The long-term development of avalanche risk in settlements considering the temporal variability of damage potential
Recent studies on the avalanche risk in alpine settlements suggested a strong dependency of the development of risk on variations in damage potential. Based on these findings, analyses on probable maximum losses in avalanche-prone areas of the municipality of Davos (CH) were used as an indicator for...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2005-01-01
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| Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/5/893/2005/nhess-5-893-2005.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818683888599302144 |
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| author | S. Fuchs M. Keiler A. Zischg M. Bründl |
| author_facet | S. Fuchs M. Keiler A. Zischg M. Bründl |
| author_sort | S. Fuchs |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Recent studies on the avalanche risk in alpine settlements suggested a strong dependency of the development of risk on variations in damage potential. Based on these findings, analyses on probable maximum losses in avalanche-prone areas of the municipality of Davos (CH) were used as an indicator for the long-term development of values at risk. Even if the results were subject to significant uncertainties, they underlined the dependency of today's risk on the historical development of land-use: Small changes in the lateral extent of endangered areas had a considerable impact on the exposure of values. In a second step, temporal variations in damage potential between 1950 and 2000 were compared in two different study areas representing typical alpine socio-economic development patterns: Davos (CH) and Galtür (A). The resulting trends were found to be similar; the damage potential increased significantly in number and value. Thus, the development of natural risk in settlements can for a major part be attributed to long-term shifts in damage potential. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-17T10:41:54Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2bc53d0600b54f36b39ee8319f272afd |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-17T10:41:54Z |
| publishDate | 2005-01-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-2bc53d0600b54f36b39ee8319f272afd2022-12-21T21:52:13ZengCopernicus PublicationsNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences1561-86331684-99812005-01-0156893901The long-term development of avalanche risk in settlements considering the temporal variability of damage potentialS. FuchsM. KeilerA. ZischgM. BründlRecent studies on the avalanche risk in alpine settlements suggested a strong dependency of the development of risk on variations in damage potential. Based on these findings, analyses on probable maximum losses in avalanche-prone areas of the municipality of Davos (CH) were used as an indicator for the long-term development of values at risk. Even if the results were subject to significant uncertainties, they underlined the dependency of today's risk on the historical development of land-use: Small changes in the lateral extent of endangered areas had a considerable impact on the exposure of values. In a second step, temporal variations in damage potential between 1950 and 2000 were compared in two different study areas representing typical alpine socio-economic development patterns: Davos (CH) and Galtür (A). The resulting trends were found to be similar; the damage potential increased significantly in number and value. Thus, the development of natural risk in settlements can for a major part be attributed to long-term shifts in damage potential.http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/5/893/2005/nhess-5-893-2005.pdf |
| spellingShingle | S. Fuchs M. Keiler A. Zischg M. Bründl The long-term development of avalanche risk in settlements considering the temporal variability of damage potential Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| title | The long-term development of avalanche risk in settlements considering the temporal variability of damage potential |
| title_full | The long-term development of avalanche risk in settlements considering the temporal variability of damage potential |
| title_fullStr | The long-term development of avalanche risk in settlements considering the temporal variability of damage potential |
| title_full_unstemmed | The long-term development of avalanche risk in settlements considering the temporal variability of damage potential |
| title_short | The long-term development of avalanche risk in settlements considering the temporal variability of damage potential |
| title_sort | long term development of avalanche risk in settlements considering the temporal variability of damage potential |
| url | http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/5/893/2005/nhess-5-893-2005.pdf |
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