Evaluation of the CMIP6 Precipitation Simulations Over Global Land
Abstract Precipitation's temporal and spatial patterns under climate change significantly impact global terrestrial ecology and human social activities. Climate models are essential tools for assessing the impacts of climate change and formulating policies to address climate change. The evaluat...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2022-08-01
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| Series: | Earth's Future |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002500 |
| _version_ | 1817996399330983936 |
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| author | Zhengyang Li Tie Liu Yue Huang Jiabin Peng Yunan Ling |
| author_facet | Zhengyang Li Tie Liu Yue Huang Jiabin Peng Yunan Ling |
| author_sort | Zhengyang Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Precipitation's temporal and spatial patterns under climate change significantly impact global terrestrial ecology and human social activities. Climate models are essential tools for assessing the impacts of climate change and formulating policies to address climate change. The evaluation results of historical climate model simulations can represent the reliability of their future simulations. This study evaluated the simulation capabilities of 41 historical All‐Forcing monthly precipitation simulations and three integrated models over global land in the Coupled Model Comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The results show that the simulation capability of global climate models (GCMs) in CMIP6 is highly variable overland around the world. This variability is manifested in two aspects: the spatial variability of the comprehensive simulation ability of each model in different geographical regions and climatic zones of the world and the significant difference in the simulation ability of different models in each region. These GCMs generally overestimate global monthly precipitation over land, with the exception of southeast Asia and tropical rainforest climate (Af), where all models underestimate monthly precipitation. Some GCMS can perform well regionally but poorly on the global scale. One example shows that EC‐Earth3's best capability at Cwc climatic zone, surpassing the integrated model, but failed to rank in the top 10 in 22 of the 29 climate zones. Our results highlight the need to select appropriate models for integration when conducting climate change studies at global and regional scales as a critical factor in studying climate change predictions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-14T02:21:44Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2c68d7ad53e64f59a2f389f0736e6600 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2328-4277 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-14T02:21:44Z |
| publishDate | 2022-08-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth's Future |
| spelling | doaj.art-2c68d7ad53e64f59a2f389f0736e66002022-12-22T02:18:01ZengWileyEarth's Future2328-42772022-08-01108n/an/a10.1029/2021EF002500Evaluation of the CMIP6 Precipitation Simulations Over Global LandZhengyang Li0Tie Liu1Yue Huang2Jiabin Peng3Yunan Ling4State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi ChinaState Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi ChinaState Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi ChinaState Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi ChinaState Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi ChinaAbstract Precipitation's temporal and spatial patterns under climate change significantly impact global terrestrial ecology and human social activities. Climate models are essential tools for assessing the impacts of climate change and formulating policies to address climate change. The evaluation results of historical climate model simulations can represent the reliability of their future simulations. This study evaluated the simulation capabilities of 41 historical All‐Forcing monthly precipitation simulations and three integrated models over global land in the Coupled Model Comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The results show that the simulation capability of global climate models (GCMs) in CMIP6 is highly variable overland around the world. This variability is manifested in two aspects: the spatial variability of the comprehensive simulation ability of each model in different geographical regions and climatic zones of the world and the significant difference in the simulation ability of different models in each region. These GCMs generally overestimate global monthly precipitation over land, with the exception of southeast Asia and tropical rainforest climate (Af), where all models underestimate monthly precipitation. Some GCMS can perform well regionally but poorly on the global scale. One example shows that EC‐Earth3's best capability at Cwc climatic zone, surpassing the integrated model, but failed to rank in the top 10 in 22 of the 29 climate zones. Our results highlight the need to select appropriate models for integration when conducting climate change studies at global and regional scales as a critical factor in studying climate change predictions.https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002500CMIP6performance evaluationprecipitationglobal scale |
| spellingShingle | Zhengyang Li Tie Liu Yue Huang Jiabin Peng Yunan Ling Evaluation of the CMIP6 Precipitation Simulations Over Global Land Earth's Future CMIP6 performance evaluation precipitation global scale |
| title | Evaluation of the CMIP6 Precipitation Simulations Over Global Land |
| title_full | Evaluation of the CMIP6 Precipitation Simulations Over Global Land |
| title_fullStr | Evaluation of the CMIP6 Precipitation Simulations Over Global Land |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluation of the CMIP6 Precipitation Simulations Over Global Land |
| title_short | Evaluation of the CMIP6 Precipitation Simulations Over Global Land |
| title_sort | evaluation of the cmip6 precipitation simulations over global land |
| topic | CMIP6 performance evaluation precipitation global scale |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002500 |
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