Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for gallbladder cancer patients after surgery
Abstract Background Gallbladder cancer is associated with late diagnosis and poor prognosis. Current study aims to develop a prognostic nomogram for predicting survival of gallbladder cancer patients after surgery. Methods Two large cohorts were included in this analysis. One consisted of 1753 gallb...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2022-04-01
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| Series: | BMC Gastroenterology |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12876-022-02281-2 |
| _version_ | 1818047281229725696 |
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| author | Xinsen Xu Min He Hui Wang Ming Zhan Linhua Yang |
| author_facet | Xinsen Xu Min He Hui Wang Ming Zhan Linhua Yang |
| author_sort | Xinsen Xu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Gallbladder cancer is associated with late diagnosis and poor prognosis. Current study aims to develop a prognostic nomogram for predicting survival of gallbladder cancer patients after surgery. Methods Two large cohorts were included in this analysis. One consisted of 1753 gallbladder cancer patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, and the other consisted of 239 patients from Shanghai Renji hospital. Significant prognostic factors were identified and integrated to develop the nomogram. Then the model was subjected to bootstrap internal validation and external validation. Results Univariate and multivariate analysis indicated that age, tumor histology, T-stage, N-stage and M-stage were significant prognostic factors, which were all included to build the nomogram. The model showed good discrimination, with a concordance index (C-index) of 0.724 (95% CI, 0.708–0.740), and good calibration. Application of the nomogram in the validation cohort still presented good discrimination (C-index, 0.715 [95% CI 0.672–0.758]) and good calibration. In the primary cohort, the C-index of the nomogram was 0.724, which was significantly higher than the Nevin staging system (C-index = 0.671; P < 0.001) and the 8th TNM staging system (C-index = 0.682; P < 0.001). In the validation cohort, the C-index of the nomogram was 0.715, which was also higher than the Nevin staging system (C-index = 0.692; P < 0.05) and the 8th TNM staging system (C-index = 0.688; P = 0.06). Conclusions The proposed nomogram resulted in more-accurate prognostic prediction for patients with gallbladder cancer after surgery. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-10T10:03:18Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2c1f31fbab8043b68b7ccc52197d0558 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1471-230X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-10T10:03:18Z |
| publishDate | 2022-04-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Gastroenterology |
| spelling | doaj.art-2c1f31fbab8043b68b7ccc52197d05582022-12-22T01:53:19ZengBMCBMC Gastroenterology1471-230X2022-04-012211910.1186/s12876-022-02281-2Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for gallbladder cancer patients after surgeryXinsen Xu0Min He1Hui Wang2Ming Zhan3Linhua Yang4Department of Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery, Renji Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong UniversityDepartment of Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery, Renji Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong UniversityDepartment of Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery, Renji Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong UniversityDepartment of Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery, Renji Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong UniversityDepartment of Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery, Renji Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong UniversityAbstract Background Gallbladder cancer is associated with late diagnosis and poor prognosis. Current study aims to develop a prognostic nomogram for predicting survival of gallbladder cancer patients after surgery. Methods Two large cohorts were included in this analysis. One consisted of 1753 gallbladder cancer patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, and the other consisted of 239 patients from Shanghai Renji hospital. Significant prognostic factors were identified and integrated to develop the nomogram. Then the model was subjected to bootstrap internal validation and external validation. Results Univariate and multivariate analysis indicated that age, tumor histology, T-stage, N-stage and M-stage were significant prognostic factors, which were all included to build the nomogram. The model showed good discrimination, with a concordance index (C-index) of 0.724 (95% CI, 0.708–0.740), and good calibration. Application of the nomogram in the validation cohort still presented good discrimination (C-index, 0.715 [95% CI 0.672–0.758]) and good calibration. In the primary cohort, the C-index of the nomogram was 0.724, which was significantly higher than the Nevin staging system (C-index = 0.671; P < 0.001) and the 8th TNM staging system (C-index = 0.682; P < 0.001). In the validation cohort, the C-index of the nomogram was 0.715, which was also higher than the Nevin staging system (C-index = 0.692; P < 0.05) and the 8th TNM staging system (C-index = 0.688; P = 0.06). Conclusions The proposed nomogram resulted in more-accurate prognostic prediction for patients with gallbladder cancer after surgery.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12876-022-02281-2Gallbladder cancerPrognosisNomogramModel |
| spellingShingle | Xinsen Xu Min He Hui Wang Ming Zhan Linhua Yang Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for gallbladder cancer patients after surgery BMC Gastroenterology Gallbladder cancer Prognosis Nomogram Model |
| title | Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for gallbladder cancer patients after surgery |
| title_full | Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for gallbladder cancer patients after surgery |
| title_fullStr | Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for gallbladder cancer patients after surgery |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for gallbladder cancer patients after surgery |
| title_short | Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for gallbladder cancer patients after surgery |
| title_sort | development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for gallbladder cancer patients after surgery |
| topic | Gallbladder cancer Prognosis Nomogram Model |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12876-022-02281-2 |
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