Climate change will exacerbate population exposure to future heat waves in the China-Pakistan economic corridor
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a climate change-sensitive region, facing frequent and intense heat waves (HWs). The CPEC is expected to experience a simultaneous increase in population and temperature in the coming decades, which could exacerbate human exposure to future HWs. However...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2023-06-01
|
| Series: | Weather and Climate Extremes |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094723000233 |
| _version_ | 1797816995747463168 |
|---|---|
| author | Safi Ullah Qinglong You Waheed Ullah D.A. Sachindra Amjad Ali Asher Samuel Bhatti Gohar Ali |
| author_facet | Safi Ullah Qinglong You Waheed Ullah D.A. Sachindra Amjad Ali Asher Samuel Bhatti Gohar Ali |
| author_sort | Safi Ullah |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a climate change-sensitive region, facing frequent and intense heat waves (HWs). The CPEC is expected to experience a simultaneous increase in population and temperature in the coming decades, which could exacerbate human exposure to future HWs. However, it is unknown how much of the population would likely be exposed to HWs in the CPEC under changing climate. This study used the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models and population projections to estimate population exposure to daytime, nighttime, and compound HWs in the CPEC during 2071–2100, relative to 1985–2014 under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The results indicate that the study region will probably experience the highest number of nighttime HWs, followed by daytime and compound HWs in the northern, southwestern, and southern parts of the CPEC. The largest population would likely be exposed in the eastern and southwestern CPEC under SSP3-70|SSP3, followed by SSP5-8.5|SSP5, SSP2-4.5|SSP2, and SSP1-2.6|SSP1. The results reveal that the climatic and interactive effects could significantly escalate the population exposure to future HWs in the CPEC. The probability of 2015-HWs-like events and population exposure to such extremes would probably be higher in the eastern CPEC. The return period of 2015-HW-like events would decrease, which indicates their frequent occurrence under the selected SSPs. The findings of the study highlight the need for urgent actions to limit greenhouse gas emissions and to adopt effective adaptation measures in order to avoid the negative consequences of HWs on the local population in the future. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T08:45:53Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2c67bf6b10a343d188487491c358204d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2212-0947 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T08:45:53Z |
| publishDate | 2023-06-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Weather and Climate Extremes |
| spelling | doaj.art-2c67bf6b10a343d188487491c358204d2023-05-30T04:05:23ZengElsevierWeather and Climate Extremes2212-09472023-06-0140100570Climate change will exacerbate population exposure to future heat waves in the China-Pakistan economic corridorSafi Ullah0Qinglong You1Waheed Ullah2D.A. Sachindra3Amjad Ali4Asher Samuel Bhatti5Gohar Ali6Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences/ Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200438, ChinaDepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences/ Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200438, China; CMA-FDU Joint Laboratory of Marine Meteorology, Shanghai, 200438, China; Corresponding author. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences/ Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200438, China.Faculty of Defense and Security, Rabdan Academy, P.O Box 1144646, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; Corresponding author.Department of Hydrology and Climatology, Faculty of Earth Sciences and Spatial Management, Maria Curie-Sklodowska University, al. Kraśnicka 2d, 20-718, Lublin, PolandCentre for Disaster Preparedness and Management, University of Peshawar, Peshawar, 25120, PakistanDepartment of Geology, Bacha Khan University Charsadda, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Pakistan, P.O. Box 20, Charsadda, 24420, PakistanPakistan Meteorological Department, Sector H-8/2, Islamabad, 44000, PakistanThe China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a climate change-sensitive region, facing frequent and intense heat waves (HWs). The CPEC is expected to experience a simultaneous increase in population and temperature in the coming decades, which could exacerbate human exposure to future HWs. However, it is unknown how much of the population would likely be exposed to HWs in the CPEC under changing climate. This study used the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models and population projections to estimate population exposure to daytime, nighttime, and compound HWs in the CPEC during 2071–2100, relative to 1985–2014 under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The results indicate that the study region will probably experience the highest number of nighttime HWs, followed by daytime and compound HWs in the northern, southwestern, and southern parts of the CPEC. The largest population would likely be exposed in the eastern and southwestern CPEC under SSP3-70|SSP3, followed by SSP5-8.5|SSP5, SSP2-4.5|SSP2, and SSP1-2.6|SSP1. The results reveal that the climatic and interactive effects could significantly escalate the population exposure to future HWs in the CPEC. The probability of 2015-HWs-like events and population exposure to such extremes would probably be higher in the eastern CPEC. The return period of 2015-HW-like events would decrease, which indicates their frequent occurrence under the selected SSPs. The findings of the study highlight the need for urgent actions to limit greenhouse gas emissions and to adopt effective adaptation measures in order to avoid the negative consequences of HWs on the local population in the future.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094723000233Population exposureHeat wavesChina-Pakistan Economic corridor (CPEC)Shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP)Coupled model intercomparison project 6 (CMIP6) |
| spellingShingle | Safi Ullah Qinglong You Waheed Ullah D.A. Sachindra Amjad Ali Asher Samuel Bhatti Gohar Ali Climate change will exacerbate population exposure to future heat waves in the China-Pakistan economic corridor Weather and Climate Extremes Population exposure Heat waves China-Pakistan Economic corridor (CPEC) Shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) Coupled model intercomparison project 6 (CMIP6) |
| title | Climate change will exacerbate population exposure to future heat waves in the China-Pakistan economic corridor |
| title_full | Climate change will exacerbate population exposure to future heat waves in the China-Pakistan economic corridor |
| title_fullStr | Climate change will exacerbate population exposure to future heat waves in the China-Pakistan economic corridor |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate change will exacerbate population exposure to future heat waves in the China-Pakistan economic corridor |
| title_short | Climate change will exacerbate population exposure to future heat waves in the China-Pakistan economic corridor |
| title_sort | climate change will exacerbate population exposure to future heat waves in the china pakistan economic corridor |
| topic | Population exposure Heat waves China-Pakistan Economic corridor (CPEC) Shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) Coupled model intercomparison project 6 (CMIP6) |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094723000233 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT safiullah climatechangewillexacerbatepopulationexposuretofutureheatwavesinthechinapakistaneconomiccorridor AT qinglongyou climatechangewillexacerbatepopulationexposuretofutureheatwavesinthechinapakistaneconomiccorridor AT waheedullah climatechangewillexacerbatepopulationexposuretofutureheatwavesinthechinapakistaneconomiccorridor AT dasachindra climatechangewillexacerbatepopulationexposuretofutureheatwavesinthechinapakistaneconomiccorridor AT amjadali climatechangewillexacerbatepopulationexposuretofutureheatwavesinthechinapakistaneconomiccorridor AT ashersamuelbhatti climatechangewillexacerbatepopulationexposuretofutureheatwavesinthechinapakistaneconomiccorridor AT goharali climatechangewillexacerbatepopulationexposuretofutureheatwavesinthechinapakistaneconomiccorridor |