Forcing of the wintertime atmospheric circulation by the multidecadal fluctuations of the North Atlantic ocean
The North Atlantic sea surface temperature exhibits fluctuations on the multidecadal time scale, a phenomenon known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). This letter demonstrates that the multidecadal fluctuations of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are tied to the AMO, with...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2014-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034018 |
| _version_ | 1797747980574392320 |
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| author | Yannick Peings Gudrun Magnusdottir |
| author_facet | Yannick Peings Gudrun Magnusdottir |
| author_sort | Yannick Peings |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The North Atlantic sea surface temperature exhibits fluctuations on the multidecadal time scale, a phenomenon known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). This letter demonstrates that the multidecadal fluctuations of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are tied to the AMO, with an opposite-signed relationship between the polarities of the AMO and the NAO. Our statistical analyses suggest that the AMO signal precedes the NAO by 10–15 years with an interesting predictability window for decadal forecasting. The AMO footprint is also detected in the multidecadal variability of the intraseasonal weather regimes of the North Atlantic sector. This observational evidence is robust over the entire 20th century and it is supported by numerical experiments with an atmospheric global climate model. The simulations suggest that the AMO-related SST anomalies induce the atmospheric anomalies by shifting the atmospheric baroclinic zone over the North Atlantic basin. As in observations, the positive phase of the AMO results in more frequent negative NAO—and blocking episodes in winter that promote the occurrence of cold extreme temperatures over the eastern United States and Europe. Thus, it is plausible that the AMO plays a role in the recent resurgence of severe winter weather in these regions and that wintertime cold extremes will be promoted as long as the AMO remains positive. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:58:23Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2c8a443c23304acab9ed711768f754eb |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:58:23Z |
| publishDate | 2014-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-2c8a443c23304acab9ed711768f754eb2023-08-09T14:44:37ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262014-01-019303401810.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034018Forcing of the wintertime atmospheric circulation by the multidecadal fluctuations of the North Atlantic oceanYannick Peings0Gudrun Magnusdottir1Department of Earth System Science, University of California , Croull Hall, Irvine, CA 92697-3100, USADepartment of Earth System Science, University of California , Croull Hall, Irvine, CA 92697-3100, USAThe North Atlantic sea surface temperature exhibits fluctuations on the multidecadal time scale, a phenomenon known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). This letter demonstrates that the multidecadal fluctuations of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are tied to the AMO, with an opposite-signed relationship between the polarities of the AMO and the NAO. Our statistical analyses suggest that the AMO signal precedes the NAO by 10–15 years with an interesting predictability window for decadal forecasting. The AMO footprint is also detected in the multidecadal variability of the intraseasonal weather regimes of the North Atlantic sector. This observational evidence is robust over the entire 20th century and it is supported by numerical experiments with an atmospheric global climate model. The simulations suggest that the AMO-related SST anomalies induce the atmospheric anomalies by shifting the atmospheric baroclinic zone over the North Atlantic basin. As in observations, the positive phase of the AMO results in more frequent negative NAO—and blocking episodes in winter that promote the occurrence of cold extreme temperatures over the eastern United States and Europe. Thus, it is plausible that the AMO plays a role in the recent resurgence of severe winter weather in these regions and that wintertime cold extremes will be promoted as long as the AMO remains positive.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034018Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)North Atlantic weather regimescold extreme weatherdecadal predictability |
| spellingShingle | Yannick Peings Gudrun Magnusdottir Forcing of the wintertime atmospheric circulation by the multidecadal fluctuations of the North Atlantic ocean Environmental Research Letters Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) North Atlantic weather regimes cold extreme weather decadal predictability |
| title | Forcing of the wintertime atmospheric circulation by the multidecadal fluctuations of the North Atlantic ocean |
| title_full | Forcing of the wintertime atmospheric circulation by the multidecadal fluctuations of the North Atlantic ocean |
| title_fullStr | Forcing of the wintertime atmospheric circulation by the multidecadal fluctuations of the North Atlantic ocean |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forcing of the wintertime atmospheric circulation by the multidecadal fluctuations of the North Atlantic ocean |
| title_short | Forcing of the wintertime atmospheric circulation by the multidecadal fluctuations of the North Atlantic ocean |
| title_sort | forcing of the wintertime atmospheric circulation by the multidecadal fluctuations of the north atlantic ocean |
| topic | Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) North Atlantic weather regimes cold extreme weather decadal predictability |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034018 |
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