Ozone predictabilities due to meteorological uncertainties in the Mexico City basin using ensemble forecasts
The purpose of the present study is to investigate the sensitivity of ozone (O<sub>3</sub>) predictions in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) to meteorological initial uncertainties and planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes using state-of-the-art m...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2010-07-01
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| Series: | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| Online Access: | http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/6295/2010/acp-10-6295-2010.pdf |
| _version_ | 1811277729449902080 |
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| author | N. Bei W. Lei M. Zavala L. T. Molina |
| author_facet | N. Bei W. Lei M. Zavala L. T. Molina |
| author_sort | N. Bei |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The purpose of the present study is to investigate the sensitivity of ozone (O<sub>3</sub>) predictions in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) to meteorological initial uncertainties and planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes using state-of-the-art meteorological and photochemical prediction models through ensemble forecasts. The simulated periods (3, 9, 15 and 29 March 2006) represent four typical meteorological episodes ("South-Venting", "O<sub>3</sub>-North", "O<sub>3</sub>-South" and "Convection-North", respectively) in the Mexico City basin during the MCMA-2006/MILAGRO campaign. Our results demonstrate that the uncertainties in meteorological initial conditions have significant impacts on O<sub>3</sub> predictions, including peak time O<sub>3</sub> concentrations ([O<sub>3</sub>]), horizontal and vertical O<sub>3</sub> distributions, and temporal variations. The ensemble spread of the simulated peak [O<sub>3</sub>] averaged over the city's ambient monitoring sites can reach up to 10 ppb. The increasing uncertainties in meteorological fields during peak O<sub>3</sub> period contribute to the largest unpredictability in O<sub>3</sub> simulations, while the impacts of wind speeds and PBL height on [O<sub>3</sub>] are more straightforward and important. The magnitude of the ensemble spreads varies with different PBL schemes and meteorological episodes. The uncertainties in O<sub>3</sub> predictions caused by PBL schemes mainly come from their ability to represent the mixing layer height; but overall, these uncertainties are smaller than those from the uncertainties in meteorological initial conditions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T00:22:28Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2e1cfdbe18b34f42bd82b7e2d3c9fe67 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1680-7316 1680-7324 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T00:22:28Z |
| publishDate | 2010-07-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| spelling | doaj.art-2e1cfdbe18b34f42bd82b7e2d3c9fe672022-12-22T03:10:43ZengCopernicus PublicationsAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics1680-73161680-73242010-07-0110136295630910.5194/acp-10-6295-2010Ozone predictabilities due to meteorological uncertainties in the Mexico City basin using ensemble forecastsN. BeiW. LeiM. ZavalaL. T. MolinaThe purpose of the present study is to investigate the sensitivity of ozone (O<sub>3</sub>) predictions in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) to meteorological initial uncertainties and planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes using state-of-the-art meteorological and photochemical prediction models through ensemble forecasts. The simulated periods (3, 9, 15 and 29 March 2006) represent four typical meteorological episodes ("South-Venting", "O<sub>3</sub>-North", "O<sub>3</sub>-South" and "Convection-North", respectively) in the Mexico City basin during the MCMA-2006/MILAGRO campaign. Our results demonstrate that the uncertainties in meteorological initial conditions have significant impacts on O<sub>3</sub> predictions, including peak time O<sub>3</sub> concentrations ([O<sub>3</sub>]), horizontal and vertical O<sub>3</sub> distributions, and temporal variations. The ensemble spread of the simulated peak [O<sub>3</sub>] averaged over the city's ambient monitoring sites can reach up to 10 ppb. The increasing uncertainties in meteorological fields during peak O<sub>3</sub> period contribute to the largest unpredictability in O<sub>3</sub> simulations, while the impacts of wind speeds and PBL height on [O<sub>3</sub>] are more straightforward and important. The magnitude of the ensemble spreads varies with different PBL schemes and meteorological episodes. The uncertainties in O<sub>3</sub> predictions caused by PBL schemes mainly come from their ability to represent the mixing layer height; but overall, these uncertainties are smaller than those from the uncertainties in meteorological initial conditions.http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/6295/2010/acp-10-6295-2010.pdf |
| spellingShingle | N. Bei W. Lei M. Zavala L. T. Molina Ozone predictabilities due to meteorological uncertainties in the Mexico City basin using ensemble forecasts Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
| title | Ozone predictabilities due to meteorological uncertainties in the Mexico City basin using ensemble forecasts |
| title_full | Ozone predictabilities due to meteorological uncertainties in the Mexico City basin using ensemble forecasts |
| title_fullStr | Ozone predictabilities due to meteorological uncertainties in the Mexico City basin using ensemble forecasts |
| title_full_unstemmed | Ozone predictabilities due to meteorological uncertainties in the Mexico City basin using ensemble forecasts |
| title_short | Ozone predictabilities due to meteorological uncertainties in the Mexico City basin using ensemble forecasts |
| title_sort | ozone predictabilities due to meteorological uncertainties in the mexico city basin using ensemble forecasts |
| url | http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/6295/2010/acp-10-6295-2010.pdf |
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