The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution
Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, po...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IOP Publishing
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4ebe |
| _version_ | 1827869550407843840 |
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| author | Alaaeldin Soultan Diego Pavón-Jordán Ute Bradter Brett K Sandercock Wesley M Hochachka Alison Johnston Jon Brommer Elie Gaget Verena Keller Peter Knaus Karen Aghababyan Qenan Maxhuni Alexandre Vintchevski Károly Nagy Liutauras Raudonikis Dawn Balmer David Noble Domingos Leitão Ingar Jostein Øien Paul Shimmings Elchin Sultanov Brian Caffrey Kerem Boyla Dimitrije Radišić Åke Lindström Metodija Velevski Clara Pladevall Lluís Brotons Šťastný Karel Draženko Z Rajković Tomasz Chodkiewicz Tomasz Wilk Tibor Szép Chris van Turnhout Ruud Foppen Ian Burfield Thomas Vikstrøm Vlatka Dumbović Mazal Mark Eaton Petr Vorisek Aleksi Lehikoinen Sergi Herrando Tatiana Kuzmenko Hans-Günther Bauer Mikhail V Kalyakin Olga V Voltzit Jovica Sjeničić Tomas Pärt |
| author_facet | Alaaeldin Soultan Diego Pavón-Jordán Ute Bradter Brett K Sandercock Wesley M Hochachka Alison Johnston Jon Brommer Elie Gaget Verena Keller Peter Knaus Karen Aghababyan Qenan Maxhuni Alexandre Vintchevski Károly Nagy Liutauras Raudonikis Dawn Balmer David Noble Domingos Leitão Ingar Jostein Øien Paul Shimmings Elchin Sultanov Brian Caffrey Kerem Boyla Dimitrije Radišić Åke Lindström Metodija Velevski Clara Pladevall Lluís Brotons Šťastný Karel Draženko Z Rajković Tomasz Chodkiewicz Tomasz Wilk Tibor Szép Chris van Turnhout Ruud Foppen Ian Burfield Thomas Vikstrøm Vlatka Dumbović Mazal Mark Eaton Petr Vorisek Aleksi Lehikoinen Sergi Herrando Tatiana Kuzmenko Hans-Günther Bauer Mikhail V Kalyakin Olga V Voltzit Jovica Sjeničić Tomas Pärt |
| author_sort | Alaaeldin Soultan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s–2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr ^−1 towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr ^−1 . Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to ‘climate debt’. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds’ resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:45:48Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2e2a963f2e224175ad365d48fae4d9d3 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:45:48Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-2e2a963f2e224175ad365d48fae4d9d32023-08-09T15:25:32ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262022-01-0117202402510.1088/1748-9326/ac4ebeThe future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distributionAlaaeldin Soultan0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3976-2657Diego Pavón-Jordán1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5105-3426Ute Bradter2https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5687-1233Brett K Sandercock3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9240-0268Wesley M Hochachka4Alison Johnston5Jon Brommer6Elie Gaget7https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3462-9686Verena Keller8Peter Knaus9https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8165-2139Karen Aghababyan10Qenan Maxhuni11Alexandre Vintchevski12Károly Nagy13Liutauras Raudonikis14Dawn Balmer15David Noble16Domingos Leitão17Ingar Jostein Øien18https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0986-2726Paul Shimmings19Elchin Sultanov20Brian Caffrey21Kerem Boyla22Dimitrije Radišić23https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2716-9829Åke Lindström24Metodija Velevski25Clara Pladevall26Lluís Brotons27Šťastný Karel28Draženko Z Rajković29https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2626-0076Tomasz Chodkiewicz30Tomasz Wilk31Tibor Szép32Chris van Turnhout33Ruud Foppen34Ian Burfield35Thomas Vikstrøm36Vlatka Dumbović Mazal37Mark Eaton38Petr Vorisek39Aleksi Lehikoinen40Sergi Herrando41Tatiana Kuzmenko42Hans-Günther Bauer43Mikhail V Kalyakin44Olga V Voltzit45Jovica Sjeničić46Tomas Pärt47https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7388-6672Department of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences , Uppsala, SwedenDepartment of Terrestrial Ecology, Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA) , P.O. Box 5685 Torgarden, N-7485 Trondheim, NorwayDepartment of Terrestrial Ecology, Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA) , P.O. Box 5685 Torgarden, N-7485 Trondheim, NorwayDepartment of Terrestrial Ecology, Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA) , P.O. Box 5685 Torgarden, N-7485 Trondheim, NorwayCornell Laboratory of Ornithology, Cornell University , Ithaca, NY 14850, United States of AmericaCornell Laboratory of Ornithology, Cornell University , Ithaca, NY 14850, United States of America; Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge , CB2 3QZ Cambridge, United KingdomDepartment of Biology, University of Turku , 20500 Turku, FinlandDepartment of Biology, University of Turku , 20500 Turku, Finland; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) , Laxenburg, AustriaEuropean Bird Census Council , Nijmegen, The Netherlands; Swiss Ornithological Institute , Sempach, SwitzerlandSwiss Ornithological Institute , Sempach, SwitzerlandBirdLinks Armenia NGO , 87b Dimitrov, apt 14, Yerevan 0020, ArmeniaKosovo Institute for Nature Protection , Str. L. Haradinaj, ex-Rilindja, 10000 Prishtine, KosovoCEO, APB-BirdLife Belarus , Minsk, BelarusMME