Evaluating permafrost definitions for global permafrost area estimates in CMIP6 climate models
Global permafrost regions are undergoing significant changes due to global warming, whose assessments often rely on permafrost extent estimates derived from climate model simulations. These assessments employ a range of definitions for the presence of permafrost, leading to inconsistencies in the ca...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad10d7 |
| _version_ | 1797400639784878080 |
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| author | Norman J Steinert Matvey V Debolskiy Eleanor J Burke Félix García-Pereira Hanna Lee |
| author_facet | Norman J Steinert Matvey V Debolskiy Eleanor J Burke Félix García-Pereira Hanna Lee |
| author_sort | Norman J Steinert |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Global permafrost regions are undergoing significant changes due to global warming, whose assessments often rely on permafrost extent estimates derived from climate model simulations. These assessments employ a range of definitions for the presence of permafrost, leading to inconsistencies in the calculation of permafrost area. Here, we present permafrost area calculations using 10 different definitions for detecting permafrost presence based on either ground thermodynamics, soil hydrology, or air–ground coupling from an ensemble of 32 Earth system models. We find that variations between permafrost-presence definitions result in substantial differences of up to 18 million km ^2 , where any given model could both over- or underestimate the present-day permafrost area. Ground-thermodynamic-based definitions are, on average, comparable with observations but are subject to a large inter-model spread. The associated uncertainty of permafrost area estimates is reduced in definitions based on ground–air coupling. However, their representation of permafrost area strongly depends on how each model represents the ground–air coupling processes. The definition-based spread in permafrost area can affect estimates of permafrost-related impacts and feedbacks, such as quantifying permafrost carbon changes. For instance, the definition spread in permafrost area estimates can lead to differences in simulated permafrost-area soil carbon changes of up to 28%. We therefore emphasize the importance of consistent and well-justified permafrost-presence definitions for robust projections and accurate assessments of permafrost from climate model outputs. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T01:58:27Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2bc48fef06a04c5da4edfe2f33dcd27f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T01:58:27Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-2bc48fef06a04c5da4edfe2f33dcd27f2023-12-08T10:23:22ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262023-01-0119101403310.1088/1748-9326/ad10d7Evaluating permafrost definitions for global permafrost area estimates in CMIP6 climate modelsNorman J Steinert0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2154-5857Matvey V Debolskiy1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9634-3627Eleanor J Burke2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2158-141XFélix García-Pereira3https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8491-1175Hanna Lee4https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2003-4377NORCE Norwegian Research Centre AS, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research , Bergen, NorwayNORCE Norwegian Research Centre AS, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research , Bergen, Norway; Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo , Oslo, NorwayMet Office Hadley Centre , Exeter, United KingdomComplutense University of Madrid, Geosciences Institute IGEO (UCM-CSIC) , Madrid, SpainNORCE Norwegian Research Centre AS, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research , Bergen, Norway; Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology , Trondheim, NorwayGlobal permafrost regions are undergoing significant changes due to global warming, whose assessments often rely on permafrost extent estimates derived from climate model simulations. These assessments employ a range of definitions for the presence of permafrost, leading to inconsistencies in the calculation of permafrost area. Here, we present permafrost area calculations using 10 different definitions for detecting permafrost presence based on either ground thermodynamics, soil hydrology, or air–ground coupling from an ensemble of 32 Earth system models. We find that variations between permafrost-presence definitions result in substantial differences of up to 18 million km ^2 , where any given model could both over- or underestimate the present-day permafrost area. Ground-thermodynamic-based definitions are, on average, comparable with observations but are subject to a large inter-model spread. The associated uncertainty of permafrost area estimates is reduced in definitions based on ground–air coupling. However, their representation of permafrost area strongly depends on how each model represents the ground–air coupling processes. The definition-based spread in permafrost area can affect estimates of permafrost-related impacts and feedbacks, such as quantifying permafrost carbon changes. For instance, the definition spread in permafrost area estimates can lead to differences in simulated permafrost-area soil carbon changes of up to 28%. We therefore emphasize the importance of consistent and well-justified permafrost-presence definitions for robust projections and accurate assessments of permafrost from climate model outputs.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad10d7permafrostfrozen groundEarth system modelssoil thermodynamicsground temperaturescryosphere |
| spellingShingle | Norman J Steinert Matvey V Debolskiy Eleanor J Burke Félix García-Pereira Hanna Lee Evaluating permafrost definitions for global permafrost area estimates in CMIP6 climate models Environmental Research Letters permafrost frozen ground Earth system models soil thermodynamics ground temperatures cryosphere |
| title | Evaluating permafrost definitions for global permafrost area estimates in CMIP6 climate models |
| title_full | Evaluating permafrost definitions for global permafrost area estimates in CMIP6 climate models |
| title_fullStr | Evaluating permafrost definitions for global permafrost area estimates in CMIP6 climate models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluating permafrost definitions for global permafrost area estimates in CMIP6 climate models |
| title_short | Evaluating permafrost definitions for global permafrost area estimates in CMIP6 climate models |
| title_sort | evaluating permafrost definitions for global permafrost area estimates in cmip6 climate models |
| topic | permafrost frozen ground Earth system models soil thermodynamics ground temperatures cryosphere |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad10d7 |
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