Developing a prediction model for disease‐free survival from upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma in the Korean population
Abstract Background In this study, we aimed to propose a validated prediction model for disease‐free survival (DFS) after radical nephroureterectomy (RNU) in a Korean population with upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC). Methods We performed a retrospective review of 1561 cases of UTUC wh...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2019-09-01
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| Series: | Cancer Medicine |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/cam4.2382 |
| _version_ | 1819070311641907200 |
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| author | Sung Han Kim Mi Kyung Song Bumsik Hong Seok Ho Kang Byong Chang Jeong Ja Hyun Ku Ho Kyung Seo Urothelial Cancer‐Advanced Research, Treatment (UCART) study group |
| author_facet | Sung Han Kim Mi Kyung Song Bumsik Hong Seok Ho Kang Byong Chang Jeong Ja Hyun Ku Ho Kyung Seo Urothelial Cancer‐Advanced Research, Treatment (UCART) study group |
| author_sort | Sung Han Kim |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background In this study, we aimed to propose a validated prediction model for disease‐free survival (DFS) after radical nephroureterectomy (RNU) in a Korean population with upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC). Methods We performed a retrospective review of 1561 cases of UTUC who underwent either open RNU (ONU, n = 906) or laparoscopic RNU (LNU, n = 615) from five tertiary Korean institutions between January 2000 and December 2012. Data were used to develop a prediction model using the Cox proportional hazards model. Prognostic factors were selected using the backward variable selection method. The prediction model performance was investigated using Harrell's concordance index (C‐index) and Hosmer‐Lemeshow type 2 statistics. Internal validation was performed using a bootstrap approach, and the National Cancer Center data set (n = 128) was used for external validation. Results A best‐fitting prediction model with seven significant factors was developed. The C‐index and two Hosmer‐Lemeshow type statistics of the prediction model were 0.785 (95% CI, 0.755‐0.815), 4.810 (P = 0.8506), and 5.285 (P = 0.8088). The optimism‐corrected estimate through the internal validation was 0.774 (95% CI, 0.744‐0.804) and the optimism‐corrected calibration curve was close to the ideal line with mean absolute error = 0.012. In external validation, the discrimination was 0.657 (95% CI, 0.560‐0.755) and the two calibration statistics were 0.790 (P = 0.9397) and 3.103 (P = 0.5408), respectively. Conclusion A validated prediction model based on a large Korean RNU cohort was developed with acceptable performance to estimate DFS in patients with UTUC. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-21T17:03:55Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2d882e37d4b04a67a3696113588f9b9e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-7634 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-21T17:03:55Z |
| publishDate | 2019-09-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Cancer Medicine |
| spelling | doaj.art-2d882e37d4b04a67a3696113588f9b9e2022-12-21T18:56:34ZengWileyCancer Medicine2045-76342019-09-018114967497510.1002/cam4.2382Developing a prediction model for disease‐free survival from upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma in the Korean populationSung Han Kim0Mi Kyung Song1Bumsik Hong2Seok Ho Kang3Byong Chang Jeong4Ja Hyun Ku5Ho Kyung Seo6Urothelial Cancer‐Advanced Research, Treatment (UCART) study groupDepartment of Urology, Urologic Cancer Center National Cancer Center Goyang KoreaHealth Insurance Policy Research Institute, National Health Insurance Service Wonju KoreaDepartment of Urology, Asan Medical Center University of Ulsan College of Medicine Seoul Republic of KoreaDepartment of Urology Korea University Anam Hospital, Korea University College of Medicine Seoul Republic of KoreaDepartment of Urology Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine Seoul Republic of KoreaDepartment of Urology Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul National University College of Medicine Seoul Republic of KoreaDepartment of Urology, Urologic Cancer Center National Cancer Center Goyang KoreaAbstract Background In this study, we aimed to propose a validated prediction model for disease‐free survival (DFS) after radical nephroureterectomy (RNU) in a Korean population with upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC). Methods We performed a retrospective review of 1561 cases of UTUC who underwent either open RNU (ONU, n = 906) or laparoscopic RNU (LNU, n = 615) from five tertiary Korean institutions between January 2000 and December 2012. Data were used to develop a prediction model using the Cox proportional hazards model. Prognostic factors were selected using the backward variable selection method. The prediction model performance was investigated using Harrell's concordance index (C‐index) and Hosmer‐Lemeshow type 2 statistics. Internal validation was performed using a bootstrap approach, and the National Cancer Center data set (n = 128) was used for external validation. Results A best‐fitting prediction model with seven significant factors was developed. The C‐index and two Hosmer‐Lemeshow type statistics of the prediction model were 0.785 (95% CI, 0.755‐0.815), 4.810 (P = 0.8506), and 5.285 (P = 0.8088). The optimism‐corrected estimate through the internal validation was 0.774 (95% CI, 0.744‐0.804) and the optimism‐corrected calibration curve was close to the ideal line with mean absolute error = 0.012. In external validation, the discrimination was 0.657 (95% CI, 0.560‐0.755) and the two calibration statistics were 0.790 (P = 0.9397) and 3.103 (P = 0.5408), respectively. Conclusion A validated prediction model based on a large Korean RNU cohort was developed with acceptable performance to estimate DFS in patients with UTUC.https://doi.org/10.1002/cam4.2382nephroureterectomyprediction modelprognosissurvivalurothelial carcinoma |
| spellingShingle | Sung Han Kim Mi Kyung Song Bumsik Hong Seok Ho Kang Byong Chang Jeong Ja Hyun Ku Ho Kyung Seo Urothelial Cancer‐Advanced Research, Treatment (UCART) study group Developing a prediction model for disease‐free survival from upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma in the Korean population Cancer Medicine nephroureterectomy prediction model prognosis survival urothelial carcinoma |
| title | Developing a prediction model for disease‐free survival from upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma in the Korean population |
| title_full | Developing a prediction model for disease‐free survival from upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma in the Korean population |
| title_fullStr | Developing a prediction model for disease‐free survival from upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma in the Korean population |
| title_full_unstemmed | Developing a prediction model for disease‐free survival from upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma in the Korean population |
| title_short | Developing a prediction model for disease‐free survival from upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma in the Korean population |
| title_sort | developing a prediction model for disease free survival from upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma in the korean population |
| topic | nephroureterectomy prediction model prognosis survival urothelial carcinoma |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/cam4.2382 |
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