Estimation of the incubation period of COVID-19 in Vietnam.
<h4>Objective</h4>To estimate the incubation period of Vietnamese confirmed COVID-19 cases.<h4>Methods</h4>Only confirmed COVID-19 cases who are Vietnamese and locally infected with available data on date of symptom onset and clearly defined window of possible SARS-CoV-2 expo...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2020-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0243889 |
| _version_ | 1819292576801357824 |
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| author | Long V Bui Ha T Nguyen Hagai Levine Ha N Nguyen Thu-Anh Nguyen Thuy P Nguyen Truong T Nguyen Toan T T Do Ngoc T Pham My Hanh Bui |
| author_facet | Long V Bui Ha T Nguyen Hagai Levine Ha N Nguyen Thu-Anh Nguyen Thuy P Nguyen Truong T Nguyen Toan T T Do Ngoc T Pham My Hanh Bui |
| author_sort | Long V Bui |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <h4>Objective</h4>To estimate the incubation period of Vietnamese confirmed COVID-19 cases.<h4>Methods</h4>Only confirmed COVID-19 cases who are Vietnamese and locally infected with available data on date of symptom onset and clearly defined window of possible SARS-CoV-2 exposure were included. We used three parametric forms with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method for Bayesian Inference to estimate incubation period for Vietnamese COVID-19 cases. Leave-one-out Information Criterion was used to assess the performance of three models.<h4>Results</h4>A total of 19 cases identified from 23 Jan 2020 to 13 April 2020 was included in our analysis. Average incubation periods estimated using different distribution model ranged from 6.0 days to 6.4 days with the Weibull distribution demonstrated the best fit to the data. The estimated mean of incubation period using Weibull distribution model was 6.4 days (95% credible interval (CrI): 4.89-8.5), standard deviation (SD) was 3.05 (95%CrI 3.05-5.30), median was 5.6, ranges from 1.35 to 13.04 days (2.5th to 97.5th percentiles). Extreme estimation of incubation periods is within 14 days from possible infection.<h4>Conclusion</h4>This analysis provides evidence for an average incubation period for COVID-19 of approximately 6.4 days. Our findings support existing guidelines for 14 days of quarantine of persons potentially exposed to SARS-CoV-2. Although for extreme cases, the quarantine period should be extended up to three weeks. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-24T03:56:44Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2c810814ecbb47a7ae43d145af4d260c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-24T03:56:44Z |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj.art-2c810814ecbb47a7ae43d145af4d260c2022-12-21T17:16:25ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032020-01-011512e024388910.1371/journal.pone.0243889Estimation of the incubation period of COVID-19 in Vietnam.Long V BuiHa T NguyenHagai LevineHa N NguyenThu-Anh NguyenThuy P NguyenTruong T NguyenToan T T DoNgoc T PhamMy Hanh Bui<h4>Objective</h4>To estimate the incubation period of Vietnamese confirmed COVID-19 cases.<h4>Methods</h4>Only confirmed COVID-19 cases who are Vietnamese and locally infected with available data on date of symptom onset and clearly defined window of possible SARS-CoV-2 exposure were included. We used three parametric forms with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method for Bayesian Inference to estimate incubation period for Vietnamese COVID-19 cases. Leave-one-out Information Criterion was used to assess the performance of three models.<h4>Results</h4>A total of 19 cases identified from 23 Jan 2020 to 13 April 2020 was included in our analysis. Average incubation periods estimated using different distribution model ranged from 6.0 days to 6.4 days with the Weibull distribution demonstrated the best fit to the data. The estimated mean of incubation period using Weibull distribution model was 6.4 days (95% credible interval (CrI): 4.89-8.5), standard deviation (SD) was 3.05 (95%CrI 3.05-5.30), median was 5.6, ranges from 1.35 to 13.04 days (2.5th to 97.5th percentiles). Extreme estimation of incubation periods is within 14 days from possible infection.<h4>Conclusion</h4>This analysis provides evidence for an average incubation period for COVID-19 of approximately 6.4 days. Our findings support existing guidelines for 14 days of quarantine of persons potentially exposed to SARS-CoV-2. Although for extreme cases, the quarantine period should be extended up to three weeks.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0243889 |
| spellingShingle | Long V Bui Ha T Nguyen Hagai Levine Ha N Nguyen Thu-Anh Nguyen Thuy P Nguyen Truong T Nguyen Toan T T Do Ngoc T Pham My Hanh Bui Estimation of the incubation period of COVID-19 in Vietnam. PLoS ONE |
| title | Estimation of the incubation period of COVID-19 in Vietnam. |
| title_full | Estimation of the incubation period of COVID-19 in Vietnam. |
| title_fullStr | Estimation of the incubation period of COVID-19 in Vietnam. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimation of the incubation period of COVID-19 in Vietnam. |
| title_short | Estimation of the incubation period of COVID-19 in Vietnam. |
| title_sort | estimation of the incubation period of covid 19 in vietnam |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0243889 |
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