A Bayesian analysis of hop price fluctuations
This paper quantifies the correlation between U.S. season average prices for hops with U.S. hop stocks and U.S. hop hectarage. The Hop Equilibrium Ratio, a measure of the supply/demand relationship for U.S. hops, was introduced. Through the Bayesian inference method, the authors used these data to c...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences
2020-12-01
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| Series: | Agricultural Economics (AGRICECON) |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://agricecon.agriculturejournals.cz/artkey/age-202012-0002_a-bayesian-analysis-of-hop-price-fluctuations.php |
| _version_ | 1797899932492890112 |
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| author | Douglas MacKinnon Martin Pavlovič |
| author_facet | Douglas MacKinnon Martin Pavlovič |
| author_sort | Douglas MacKinnon |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper quantifies the correlation between U.S. season average prices for hops with U.S. hop stocks and U.S. hop hectarage. The Hop Equilibrium Ratio, a measure of the supply/demand relationship for U.S. hops, was introduced. Through the Bayesian inference method, the authors used these data to calculate the effect an incremental change to one metric had on the probability of directional changes of future U.S. season average prices (SAP). Between 2010 and 2020, the dominance of proprietary varieties created unprecedented cartel-like powers offering opportunities for supply- and price-management. Research results will enable more accurate forecasting and greater price stability in the hop industry. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T08:37:50Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2d7916c013a847ab84971f33000bec09 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 0139-570X 1805-9295 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T08:37:50Z |
| publishDate | 2020-12-01 |
| publisher | Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Agricultural Economics (AGRICECON) |
| spelling | doaj.art-2d7916c013a847ab84971f33000bec092023-02-23T03:25:26ZengCzech Academy of Agricultural SciencesAgricultural Economics (AGRICECON)0139-570X1805-92952020-12-01661251952610.17221/239/2020-AGRICECONage-202012-0002A Bayesian analysis of hop price fluctuationsDouglas MacKinnon0Martin Pavlovič1Department of Agriculture Economics and Rural Development, Faculty of Agriculture and Life Sciences, University of Maribor, Maribor, SloveniaDepartment of Agriculture Economics and Rural Development, Faculty of Agriculture and Life Sciences, University of Maribor, Maribor, SloveniaThis paper quantifies the correlation between U.S. season average prices for hops with U.S. hop stocks and U.S. hop hectarage. The Hop Equilibrium Ratio, a measure of the supply/demand relationship for U.S. hops, was introduced. Through the Bayesian inference method, the authors used these data to calculate the effect an incremental change to one metric had on the probability of directional changes of future U.S. season average prices (SAP). Between 2010 and 2020, the dominance of proprietary varieties created unprecedented cartel-like powers offering opportunities for supply- and price-management. Research results will enable more accurate forecasting and greater price stability in the hop industry.https://agricecon.agriculturejournals.cz/artkey/age-202012-0002_a-bayesian-analysis-of-hop-price-fluctuations.phpalpha-acidsbayesian theorembrewing industryeconomies of scaleequilibriumhop market |
| spellingShingle | Douglas MacKinnon Martin Pavlovič A Bayesian analysis of hop price fluctuations Agricultural Economics (AGRICECON) alpha-acids bayesian theorem brewing industry economies of scale equilibrium hop market |
| title | A Bayesian analysis of hop price fluctuations |
| title_full | A Bayesian analysis of hop price fluctuations |
| title_fullStr | A Bayesian analysis of hop price fluctuations |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Bayesian analysis of hop price fluctuations |
| title_short | A Bayesian analysis of hop price fluctuations |
| title_sort | bayesian analysis of hop price fluctuations |
| topic | alpha-acids bayesian theorem brewing industry economies of scale equilibrium hop market |
| url | https://agricecon.agriculturejournals.cz/artkey/age-202012-0002_a-bayesian-analysis-of-hop-price-fluctuations.php |
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