Climate Adaptation, Drought Susceptibility, and Genomic-Informed Predictions of Future Climate Refugia for the Australian Forest Tree <i>Eucalyptus globulus</i>
Understanding the capacity of forest tree species to adapt to climate change is of increasing importance for managing forest genetic resources. Through a genomics approach, we modelled spatial variation in climate adaptation within the Australian temperate forest tree <i>Eucalyptus globulus<...
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| Format: | Article |
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MDPI AG
2022-04-01
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| Series: | Forests |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/13/4/575 |
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| author | Jakob B. Butler Peter A. Harrison René E. Vaillancourt Dorothy A. Steane Josquin F. G. Tibbits Brad M. Potts |
| author_facet | Jakob B. Butler Peter A. Harrison René E. Vaillancourt Dorothy A. Steane Josquin F. G. Tibbits Brad M. Potts |
| author_sort | Jakob B. Butler |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Understanding the capacity of forest tree species to adapt to climate change is of increasing importance for managing forest genetic resources. Through a genomics approach, we modelled spatial variation in climate adaptation within the Australian temperate forest tree <i>Eucalyptus globulus</i>, identified putative climate drivers of this genomic variation, and predicted locations of future climate refugia and populations at-risk of future maladaptation. Using 812,158 SNPs across 130 individuals from 30 populations (i.e., localities) spanning the species’ natural range, a gradientForest algorithm found 1177 SNPs associated with locality variation in home-site climate (climate-SNPs), putatively linking them to climate adaptation. Very few climate-SNPs were associated with population-level variation in drought susceptibility, signalling the multi-faceted nature and complexity of climate adaptation. Redundancy analysis (RDA) showed 24% of the climate-SNP variation could be explained by annual precipitation, isothermality, and maximum temperature of the warmest month. Spatial predictions of the RDA climate vectors associated with climate-SNPs allowed mapping of genomically informed climate selective surfaces across the species’ range under contemporary and projected future climates. These surfaces suggest over 50% of the current distribution of <i>E. globulus</i> will be outside the modelled adaptive range by 2070 and at risk of climate maladaptation. Such surfaces present a new integrated approach for natural resource managers to capture adaptive genetic variation and plan translocations in the face of climate change. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T10:35:57Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2d1e79dbfcdc41c183c22a2162cfcf55 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1999-4907 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T10:35:57Z |
| publishDate | 2022-04-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Forests |
| spelling | doaj.art-2d1e79dbfcdc41c183c22a2162cfcf552023-12-01T20:54:45ZengMDPI AGForests1999-49072022-04-0113457510.3390/f13040575Climate Adaptation, Drought Susceptibility, and Genomic-Informed Predictions of Future Climate Refugia for the Australian Forest Tree <i>Eucalyptus globulus</i>Jakob B. Butler0Peter A. Harrison1René E. Vaillancourt2Dorothy A. Steane3Josquin F. G. Tibbits4Brad M. Potts5School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Sandy Bay, TAS 7001, AustraliaSchool of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Sandy Bay, TAS 7001, AustraliaSchool of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Sandy Bay, TAS 7001, AustraliaSchool of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Sandy Bay, TAS 7001, AustraliaAgriculture Victoria, Department of Jobs, Precincts and Regions, Bundoora, VIC 3083, AustraliaSchool of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Sandy Bay, TAS 7001, AustraliaUnderstanding the capacity of forest tree species to adapt to climate change is of increasing importance for managing forest genetic resources. Through a genomics approach, we modelled spatial variation in climate adaptation within the Australian temperate forest tree <i>Eucalyptus globulus</i>, identified putative climate drivers of this genomic variation, and predicted locations of future climate refugia and populations at-risk of future maladaptation. Using 812,158 SNPs across 130 individuals from 30 populations (i.e., localities) spanning the species’ natural range, a gradientForest algorithm found 1177 SNPs associated with locality variation in home-site climate (climate-SNPs), putatively linking them to climate adaptation. Very few climate-SNPs were associated with population-level variation in drought susceptibility, signalling the multi-faceted nature and complexity of climate adaptation. Redundancy analysis (RDA) showed 24% of the climate-SNP variation could be explained by annual precipitation, isothermality, and maximum temperature of the warmest month. Spatial predictions of the RDA climate vectors associated with climate-SNPs allowed mapping of genomically informed climate selective surfaces across the species’ range under contemporary and projected future climates. These surfaces suggest over 50% of the current distribution of <i>E. globulus</i> will be outside the modelled adaptive range by 2070 and at risk of climate maladaptation. Such surfaces present a new integrated approach for natural resource managers to capture adaptive genetic variation and plan translocations in the face of climate change.https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/13/4/575<i>Eucalyptus</i>genotype environment associationGEA studygene pool conservationselection surfacesgenomic vulnerability |
| spellingShingle | Jakob B. Butler Peter A. Harrison René E. Vaillancourt Dorothy A. Steane Josquin F. G. Tibbits Brad M. Potts Climate Adaptation, Drought Susceptibility, and Genomic-Informed Predictions of Future Climate Refugia for the Australian Forest Tree <i>Eucalyptus globulus</i> Forests <i>Eucalyptus</i> genotype environment association GEA study gene pool conservation selection surfaces genomic vulnerability |
| title | Climate Adaptation, Drought Susceptibility, and Genomic-Informed Predictions of Future Climate Refugia for the Australian Forest Tree <i>Eucalyptus globulus</i> |
| title_full | Climate Adaptation, Drought Susceptibility, and Genomic-Informed Predictions of Future Climate Refugia for the Australian Forest Tree <i>Eucalyptus globulus</i> |
| title_fullStr | Climate Adaptation, Drought Susceptibility, and Genomic-Informed Predictions of Future Climate Refugia for the Australian Forest Tree <i>Eucalyptus globulus</i> |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate Adaptation, Drought Susceptibility, and Genomic-Informed Predictions of Future Climate Refugia for the Australian Forest Tree <i>Eucalyptus globulus</i> |
| title_short | Climate Adaptation, Drought Susceptibility, and Genomic-Informed Predictions of Future Climate Refugia for the Australian Forest Tree <i>Eucalyptus globulus</i> |
| title_sort | climate adaptation drought susceptibility and genomic informed predictions of future climate refugia for the australian forest tree i eucalyptus globulus i |
| topic | <i>Eucalyptus</i> genotype environment association GEA study gene pool conservation selection surfaces genomic vulnerability |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/13/4/575 |
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