Sensitivity of seasonal migration to climatic variability in central India
Extreme climatic events and variability are on the rise around the world, with varying implications for populations across socio-economic conditions. Effective strategies for climate adaptation and development depend on understanding these differential sensitivities to climatic variability. This stu...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac046f |
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| author | Pooja Choksi Deepti Singh Jitendra Singh Pinki Mondal Harini Nagendra Johannes Urpelainen Ruth DeFries |
| author_facet | Pooja Choksi Deepti Singh Jitendra Singh Pinki Mondal Harini Nagendra Johannes Urpelainen Ruth DeFries |
| author_sort | Pooja Choksi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Extreme climatic events and variability are on the rise around the world, with varying implications for populations across socio-economic conditions. Effective strategies for climate adaptation and development depend on understanding these differential sensitivities to climatic variability. This study focuses on a vulnerable population living in forest-fringe villages of central India, where seasonal migration is a common livelihood strategy for poor households to supplement their incomes with remittances. We quantify the relative sensitivity of a decision to migrate for the first time to climate and socio-economic variables and how the sensitivities vary for different segments of the population. We surveyed 5000 households in 500 forest-fringe villages to identify patterns of migration from 2013 to 2017. Using a mixed-effects logistic regression model, we predicted the probability of first-time migration of a household member based on climate variables and household- and district-level characteristics. We find that households in more agricultural and prosperous districts experience lower rates of migration but are more sensitive to climatic variability than households in poorer districts. The probability of first-time migration from a household in the most prosperous district increases by approximately 40% with one standard deviation in mean maximum temperature or rainfall from the 1981–2017 mean. However, the probability of migration does not vary as a function of climatic variability for households in the poorest district. We attribute this difference in sensitivities to the greater dependence on agriculture and irrigation in more prosperous districts and poverty-driven dependence on migration regardless of the climate in poorer districts. Households investing remittances from migration in agricultural intensification could become increasingly sensitive to climate variability, particularly with water shortages and projected increases in climate variability in the region. Promotion of non-agricultural livelihood options and climate-resilient agriculture could the reduce sensitivity of migration to climate variability in the study region. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:53:32Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2cf667e335b94110aa0b299f28f83cbc |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:53:32Z |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-2cf667e335b94110aa0b299f28f83cbc2023-08-09T15:01:32ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262021-01-0116606407410.1088/1748-9326/ac046fSensitivity of seasonal migration to climatic variability in central IndiaPooja Choksi0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2997-5894Deepti Singh1Jitendra Singh2Pinki Mondal3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7323-6335Harini Nagendra4Johannes Urpelainen5Ruth DeFries6https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3332-4621Department of Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology, Columbia University , New York, NY, United States of AmericaSchool of the Environment, Washington State University , Vancouver, WA, United States of AmericaSchool of the Environment, Washington State University , Vancouver, WA, United States of AmericaDepartment of Geography and Spatial Sciences, University of Delaware , Newark, DE, United States of America; Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, University of Delaware , Newark, DE, United States of AmericaAzim Premji University , School of Development, Bengaluru, IndiaSchool of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University , Baltimore, MD, United States of AmericaDepartment of Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology, Columbia University , New York, NY, United States of AmericaExtreme climatic events and variability are on the rise around the world, with varying implications for populations across socio-economic conditions. Effective strategies for climate adaptation and development depend on understanding these differential sensitivities to climatic variability. This study focuses on a vulnerable population living in forest-fringe villages of central India, where seasonal migration is a common livelihood strategy for poor households to supplement their incomes with remittances. We quantify the relative sensitivity of a decision to migrate for the first time to climate and socio-economic variables and how the sensitivities vary for different segments of the population. We surveyed 5000 households in 500 forest-fringe villages to identify patterns of migration from 2013 to 2017. Using a mixed-effects logistic regression model, we predicted the probability of first-time migration of a household member based on climate variables and household- and district-level characteristics. We find that households in more agricultural and prosperous districts experience lower rates of migration but are more sensitive to climatic variability than households in poorer districts. The probability of first-time migration from a household in the most prosperous district increases by approximately 40% with one standard deviation in mean maximum temperature or rainfall from the 1981–2017 mean. However, the probability of migration does not vary as a function of climatic variability for households in the poorest district. We attribute this difference in sensitivities to the greater dependence on agriculture and irrigation in more prosperous districts and poverty-driven dependence on migration regardless of the climate in poorer districts. Households investing remittances from migration in agricultural intensification could become increasingly sensitive to climate variability, particularly with water shortages and projected increases in climate variability in the region. Promotion of non-agricultural livelihood options and climate-resilient agriculture could the reduce sensitivity of migration to climate variability in the study region.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac046fseasonal migrationcentral Indiarural livelihoodsCOVIDclimate change |
| spellingShingle | Pooja Choksi Deepti Singh Jitendra Singh Pinki Mondal Harini Nagendra Johannes Urpelainen Ruth DeFries Sensitivity of seasonal migration to climatic variability in central India Environmental Research Letters seasonal migration central India rural livelihoods COVID climate change |
| title | Sensitivity of seasonal migration to climatic variability in central India |
| title_full | Sensitivity of seasonal migration to climatic variability in central India |
| title_fullStr | Sensitivity of seasonal migration to climatic variability in central India |
| title_full_unstemmed | Sensitivity of seasonal migration to climatic variability in central India |
| title_short | Sensitivity of seasonal migration to climatic variability in central India |
| title_sort | sensitivity of seasonal migration to climatic variability in central india |
| topic | seasonal migration central India rural livelihoods COVID climate change |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac046f |
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