The convergence epidemic volatility index (cEVI) as an alternative early warning tool for identifying waves in an epidemic
This manuscript introduces the convergence Epidemic Volatility Index (cEVI), a modification of the recently introduced Epidemic Volatility Index (EVI), as an early warning tool for emerging epidemic waves. cEVI has a similar architectural structure as EVI, but with an optimization process inspired b...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
2023-06-01
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| Series: | Infectious Disease Modelling |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042723000349 |
| _version_ | 1797801692154036224 |
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| author | Konstantinos Pateras Eleftherios Meletis Matthew Denwood Paolo Eusebi Polychronis Kostoulas |
| author_facet | Konstantinos Pateras Eleftherios Meletis Matthew Denwood Paolo Eusebi Polychronis Kostoulas |
| author_sort | Konstantinos Pateras |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This manuscript introduces the convergence Epidemic Volatility Index (cEVI), a modification of the recently introduced Epidemic Volatility Index (EVI), as an early warning tool for emerging epidemic waves. cEVI has a similar architectural structure as EVI, but with an optimization process inspired by a Geweke diagnostic-type test. Our approach triggers an early warning based on a comparison of the most recently available window of data samples and a window based on the previous time frame. Application of cEVI to data from the COVID-19 pandemic data revealed steady performance in predicting early, intermediate epidemic waves and retaining a warning during an epidemic wave. Furthermore, we present two basic combinations of EVI and cEVI: (1) their disjunction cEVI + that respectively identifies waves earlier than the original index, (2) their conjunction cEVI- that results in higher accuracy. Combination of multiple warning systems could potentially create a surveillance umbrella that would result in early implementation of optimal outbreak interventions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T04:54:21Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2e5155058d964cc9a6943cacf68f555b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2468-0427 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T04:54:21Z |
| publishDate | 2023-06-01 |
| publisher | KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Infectious Disease Modelling |
| spelling | doaj.art-2e5155058d964cc9a6943cacf68f555b2023-06-18T05:03:03ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Infectious Disease Modelling2468-04272023-06-0182484490The convergence epidemic volatility index (cEVI) as an alternative early warning tool for identifying waves in an epidemicKonstantinos Pateras0Eleftherios Meletis1Matthew Denwood2Paolo Eusebi3Polychronis Kostoulas4Department of Public and One Health, School of Medicine, University of Thessaly, Karditsa, Terma Mavromichali St., 43131, Greece; Department of Data Science and Biostatistics, University of Utrecht, Postbus 85500, 3508, GA, Utrecht, the Netherlands; Corresponding author. Department of Public and One Health, School of Medicine, University of Thessaly, Karditsa, Terma Mavromichali st., 43131, Greece.Department of Public and One Health, School of Medicine, University of Thessaly, Karditsa, Terma Mavromichali St., 43131, GreeceDepartment of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Grønnegårdsvej 8, 1870, Frederiksberg, Copenhagen, DenmarkDepartment of Medicine and Surgery, University of Perugia, Via Gambuli, 1, 06132, Perugia, ItalyDepartment of Public and One Health, School of Medicine, University of Thessaly, Karditsa, Terma Mavromichali St., 43131, GreeceThis manuscript introduces the convergence Epidemic Volatility Index (cEVI), a modification of the recently introduced Epidemic Volatility Index (EVI), as an early warning tool for emerging epidemic waves. cEVI has a similar architectural structure as EVI, but with an optimization process inspired by a Geweke diagnostic-type test. Our approach triggers an early warning based on a comparison of the most recently available window of data samples and a window based on the previous time frame. Application of cEVI to data from the COVID-19 pandemic data revealed steady performance in predicting early, intermediate epidemic waves and retaining a warning during an epidemic wave. Furthermore, we present two basic combinations of EVI and cEVI: (1) their disjunction cEVI + that respectively identifies waves earlier than the original index, (2) their conjunction cEVI- that results in higher accuracy. Combination of multiple warning systems could potentially create a surveillance umbrella that would result in early implementation of optimal outbreak interventions.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042723000349Epidemic indexSurveillance systemConvergence diagnosticsTime-seriesEarly warning |
| spellingShingle | Konstantinos Pateras Eleftherios Meletis Matthew Denwood Paolo Eusebi Polychronis Kostoulas The convergence epidemic volatility index (cEVI) as an alternative early warning tool for identifying waves in an epidemic Infectious Disease Modelling Epidemic index Surveillance system Convergence diagnostics Time-series Early warning |
| title | The convergence epidemic volatility index (cEVI) as an alternative early warning tool for identifying waves in an epidemic |
| title_full | The convergence epidemic volatility index (cEVI) as an alternative early warning tool for identifying waves in an epidemic |
| title_fullStr | The convergence epidemic volatility index (cEVI) as an alternative early warning tool for identifying waves in an epidemic |
| title_full_unstemmed | The convergence epidemic volatility index (cEVI) as an alternative early warning tool for identifying waves in an epidemic |
| title_short | The convergence epidemic volatility index (cEVI) as an alternative early warning tool for identifying waves in an epidemic |
| title_sort | convergence epidemic volatility index cevi as an alternative early warning tool for identifying waves in an epidemic |
| topic | Epidemic index Surveillance system Convergence diagnostics Time-series Early warning |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042723000349 |
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