| Summary: | Turkey has a highearthquake risk due to include the active North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) andEast Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ). The earthquakes should be detail investigatedin order to minimize the damage caused by the earthquakes. Differentstatistical approaches are used in these estimation studies. Poissondistribution model is widely used in earthquake studies. The model used for alarge number of statistical studies and it gives reliable results. Moreover,exponential distribution model is used in earthquake prediction studies. Inthis study, EAFZ and its near regions were selected as the study area. ThePoisson and Exponential distribution model was applied by using the earthquakesof Ms≥5.0, which occurred in the selected area between 1900 -2016. Theprobabilities of occurrence of earthquakes with a magnitude of Ms≥5.0 andrecurrence periods are calculated with the obtained model results. According tothe results of Poisson model, the probability of earthquake (Ms≥5.2) within 1year is 33,6% and earthquake recurrence period is estimated as 2 year.According to the exponential distribution model results, the recurrence of earthquakes(Ms≥5.2) is 1 years and probability is74,7%. The two models were compared andthe results were evaluated. When the seismicity of the region was examined, itwas seen that the results were consistent.
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