SUSPENSION OF START III IN CONTEXT OF THE DETERRENCE THEORY
The article examines the prospects for changing the security balance after Russia’s sus- pension of the START Treaty. The author analyzes the possibilities of creating asymmetric advan- tages for Russia from the positions of offensive and defensive realism, the theory of deterrence and the bargainin...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | Russian |
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Institute of Europe Russian Academy of Sciences
2024-02-01
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| Series: | Научно-аналитический вестник Института Европы РАН |
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| Online Access: | http://vestnikieran.instituteofeurope.ru/images/1-2024/Grafov12024.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797236773823184896 |
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| author | Dmitry B. Grafov |
| author_facet | Dmitry B. Grafov |
| author_sort | Dmitry B. Grafov |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The article examines the prospects for changing the security balance after Russia’s sus- pension of the START Treaty. The author analyzes the possibilities of creating asymmetric advan- tages for Russia from the positions of offensive and defensive realism, the theory of deterrence and the bargaining model of war in order to change the hostile position of the United States. Obviously, strategic stability cannot be maintained without taking into account the confrontation between Rus- sia and the United States over Ukraine and the desire to defeat Russia at the hands of Ukraine. Fol- lowing the theory of deterrence, Russia can create a number of asymmetric advantages (defensive and offensive) that can pose a threat to US interests and change the architecture of strategic stabil- ity. Asymmetric advantages are seen as preparation for actions sensitive to the US security – as in- formation, warning signal, that exerts pressure. The hypothesis is put forward about the effect of an asymmetric advantage on a change the policy of the opposite side, if the perception of the future benefits of continuing the policy is less than the perception of future losses. The opposite side can change its policy if the threat of the deterrent side leaves no doubt. The threat can achieve its goal if all parties (NATO members, third parties) draw conclusions from its reality. The reaction of third parties is of great importance for Russia and the United States. Asymmetric measures, that create a threat, are a sequence of actions, not verbal threats that are not supported by information about actual preparations. It is important for Russia to convince the United States that all asymmetric measures are only counterbalance of American policy. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T17:09:11Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2c1d70284c154904a0ffa01be1595952 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2618-7914 |
| language | Russian |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T17:09:11Z |
| publishDate | 2024-02-01 |
| publisher | Institute of Europe Russian Academy of Sciences |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Научно-аналитический вестник Института Европы РАН |
| spelling | doaj.art-2c1d70284c154904a0ffa01be15959522024-03-28T14:06:02ZrusInstitute of Europe Russian Academy of SciencesНаучно-аналитический вестник Института Европы РАН2618-79142024-02-01 FOREIGN POLICY AND SECURITY1 (37)253910.15211/vestnikieran120242539SUSPENSION OF START III IN CONTEXT OF THE DETERRENCE THEORYDmitry B. Grafov0Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, RussiaThe article examines the prospects for changing the security balance after Russia’s sus- pension of the START Treaty. The author analyzes the possibilities of creating asymmetric advan- tages for Russia from the positions of offensive and defensive realism, the theory of deterrence and the bargaining model of war in order to change the hostile position of the United States. Obviously, strategic stability cannot be maintained without taking into account the confrontation between Rus- sia and the United States over Ukraine and the desire to defeat Russia at the hands of Ukraine. Fol- lowing the theory of deterrence, Russia can create a number of asymmetric advantages (defensive and offensive) that can pose a threat to US interests and change the architecture of strategic stabil- ity. Asymmetric advantages are seen as preparation for actions sensitive to the US security – as in- formation, warning signal, that exerts pressure. The hypothesis is put forward about the effect of an asymmetric advantage on a change the policy of the opposite side, if the perception of the future benefits of continuing the policy is less than the perception of future losses. The opposite side can change its policy if the threat of the deterrent side leaves no doubt. The threat can achieve its goal if all parties (NATO members, third parties) draw conclusions from its reality. The reaction of third parties is of great importance for Russia and the United States. Asymmetric measures, that create a threat, are a sequence of actions, not verbal threats that are not supported by information about actual preparations. It is important for Russia to convince the United States that all asymmetric measures are only counterbalance of American policy.http://vestnikieran.instituteofeurope.ru/images/1-2024/Grafov12024.pdfnew start treatydeterrencesecurity balancesignal functionasymmetric ad- vantageoffensive realismdefensive realismbargaining model of war. |
| spellingShingle | Dmitry B. Grafov SUSPENSION OF START III IN CONTEXT OF THE DETERRENCE THEORY Научно-аналитический вестник Института Европы РАН new start treaty deterrence security balance signal function asymmetric ad- vantage offensive realism defensive realism bargaining model of war. |
| title | SUSPENSION OF START III IN CONTEXT OF THE DETERRENCE THEORY |
| title_full | SUSPENSION OF START III IN CONTEXT OF THE DETERRENCE THEORY |
| title_fullStr | SUSPENSION OF START III IN CONTEXT OF THE DETERRENCE THEORY |
| title_full_unstemmed | SUSPENSION OF START III IN CONTEXT OF THE DETERRENCE THEORY |
| title_short | SUSPENSION OF START III IN CONTEXT OF THE DETERRENCE THEORY |
| title_sort | suspension of start iii in context of the deterrence theory |
| topic | new start treaty deterrence security balance signal function asymmetric ad- vantage offensive realism defensive realism bargaining model of war. |
| url | http://vestnikieran.instituteofeurope.ru/images/1-2024/Grafov12024.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT dmitrybgrafov suspensionofstartiiiincontextofthedeterrencetheory |