G20 Economic Growth Analysis Using VECM
This study analyzes the effect of Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), Imports, Exports, and Government Expenditure of selected G20 member countries on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) using historical data from 1981 to 2021. The detailed analysis aims to explore the relationship between short-term and...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Universitas Airlangga, Departemen Ilmu Ekonomi Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis
2023-12-01
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| Series: | JIET (Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Terapan) |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://e-journal.unair.ac.id/JIET/article/view/50361 |
| _version_ | 1797397059825827840 |
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| author | Nancy Nikentary Dominique Carmen Ibanez Indrawati Buntaran Ameilia Nurhanifah Ferry Vincenttius Ferdinand |
| author_facet | Nancy Nikentary Dominique Carmen Ibanez Indrawati Buntaran Ameilia Nurhanifah Ferry Vincenttius Ferdinand |
| author_sort | Nancy Nikentary Dominique |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study analyzes the effect of Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), Imports, Exports, and Government Expenditure of selected G20 member countries on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) using historical data from 1981 to 2021. The detailed analysis aims to explore the relationship between short-term and long-term causality that begins with examining and testing the degree of integration, Unit Root Test, Johansen cointegration test, and causality test. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) test results with a 95% confidence interval show that Gross Fixed Capital Formation causes Australia’s and South Africa’s long-term GDPs to have reached a balance point. In addition, Government Spending also causes the European Union’s Gross Domestic Product to achieve a balance point. Imports affect the GDP of the United States, China, and South Africa towards a balance point, and exports affect the GDP of Australia, China, and South Africa. The test results using VECM also conclude that GDP, GFCF, exports, and imports affect GDP growth in the short term. However, on the contrary, on the Australian continent, only GDP, GFCF, and imports which in the previous year had an impact on Australia’s GDP in the short term—concluded that differences in government policies in each country in regulating the economy could affect the causal relationship between the independent variable and GDP in the short and long term. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T01:04:29Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2c6256c7841e45bfb12c5e44f2239c5f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2541-1470 2528-1879 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T01:04:29Z |
| publishDate | 2023-12-01 |
| publisher | Universitas Airlangga, Departemen Ilmu Ekonomi Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis |
| record_format | Article |
| series | JIET (Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Terapan) |
| spelling | doaj.art-2c6256c7841e45bfb12c5e44f2239c5f2023-12-11T11:03:29ZengUniversitas Airlangga, Departemen Ilmu Ekonomi Fakultas Ekonomi dan BisnisJIET (Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Terapan)2541-14702528-18792023-12-018233835910.20473/jiet.v8i2.5036148508G20 Economic Growth Analysis Using VECMNancy Nikentary Dominique0https://orcid.org/0009-0000-0741-2647Carmen Ibanez Indrawati Buntaran1https://orcid.org/0009-0008-1122-9464Ameilia Nurhanifah2Ferry Vincenttius Ferdinand3Department of Mathematics, Pelita Harapan University, Surabaya, IndonesiaDepartment of Mathematics, Pelita Harapan University, Surabaya, IndonesiaDepartment of Mathematics, Pelita Harapan University, Surabaya, IndonesiaDepartment of Mathematics, Pelita Harapan University, Surabaya, IndonesiaThis study analyzes the effect of Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), Imports, Exports, and Government Expenditure of selected G20 member countries on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) using historical data from 1981 to 2021. The detailed analysis aims to explore the relationship between short-term and long-term causality that begins with examining and testing the degree of integration, Unit Root Test, Johansen cointegration test, and causality test. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) test results with a 95% confidence interval show that Gross Fixed Capital Formation causes Australia’s and South Africa’s long-term GDPs to have reached a balance point. In addition, Government Spending also causes the European Union’s Gross Domestic Product to achieve a balance point. Imports affect the GDP of the United States, China, and South Africa towards a balance point, and exports affect the GDP of Australia, China, and South Africa. The test results using VECM also conclude that GDP, GFCF, exports, and imports affect GDP growth in the short term. However, on the contrary, on the Australian continent, only GDP, GFCF, and imports which in the previous year had an impact on Australia’s GDP in the short term—concluded that differences in government policies in each country in regulating the economy could affect the causal relationship between the independent variable and GDP in the short and long term.https://e-journal.unair.ac.id/JIET/article/view/50361vector error correction model (vecm)economic growthg20granger causality |
| spellingShingle | Nancy Nikentary Dominique Carmen Ibanez Indrawati Buntaran Ameilia Nurhanifah Ferry Vincenttius Ferdinand G20 Economic Growth Analysis Using VECM JIET (Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Terapan) vector error correction model (vecm) economic growth g20 granger causality |
| title | G20 Economic Growth Analysis Using VECM |
| title_full | G20 Economic Growth Analysis Using VECM |
| title_fullStr | G20 Economic Growth Analysis Using VECM |
| title_full_unstemmed | G20 Economic Growth Analysis Using VECM |
| title_short | G20 Economic Growth Analysis Using VECM |
| title_sort | g20 economic growth analysis using vecm |
| topic | vector error correction model (vecm) economic growth g20 granger causality |
| url | https://e-journal.unair.ac.id/JIET/article/view/50361 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT nancynikentarydominique g20economicgrowthanalysisusingvecm AT carmenibanezindrawatibuntaran g20economicgrowthanalysisusingvecm AT ameilianurhanifah g20economicgrowthanalysisusingvecm AT ferryvincenttiusferdinand g20economicgrowthanalysisusingvecm |