Clinical Utility and Validation of the Krakow DCM Risk Score—A Prognostic Model Dedicated to Dilated Cardiomyopathy
Background: One of the most common causes of heart failure is dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM). In DCM, the mortality risk is high and reaches approximately 20% in 5 years. A patient’s prognosis should be established for appropriate HF management. However, so far, no validated tools have been available...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2022-02-01
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| Series: | Journal of Personalized Medicine |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2075-4426/12/2/236 |
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| author | Ewa Dziewięcka Mateusz Winiarczyk Sylwia Wiśniowska-Śmiałek Aleksandra Karabinowska-Małocha Matylda Gliniak Jan Robak Monika Kaciczak Przemysław Leszek Małgorzata Celińska-Spodar Marcin Dziewięcki Paweł Rubiś |
| author_facet | Ewa Dziewięcka Mateusz Winiarczyk Sylwia Wiśniowska-Śmiałek Aleksandra Karabinowska-Małocha Matylda Gliniak Jan Robak Monika Kaciczak Przemysław Leszek Małgorzata Celińska-Spodar Marcin Dziewięcki Paweł Rubiś |
| author_sort | Ewa Dziewięcka |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background: One of the most common causes of heart failure is dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM). In DCM, the mortality risk is high and reaches approximately 20% in 5 years. A patient’s prognosis should be established for appropriate HF management. However, so far, no validated tools have been available for the DCM population. Methods: The study population consisted of 735 DCM patients: 406 from the derivation cohort (previously described) and 329 from the validation cohort (from 2009 to 2020, with outcome data after a mean of 42 months). For each DCM patient, the individual mortality risk was calculated based on the Krakow DCM Risk Score. Results: During follow-up, 49 (15%) patients of the validation cohort died. They had shown significantly higher calculated 1-to-5-year mortality risks. The Krakow DCM Risk Score yielded good discrimination in terms of overall mortality risk, with an AUC of 0.704–0.765. Based on a 2-year mortality risk, patients were divided into non-high (≤6%) and high (>6%) mortality risk groups. The observed mortality rates were 8.3% (<i>n</i> = 44) vs. 42.6% (<i>n</i> = 75), respectively (HR 3.37; 95%CI 1.88–6.05; <i>p</i> < 0.0001). Conclusions: The Krakow DCM Risk Score was found to have good predictive accuracy. The 2-year mortality risk > 6% has good discrimination for the identification of high-risk patients and can be applied in everyday practice. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T21:37:04Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2ce37f2adc24487bbb1f0b3872ba08cd |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2075-4426 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T21:37:04Z |
| publishDate | 2022-02-01 |
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| series | Journal of Personalized Medicine |
| spelling | doaj.art-2ce37f2adc24487bbb1f0b3872ba08cd2023-11-23T20:40:18ZengMDPI AGJournal of Personalized Medicine2075-44262022-02-0112223610.3390/jpm12020236Clinical Utility and Validation of the Krakow DCM Risk Score—A Prognostic Model Dedicated to Dilated CardiomyopathyEwa Dziewięcka0Mateusz Winiarczyk1Sylwia Wiśniowska-Śmiałek2Aleksandra Karabinowska-Małocha3Matylda Gliniak4Jan Robak5Monika Kaciczak6Przemysław Leszek7Małgorzata Celińska-Spodar8Marcin Dziewięcki9Paweł Rubiś10Department of Cardiac and Vascular Diseases, Jagiellonian University Collegium Medicum, John Paul II Hospital, 31-202 Krakow, PolandStudents’ Scientific Group at Department of Cardiac and Vascular Diseases, Jagiellonian University Collegium Medicum, John Paul II Hospital, 31-008 Krakow, PolandDepartment of Cardiac and Vascular Diseases, Jagiellonian University Collegium Medicum, John Paul II Hospital, 31-202 Krakow, PolandDepartment of Cardiac and Vascular Diseases, Jagiellonian University Collegium Medicum, John Paul II Hospital, 31-202 Krakow, PolandStudents’ Scientific Group at Department of Cardiac and Vascular Diseases, Jagiellonian University Collegium Medicum, John Paul II Hospital, 31-008 Krakow, PolandStudents’ Scientific Group at Department of Cardiac and Vascular Diseases, Jagiellonian University Collegium Medicum, John Paul II Hospital, 31-008 Krakow, PolandStudents’ Scientific Group at Department of Cardiac and Vascular Diseases, Jagiellonian University Collegium Medicum, John Paul II Hospital, 31-008 Krakow, PolandDepartment of Heart Failure and Transplantation, The Cardinal Stefan Wyszyński Institute of Cardiology, 04-628 Warsaw, PolandDepartment of Anaesthesiology and Intensive Care, The National Institute of Cardiology, 04-628 Warsaw, PolandCollege of Economics and Computer Science (WSEI), 31-150 Krakow, PolandDepartment of Cardiac and Vascular Diseases, Jagiellonian University Collegium Medicum, John Paul II Hospital, 31-202 Krakow, PolandBackground: One of the most common causes of heart failure is dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM). In DCM, the mortality risk is high and reaches approximately 20% in 5 years. A patient’s prognosis should be established for appropriate HF management. However, so far, no validated tools have been available for the DCM population. Methods: The study population consisted of 735 DCM patients: 406 from the derivation cohort (previously described) and 329 from the validation cohort (from 2009 to 2020, with outcome data after a mean of 42 months). For each DCM patient, the individual mortality risk was calculated based on the Krakow DCM Risk Score. Results: During follow-up, 49 (15%) patients of the validation cohort died. They had shown significantly higher calculated 1-to-5-year mortality risks. The Krakow DCM Risk Score yielded good discrimination in terms of overall mortality risk, with an AUC of 0.704–0.765. Based on a 2-year mortality risk, patients were divided into non-high (≤6%) and high (>6%) mortality risk groups. The observed mortality rates were 8.3% (<i>n</i> = 44) vs. 42.6% (<i>n</i> = 75), respectively (HR 3.37; 95%CI 1.88–6.05; <i>p</i> < 0.0001). Conclusions: The Krakow DCM Risk Score was found to have good predictive accuracy. The 2-year mortality risk > 6% has good discrimination for the identification of high-risk patients and can be applied in everyday practice.https://www.mdpi.com/2075-4426/12/2/236dilated cardiomyopathynon-ischemic heart failure with reduced ejection fractionprognosisprognostic modelmortality riskKrakow DCM Risk Score |
| spellingShingle | Ewa Dziewięcka Mateusz Winiarczyk Sylwia Wiśniowska-Śmiałek Aleksandra Karabinowska-Małocha Matylda Gliniak Jan Robak Monika Kaciczak Przemysław Leszek Małgorzata Celińska-Spodar Marcin Dziewięcki Paweł Rubiś Clinical Utility and Validation of the Krakow DCM Risk Score—A Prognostic Model Dedicated to Dilated Cardiomyopathy Journal of Personalized Medicine dilated cardiomyopathy non-ischemic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction prognosis prognostic model mortality risk Krakow DCM Risk Score |
| title | Clinical Utility and Validation of the Krakow DCM Risk Score—A Prognostic Model Dedicated to Dilated Cardiomyopathy |
| title_full | Clinical Utility and Validation of the Krakow DCM Risk Score—A Prognostic Model Dedicated to Dilated Cardiomyopathy |
| title_fullStr | Clinical Utility and Validation of the Krakow DCM Risk Score—A Prognostic Model Dedicated to Dilated Cardiomyopathy |
| title_full_unstemmed | Clinical Utility and Validation of the Krakow DCM Risk Score—A Prognostic Model Dedicated to Dilated Cardiomyopathy |
| title_short | Clinical Utility and Validation of the Krakow DCM Risk Score—A Prognostic Model Dedicated to Dilated Cardiomyopathy |
| title_sort | clinical utility and validation of the krakow dcm risk score a prognostic model dedicated to dilated cardiomyopathy |
| topic | dilated cardiomyopathy non-ischemic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction prognosis prognostic model mortality risk Krakow DCM Risk Score |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2075-4426/12/2/236 |
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