Projections of the Population of the Republic of Croatia to the Year 2031: Can Migration Alleviate Future Negative Trends?
The paper presents middle duration projections of Croatia’s population, until the year 2031, determined via the cohort-component method. It outlines eight variants derived from supposed hypotheses in regard to changing birth, migration and death rates. Differences in the variants are exclusively dif...
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Institute for Migration and Ethnic Studies
2004-03-01
|
| Series: | Migracijske i etničke teme |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://hrcak.srce.hr/file/11296 |
| _version_ | 1827332161631420416 |
|---|---|
| author | Snježana Mrđen |
| author_facet | Snježana Mrđen |
| author_sort | Snježana Mrđen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The paper presents middle duration projections of Croatia’s population, until the year 2031, determined via the cohort-component method. It outlines eight variants derived from supposed hypotheses in regard to changing birth, migration and death rates. Differences in the variants are exclusively differences in birth and migration rates, since the assumptions in regard to the death rates are the same in all the variants. The corrected estimate of the population on January 1st 2001, according to the most recent census, served as the base population. The results of the projections indicate that in the next thirty years the overall and the natural population reduction of Croatia will continue, and at the end of the period (2031) the population will be demographically older than at the start (2001). The variants differ only in relation to the intensity (i.e. swiftness) of the aging process, yet the direction remains the same. Thus, in the variant that assumes a positive migration balance, the process of aging would be somewhat slower. The only variant that assumes a constant proportion of young people (on the 2001 level), gradual demographic growth and at the end of the period a larger population than in 2001, is the variant based on a high birth rate and positive migration. The impact of migration is very important for future demographic processes. Namely, in the short run, migration cannot change the direction of demographic processes, but it can lessen already existing negative trends. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T16:54:46Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2e7edbc944bb4dd085805a5efcba49ee |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1333-2546 1848-9184 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T16:54:46Z |
| publishDate | 2004-03-01 |
| publisher | Institute for Migration and Ethnic Studies |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Migracijske i etničke teme |
| spelling | doaj.art-2e7edbc944bb4dd085805a5efcba49ee2024-03-03T04:26:55ZengInstitute for Migration and Ethnic StudiesMigracijske i etničke teme1333-25461848-91842004-03-012016378Projections of the Population of the Republic of Croatia to the Year 2031: Can Migration Alleviate Future Negative Trends?Snježana MrđenThe paper presents middle duration projections of Croatia’s population, until the year 2031, determined via the cohort-component method. It outlines eight variants derived from supposed hypotheses in regard to changing birth, migration and death rates. Differences in the variants are exclusively differences in birth and migration rates, since the assumptions in regard to the death rates are the same in all the variants. The corrected estimate of the population on January 1st 2001, according to the most recent census, served as the base population. The results of the projections indicate that in the next thirty years the overall and the natural population reduction of Croatia will continue, and at the end of the period (2031) the population will be demographically older than at the start (2001). The variants differ only in relation to the intensity (i.e. swiftness) of the aging process, yet the direction remains the same. Thus, in the variant that assumes a positive migration balance, the process of aging would be somewhat slower. The only variant that assumes a constant proportion of young people (on the 2001 level), gradual demographic growth and at the end of the period a larger population than in 2001, is the variant based on a high birth rate and positive migration. The impact of migration is very important for future demographic processes. Namely, in the short run, migration cannot change the direction of demographic processes, but it can lessen already existing negative trends.http://hrcak.srce.hr/file/11296projectionsCroatiafertilitydeath ratemigrationdepopulation |
| spellingShingle | Snježana Mrđen Projections of the Population of the Republic of Croatia to the Year 2031: Can Migration Alleviate Future Negative Trends? Migracijske i etničke teme projections Croatia fertility death rate migration depopulation |
| title | Projections of the Population of the Republic of Croatia to the Year 2031: Can Migration Alleviate Future Negative Trends? |
| title_full | Projections of the Population of the Republic of Croatia to the Year 2031: Can Migration Alleviate Future Negative Trends? |
| title_fullStr | Projections of the Population of the Republic of Croatia to the Year 2031: Can Migration Alleviate Future Negative Trends? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Projections of the Population of the Republic of Croatia to the Year 2031: Can Migration Alleviate Future Negative Trends? |
| title_short | Projections of the Population of the Republic of Croatia to the Year 2031: Can Migration Alleviate Future Negative Trends? |
| title_sort | projections of the population of the republic of croatia to the year 2031 can migration alleviate future negative trends |
| topic | projections Croatia fertility death rate migration depopulation |
| url | http://hrcak.srce.hr/file/11296 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT snjezanamrđen projectionsofthepopulationoftherepublicofcroatiatotheyear2031canmigrationalleviatefuturenegativetrends |