High-magnitude flooding across Britain since AD 1750
The last decade has witnessed severe flooding across much of the globe, but have these floods really been exceptional? Globally, relatively few instrumental river flow series extend beyond 50 years, with short records presenting significant challenges in determining flood risk from high-magnitude fl...
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2017-03-01
|
| Series: | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/21/1631/2017/hess-21-1631-2017.pdf |
| Summary: | The last decade has witnessed severe flooding across much of the globe, but
have these floods really been exceptional? Globally, relatively few
instrumental river flow series extend beyond 50 years, with short records
presenting significant challenges in determining flood risk from
high-magnitude floods. A perceived increase in extreme floods in recent
years has decreased public confidence in conventional flood risk estimates;
the results affect society (insurance costs), individuals (personal
vulnerability) and companies (e.g. water resource managers). Here, we show
how historical records from Britain have improved understanding of high-magnitude floods, by examining past spatial and temporal variability. The
findings identify that whilst recent floods are notable, several comparable
periods of increased flooding are identifiable historically, with periods of
greater frequency (flood-rich periods). Statistically significant
relationships between the British flood index, the Atlantic Meridional
Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation Index are identified. The use
of historical records identifies that the largest floods often transcend
single catchments affecting regions and that the current flood-rich period
is not unprecedented. |
|---|---|
| ISSN: | 1027-5606 1607-7938 |