Nine lives of uncertainty in decision-making: strategies for dealing with uncertainty in environmental governance
Governing complex environmental issues involves intensive interaction between public and private actors. These governance processes are fraught with uncertainties about, for example, the current state of environmental affairs, the relevant set of decision alternatives, the reactions of other actors...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Oxford University Press
2018-10-01
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| Series: | Policy & Society |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14494035.2018.1504484 |
| _version_ | 1811230422631186432 |
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| author | Art Dewulf Robbert Biesbroek |
| author_facet | Art Dewulf Robbert Biesbroek |
| author_sort | Art Dewulf |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Governing complex environmental issues involves intensive interaction between public and private actors. These governance processes are fraught with uncertainties about, for example, the current state of environmental affairs, the relevant set of decision alternatives, the reactions of other actors to proposed solutions or the future developments likely to affect an issue. Uncertainty comes in different shapes and sizes and different strands in the literature, which has placed emphasis either on the substance of the issue (e.g. in environmental sciences) or on the decision-making process (e.g. policy sciences). In this paper, we bring together these different strands of literature on uncertainty to present a novel analytical framework. We build on the argument that the nature of uncertainty consists of three types: epistemic uncertainty (involving the lack of knowledge about a particular system), ontological uncertainty (irreducible unpredictability due to inherently complex system behavior) and ambiguity (conflicts between fundamentally different frames about the issue at hand). Scholars have also argued the importance of differentiating between three different objects of uncertainty: substantive uncertainty (uncertainty about the content of decisions or policy issues), strategic uncertainty (uncertainty about the actions of other actors in the strategic game of decision-making) and institutional uncertainty (uncertainty about the rules of the game in decision-making). The framework is useful for analyzing and addressing the nine lives of uncertainty in decision-making. Better understanding of the range of uncertainties is crucial to design more robust policies and governance arrangements and to deal with wicked environmental problems. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-12T10:29:02Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2e2aaef3c7c34eb999b565f01f1f8f26 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1449-4035 1839-3373 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-12T10:29:02Z |
| publishDate | 2018-10-01 |
| publisher | Oxford University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Policy & Society |
| spelling | doaj.art-2e2aaef3c7c34eb999b565f01f1f8f262022-12-22T03:36:53ZengOxford University PressPolicy & Society1449-40351839-33732018-10-0137444145810.1080/14494035.2018.15044841504484Nine lives of uncertainty in decision-making: strategies for dealing with uncertainty in environmental governanceArt Dewulf0Robbert Biesbroek1Wageningen University and ResearchWageningen University and ResearchGoverning complex environmental issues involves intensive interaction between public and private actors. These governance processes are fraught with uncertainties about, for example, the current state of environmental affairs, the relevant set of decision alternatives, the reactions of other actors to proposed solutions or the future developments likely to affect an issue. Uncertainty comes in different shapes and sizes and different strands in the literature, which has placed emphasis either on the substance of the issue (e.g. in environmental sciences) or on the decision-making process (e.g. policy sciences). In this paper, we bring together these different strands of literature on uncertainty to present a novel analytical framework. We build on the argument that the nature of uncertainty consists of three types: epistemic uncertainty (involving the lack of knowledge about a particular system), ontological uncertainty (irreducible unpredictability due to inherently complex system behavior) and ambiguity (conflicts between fundamentally different frames about the issue at hand). Scholars have also argued the importance of differentiating between three different objects of uncertainty: substantive uncertainty (uncertainty about the content of decisions or policy issues), strategic uncertainty (uncertainty about the actions of other actors in the strategic game of decision-making) and institutional uncertainty (uncertainty about the rules of the game in decision-making). The framework is useful for analyzing and addressing the nine lives of uncertainty in decision-making. Better understanding of the range of uncertainties is crucial to design more robust policies and governance arrangements and to deal with wicked environmental problems.http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14494035.2018.1504484Uncertaintyambiguitywicked problemsdecision-makingenvironmental governance |
| spellingShingle | Art Dewulf Robbert Biesbroek Nine lives of uncertainty in decision-making: strategies for dealing with uncertainty in environmental governance Policy & Society Uncertainty ambiguity wicked problems decision-making environmental governance |
| title | Nine lives of uncertainty in decision-making: strategies for dealing with uncertainty in environmental governance |
| title_full | Nine lives of uncertainty in decision-making: strategies for dealing with uncertainty in environmental governance |
| title_fullStr | Nine lives of uncertainty in decision-making: strategies for dealing with uncertainty in environmental governance |
| title_full_unstemmed | Nine lives of uncertainty in decision-making: strategies for dealing with uncertainty in environmental governance |
| title_short | Nine lives of uncertainty in decision-making: strategies for dealing with uncertainty in environmental governance |
| title_sort | nine lives of uncertainty in decision making strategies for dealing with uncertainty in environmental governance |
| topic | Uncertainty ambiguity wicked problems decision-making environmental governance |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14494035.2018.1504484 |
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