Economic losses from hurricanes cannot be nationally offset under unabated warming
Tropical cyclones range among the costliest of all meteorological events worldwide and planetary scale warming provides more energy and moisture to these storms. Modelling the national and global economic repercussions of 2017’s Hurricane Harvey, we find a qualitative change in the global economic r...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac90d8 |
| _version_ | 1797747296297811968 |
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| author | Robin Middelanis Sven N Willner Christian Otto Anders Levermann |
| author_facet | Robin Middelanis Sven N Willner Christian Otto Anders Levermann |
| author_sort | Robin Middelanis |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Tropical cyclones range among the costliest of all meteorological events worldwide and planetary scale warming provides more energy and moisture to these storms. Modelling the national and global economic repercussions of 2017’s Hurricane Harvey, we find a qualitative change in the global economic response in an increasingly warmer world. While the United States were able to balance regional production failures by the original 2017 hurricane, this option becomes less viable under future warming. In our simulations of over 7000 regional economic sectors with more than 1.8 million supply chain connections, the US are not able to offset the losses by use of national efforts with intensifying hurricanes under unabated warming. At a certain warming level other countries have to step in to supply the necessary goods for production, which gives US economic sectors a competitive disadvantage. In the highly localized mining and quarrying sector—which here also comprises the oil and gas production industry—this disadvantage emerges already with the original Hurricane Harvey and intensifies under warming. Eventually, also other regions reach their limit of what they can offset. While we chose the example of a specific hurricane impacting a specific region, the mechanism is likely applicable to other climate-related events in other regions and other sectors. It is thus likely that the regional economic sectors that are best adapted to climate change gain significant advantage over their competitors under future warming. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:48:42Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2eca512a9abd48d69601ffd91255be5e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:48:42Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-2eca512a9abd48d69601ffd91255be5e2023-08-09T15:17:14ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262022-01-01171010401310.1088/1748-9326/ac90d8Economic losses from hurricanes cannot be nationally offset under unabated warmingRobin Middelanis0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8848-3745Sven N Willner1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6798-6247Christian Otto2https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5500-6774Anders Levermann3https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4432-4704Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research , Telegrafenberg A56, Potsdam 14473, Germany; Department of Computer Science, University of Potsdam , An der Bahn 2, Potsdam 14476, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research , Telegrafenberg A56, Potsdam 14473, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research , Telegrafenberg A56, Potsdam 14473, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research , Telegrafenberg A56, Potsdam 14473, Germany; Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam , Karl-Liebknecht-Straße 24/25, Potsdam 14476, Germany; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University , Palisades, NY, 10964, USATropical cyclones range among the costliest of all meteorological events worldwide and planetary scale warming provides more energy and moisture to these storms. Modelling the national and global economic repercussions of 2017’s Hurricane Harvey, we find a qualitative change in the global economic response in an increasingly warmer world. While the United States were able to balance regional production failures by the original 2017 hurricane, this option becomes less viable under future warming. In our simulations of over 7000 regional economic sectors with more than 1.8 million supply chain connections, the US are not able to offset the losses by use of national efforts with intensifying hurricanes under unabated warming. At a certain warming level other countries have to step in to supply the necessary goods for production, which gives US economic sectors a competitive disadvantage. In the highly localized mining and quarrying sector—which here also comprises the oil and gas production industry—this disadvantage emerges already with the original Hurricane Harvey and intensifies under warming. Eventually, also other regions reach their limit of what they can offset. While we chose the example of a specific hurricane impacting a specific region, the mechanism is likely applicable to other climate-related events in other regions and other sectors. It is thus likely that the regional economic sectors that are best adapted to climate change gain significant advantage over their competitors under future warming.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac90d8natural disasterssupply chainshigher-order impactsHurricane Harveytropical cyclonesextreme weather impacts |
| spellingShingle | Robin Middelanis Sven N Willner Christian Otto Anders Levermann Economic losses from hurricanes cannot be nationally offset under unabated warming Environmental Research Letters natural disasters supply chains higher-order impacts Hurricane Harvey tropical cyclones extreme weather impacts |
| title | Economic losses from hurricanes cannot be nationally offset under unabated warming |
| title_full | Economic losses from hurricanes cannot be nationally offset under unabated warming |
| title_fullStr | Economic losses from hurricanes cannot be nationally offset under unabated warming |
| title_full_unstemmed | Economic losses from hurricanes cannot be nationally offset under unabated warming |
| title_short | Economic losses from hurricanes cannot be nationally offset under unabated warming |
| title_sort | economic losses from hurricanes cannot be nationally offset under unabated warming |
| topic | natural disasters supply chains higher-order impacts Hurricane Harvey tropical cyclones extreme weather impacts |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac90d8 |
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