BirdLife Hungary , PO. Box 16, H-4402 Nyiregyháza, HungaryBirdLife Lithuania , Naugarduko g. 47-3, LT-03208 Vilnius, LietuvaBritish Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford , IP24 2LD Norfolk, United KingdomBritish Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford , IP24 2LD Norfolk, United KingdomSPEA—Portuguese Society for the Study of Birds , Lisboa, PortugalNOF-BirdLife Norway , Sandgata 30 B, NO-7012 Trondheim, NorwayNorsk Ornitologisk Forening/BirdLife Norway , Sandgata 16 B, NO 7012 Trondheim, NorwayAzerbaijan Ornithological Society , Baku, Azerbaijan RepublicBirdWatch Ireland , Wicklow, IrelandeBird National Editor , Istanbul, TurkeyDepartment of Biology and Ecology, Faculty of Sciences, University of Novi Sad , Novi Sad, SerbiaDepartment of Biology, Biodiversity unit, Lund University , S-223 62 Lund, SwedenMacedonian Ecological Society , Skopje, North MacedoniaAndorra Research and Innovation , Sant Julià de Lòria, AndorraForest Science Centre of Catalonia (CTFC) , 25280 Solsona, Spain; CREAF , 08193 Cerdanyola del Vallès, Spain; CSIC , 08193 Cerdanyola del Vallès, SpainFaculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences , Prague, Czech RepublicCenter for Biodiversity Research , 21000 Novi Sad, SerbiaMuseum & Institute of Zoology, Polish Academy of Sciences , Wilcza 64, 00-679 Warszawa, Poland; Polish Society for the Protection of Birds (OTOP) , ul. Odrowaza 24, 05-270 Marki, PolandPolish Society for the Protection of Birds (OTOP) , Kraków, PolandInstitute of Environmental Sciences, University of Nyíregyháza , Nyíregyháza, HungarySovon Dutch Centre for Field Ornithology , Nijmegen, The Netherlands; Department of Animal Ecology & Ecophysiology, Institute for Water and Wetland Research, Radboud University , Nijmegen, The NetherlandsSovon Dutch Centre for Field Ornithology , Nijmegen, The Netherlands; Department of Animal Ecology & Ecophysiology, Institute for Water and Wetland Research, Radboud University , Nijmegen, The NetherlandsBirdLife International , Cambridge, United KingdomDansk Ornitologisk Forening , Copenhagen, Denmark; BirdLife , Copenhagen, DenmarkInstitute for Environment and Nature , Zagreb, CroatiaCentre for Conservation Science, The Royal Society for the Protection of Birds , Newcastle, United Kingdom; European Bird Census Council , Newcastle, United KingdomCzech Society for Ornithology , Prague, Czech RepublicThe Helsinki Lab of Ornithology, Finnish Museum of Natural History , P.O. Box 17, Helsinki, FinlandEuropean Bird Census Council , Nijmegen, The Netherlands; Forest Science Centre of Catalonia (CTFC) , 25280 Solsona, Spain; Catalan Ornithological Institute, Natural History Museum of Barcelona , Pl. Leonardo da Vinci 4-5, 08019 Barcelona, Catalonia, SpainUkrainian Society for the Protection of Birds , Kiev, UkraineMax Planck Institute of Animal Behavior , 78315 Radolfzell, GermanyZoological museum of the Lomonosov Moscow State University , Bolshaya Nikitskaya Str., 2, Moscow 125009, RussiaZoological museum of the Lomonosov Moscow State University , Bolshaya Nikitskaya Str., 2, Moscow 125009, RussiaSociety for Research and Protection of Biodiversity , Banja Luka, Bosnia and HerzegovinaDepartment of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences , Uppsala, SwedenWetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s–2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr ^−1 towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr ^−1 . Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to ‘climate debt’. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds’ resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4ebeEuropean Breeding Bird Atlasbreeding distributionsclimate changeland-use changespecies distribution models |
| spellingShingle | Alaaeldin Soultan Diego Pavón-Jordán Ute Bradter Brett K Sandercock Wesley M Hochachka Alison Johnston Jon Brommer Elie Gaget Verena Keller Peter Knaus Karen Aghababyan Qenan Maxhuni Alexandre Vintchevski Károly Nagy Liutauras Raudonikis Dawn Balmer David Noble Domingos Leitão Ingar Jostein Øien Paul Shimmings Elchin Sultanov Brian Caffrey Kerem Boyla Dimitrije Radišić Åke Lindström Metodija Velevski Clara Pladevall Lluís Brotons Šťastný Karel Draženko Z Rajković Tomasz Chodkiewicz Tomasz Wilk Tibor Szép Chris van Turnhout Ruud Foppen Ian Burfield Thomas Vikstrøm Vlatka Dumbović Mazal Mark Eaton Petr Vorisek Aleksi Lehikoinen Sergi Herrando Tatiana Kuzmenko Hans-Günther Bauer Mikhail V Kalyakin Olga V Voltzit Jovica Sjeničić Tomas Pärt The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution Environmental Research Letters European Breeding Bird Atlas breeding distributions climate change land-use change species distribution models |
| title | The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution |
| title_full | The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution |
| title_fullStr | The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution |
| title_full_unstemmed | The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution |
| title_short | The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution |
| title_sort | future distribution of wetland birds breeding in europe validated against observed changes in distribution |
| topic | European Breeding Bird Atlas breeding distributions climate change land-use change species distribution models |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4ebe |
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