Factors Influencing the Occurrence of Onion Downy Mildew (<i>Peronospora destructor</i>) Epidemics: Trends from 31 Years of Observational Data
Onion downy mildew (ODM) caused by <i>Peronospora destructor</i> has been increasing annually in south-western Québec since the early 2000s, reaching 33% of affected onion fields in 2014. Using observational data collected over a period of 31 consecutive years, this study aimed to invest...
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| Format: | Article |
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MDPI AG
2020-05-01
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| Series: | Agronomy |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/10/5/738 |
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| author | Hervé Van der Heyden Pierre Dutilleul Jean-Benoît Charron Guillaume J. Bilodeau Odile Carisse |
| author_facet | Hervé Van der Heyden Pierre Dutilleul Jean-Benoît Charron Guillaume J. Bilodeau Odile Carisse |
| author_sort | Hervé Van der Heyden |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Onion downy mildew (ODM) caused by <i>Peronospora destructor</i> has been increasing annually in south-western Québec since the early 2000s, reaching 33% of affected onion fields in 2014. Using observational data collected over a period of 31 consecutive years, this study aimed to investigate the variations in ODM incidence and epidemic onset and identify the meteorological variables that influence its polyetic development. A logistic model was fitted to each ODM epidemic to estimate and compare the onset of epidemics on a regional basis. Results of this analysis showed that the first observation date, 10% epidemic onset (<i>b</i><sub>10</sub>) and mid-time (<i>b</i>) were, on average, 30.4, 15.1 and 11.3 days earlier in 2007–2017 than in 1987–1996. Results of a principal component analysis suggested that regional disease incidence was mostly influenced by the precipitation regime, the final regional disease incidence the previous year, and warmer temperature during the harvest period the previous fall. Subsequently, the data were divided in three periods of 10, 10 and 11 years, and a discriminant analysis was performed to classify each year in the correct period. Using a sufficient subset of five discriminating variables (temperature and rainfall at harvest the previous fall, winter coldness, solar radiation, and disease incidence the previous year), it was possible to classify 93.5% of the ODM epidemics in the period where they belong. These results suggest that <i>P. destructor</i> may overwinter under northern latitudes and help to highlight the need for more research on overwintering and for the development of molecular-based tools enabling the monitoring of initial and secondary inoculum. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T19:41:33Z |
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| issn | 2073-4395 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T19:41:33Z |
| publishDate | 2020-05-01 |
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| record_format | Article |
| series | Agronomy |
| spelling | doaj.art-2d60e047f21b4f77ab7fc4de64429cf72023-11-20T01:08:14ZengMDPI AGAgronomy2073-43952020-05-0110573810.3390/agronomy10050738Factors Influencing the Occurrence of Onion Downy Mildew (<i>Peronospora destructor</i>) Epidemics: Trends from 31 Years of Observational DataHervé Van der Heyden0Pierre Dutilleul1Jean-Benoît Charron2Guillaume J. Bilodeau3Odile Carisse4Department of Plant Science, McGill University, Macdonald Campus, 21,111 Lakeshore Road, Ste-Anne-de-Bellevue, QC H9X 3V9, CanadaDepartment of Plant Science, McGill University, Macdonald Campus, 21,111 Lakeshore Road, Ste-Anne-de-Bellevue, QC H9X 3V9, CanadaDepartment of Plant Science, McGill University, Macdonald Campus, 21,111 Lakeshore Road, Ste-Anne-de-Bellevue, QC H9X 3V9, CanadaCanadian Food Inspection Agency, 3851 Fallowfield Road, Ottawa, ON K2H 8P9, CanadaScience and Technology, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu Research and Development Centre, 430 Gouin Boulevard, Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu, QC J3B 3E6, CanadaOnion downy mildew (ODM) caused by <i>Peronospora destructor</i> has been increasing annually in south-western Québec since the early 2000s, reaching 33% of affected onion fields in 2014. Using observational data collected over a period of 31 consecutive years, this study aimed to investigate the variations in ODM incidence and epidemic onset and identify the meteorological variables that influence its polyetic development. A logistic model was fitted to each ODM epidemic to estimate and compare the onset of epidemics on a regional basis. Results of this analysis showed that the first observation date, 10% epidemic onset (<i>b</i><sub>10</sub>) and mid-time (<i>b</i>) were, on average, 30.4, 15.1 and 11.3 days earlier in 2007–2017 than in 1987–1996. Results of a principal component analysis suggested that regional disease incidence was mostly influenced by the precipitation regime, the final regional disease incidence the previous year, and warmer temperature during the harvest period the previous fall. Subsequently, the data were divided in three periods of 10, 10 and 11 years, and a discriminant analysis was performed to classify each year in the correct period. Using a sufficient subset of five discriminating variables (temperature and rainfall at harvest the previous fall, winter coldness, solar radiation, and disease incidence the previous year), it was possible to classify 93.5% of the ODM epidemics in the period where they belong. These results suggest that <i>P. destructor</i> may overwinter under northern latitudes and help to highlight the need for more research on overwintering and for the development of molecular-based tools enabling the monitoring of initial and secondary inoculum.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/10/5/738polyetic developmentlandscape epidemiologyclimate changelong-term disease development |
| spellingShingle | Hervé Van der Heyden Pierre Dutilleul Jean-Benoît Charron Guillaume J. Bilodeau Odile Carisse Factors Influencing the Occurrence of Onion Downy Mildew (<i>Peronospora destructor</i>) Epidemics: Trends from 31 Years of Observational Data Agronomy polyetic development landscape epidemiology climate change long-term disease development |
| title | Factors Influencing the Occurrence of Onion Downy Mildew (<i>Peronospora destructor</i>) Epidemics: Trends from 31 Years of Observational Data |
| title_full | Factors Influencing the Occurrence of Onion Downy Mildew (<i>Peronospora destructor</i>) Epidemics: Trends from 31 Years of Observational Data |
| title_fullStr | Factors Influencing the Occurrence of Onion Downy Mildew (<i>Peronospora destructor</i>) Epidemics: Trends from 31 Years of Observational Data |
| title_full_unstemmed | Factors Influencing the Occurrence of Onion Downy Mildew (<i>Peronospora destructor</i>) Epidemics: Trends from 31 Years of Observational Data |
| title_short | Factors Influencing the Occurrence of Onion Downy Mildew (<i>Peronospora destructor</i>) Epidemics: Trends from 31 Years of Observational Data |
| title_sort | factors influencing the occurrence of onion downy mildew i peronospora destructor i epidemics trends from 31 years of observational data |
| topic | polyetic development landscape epidemiology climate change long-term disease development |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/10/5/738 |
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