. The high-suitability and low-suitability areas will increase by 15.45~61.27% and 10.46~127.39%, respectively. In addition, the medium-suitability areas will decrease between 7.94% and 53.79%. And the unsuitable area will decrease between 3.09% and 17.06%. Some of the medium-suitability areas will change to high-suitability areas. This study clarified the trends in the range, area and grade of the potential distribution area of S. frugiperda in China, and it provides a theoretical basis and practical guidance for the monitoring and control of S. frugiperda. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T18:06:09Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2b991f96583b4ac18265d173af268d27 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2351-9894 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T18:06:09Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Global Ecology and Conservation |
| spelling | doaj.art-2b991f96583b4ac18265d173af268d272022-12-22T04:10:20ZengElsevierGlobal Ecology and Conservation2351-98942022-01-0133e01994Predicting the potential distribution of the fall armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) under climate change in ChinaChunxian Jiang0Xueyan Zhang1Wenqi Xie2Rulin Wang3Chuanhong Feng4Li Ma5Qing Li6Qunfang Yang7Haijian Wang8College of Agronomy, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, PR China; Correspondence to: College of Agronomy, Sichuan Agricultural University, 211 Huimin Road, Chengdu 611130, Sichuan, PR China.College of Agronomy, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, PR ChinaCollege of Agronomy, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, PR ChinaSichuan Provincial Rural Economic Information Center, Chengdu 610072, PR ChinaPlant Protection Station of Sichuan Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Chengdu 610041, PR ChinaPlant Protection Station of Sichuan Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Chengdu 610041, PR ChinaCollege of Agronomy, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, PR ChinaCollege of Agronomy, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, PR ChinaCollege of Agronomy, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, PR ChinaThe fall armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) is a severe agricultural pest originating from tropical and subtropical America, and it invaded China in December 2018. In this paper, an optimized MaxEnt model was used to simulate the potential distribution of S. frugiperda under current and future climatic conditions based on the global distribution data for S. frugiperda and the latest version of WorldClim climate data. The results showed that the potential distribution area of S. frugiperda in China was 309.19 million hm2, accounting for 32.23% of the total area of the country. The potential distribution areas were primarily distributed over the range of 88.96°~125.04°E and 18.19°~41.15°N in South China, Central China, East China, eastern Southwest China, and parts of Northwest China. The high-suitability areas were primarily distributed in South China, Central China, East China and eastern parts of Southwest China. Among the environmental factors, bio11 (mean temperature in the coldest quarter) and bio12 (annual precipitation) were the main factors affecting the potential distribution of S. frugiperda. Under different future scenarios, the potential distribution areas of S. frugiperda in China will expand northward by 1.16°~5.34°. The total suitable area for S. frugiperda is expected to increase by 5.85~23.44%. The high-suitability and low-suitability areas will increase by 15.45~61.27% and 10.46~127.39%, respectively. In addition, the medium-suitability areas will decrease between 7.94% and 53.79%. And the unsuitable area will decrease between 3.09% and 17.06%. Some of the medium-suitability areas will change to high-suitability areas. This study clarified the trends in the range, area and grade of the potential distribution area of S. frugiperda in China, and it provides a theoretical basis and practical guidance for the monitoring and control of S. frugiperda.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351989421005448Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith)Potential distributionMaxEnt modelClimate changeChina |
| spellingShingle | Chunxian Jiang Xueyan Zhang Wenqi Xie Rulin Wang Chuanhong Feng Li Ma Qing Li Qunfang Yang Haijian Wang Predicting the potential distribution of the fall armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) under climate change in China Global Ecology and Conservation Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) Potential distribution MaxEnt model Climate change China |
| title | Predicting the potential distribution of the fall armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) under climate change in China |
| title_full | Predicting the potential distribution of the fall armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) under climate change in China |
| title_fullStr | Predicting the potential distribution of the fall armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) under climate change in China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicting the potential distribution of the fall armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) under climate change in China |
| title_short | Predicting the potential distribution of the fall armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) under climate change in China |
| title_sort | predicting the potential distribution of the fall armyworm spodoptera frugiperda j e smith under climate change in china |
| topic | Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) Potential distribution MaxEnt model Climate change China |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351989421005448 |
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