A DYNAMIC SIR MODEL FOR THE SPREAD OF NOVEL CORONAVIRUS DISEASE 2019 (COVID-19) IN MALAYSIA
The emergence of the first coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case in Malaysia has increased the number of infected cases. Hence, this study proposes a Susceptible-Infected-Recovery (SIR) epidemiological model of the COVID-19 epidemic to portray the outbreak's situation. The SIR model is numer...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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UiTM Press
2023-01-01
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| Series: | Malaysian Journal of Computing |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://mjoc.uitm.edu.my/main/images/journal/vol7-2-2022/4_Mohd_Idris_et_al.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797454267239366656 |
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| author | Nur Aziean Mohd Idris Siti Khadijah Mohtar Zaileha Md Ali Khadijah Abdul Hamid |
| author_facet | Nur Aziean Mohd Idris Siti Khadijah Mohtar Zaileha Md Ali Khadijah Abdul Hamid |
| author_sort | Nur Aziean Mohd Idris |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The emergence of the first coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case in Malaysia has increased the number of infected cases. Hence, this study proposes a Susceptible-Infected-Recovery (SIR) epidemiological model of the COVID-19 epidemic to portray the outbreak's situation. The SIR model is numerically solved using the Fourth-order Runge-Kutta (RK4) method in Matlab®. The Euler method verifies that the graphical results of the SIR model are reliable and valid. In addition, this study analyses the stability of disease-free and endemic equilibriums of the SIR model by the Jacobian matrix. The results show the outbreak for phase 1 occurs in the first 100 days of the phase due to the increased infected cases in early March 2020. As for phase 2, the increases of infected cases in wave 2 make the outbreak occur throughout phase 2, with R0 being higher than phase 1. The infected population for phase 3 shows asymptotic behavior even though the infection rate increases, but the recovery rate is much higher than in phase 2. The local stability of the endemic equilibrium of all phases exists since the value of R0 is more than one. The system is locally asymptotic stable for all three phases since the obtained eigenvalues are real and negative. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T15:34:49Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2ef1cecdc8144abab890f6b4a1e0300d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2600-8238 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T15:34:49Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | UiTM Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Malaysian Journal of Computing |
| spelling | doaj.art-2ef1cecdc8144abab890f6b4a1e0300d2023-11-26T08:22:31ZengUiTM PressMalaysian Journal of Computing2600-82382023-01-01721108111910.24191/mjoc.v7i2.16374A DYNAMIC SIR MODEL FOR THE SPREAD OF NOVEL CORONAVIRUS DISEASE 2019 (COVID-19) IN MALAYSIANur Aziean Mohd Idris0Siti Khadijah Mohtar1Zaileha Md Ali2Khadijah Abdul Hamid3Faculty of Computer and Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Teknologi MARA (UiTM), 40450 Shah Alam, Selangor, MalaysiaFaculty of Computer and Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Teknologi MARA (UiTM), 40450 Shah Alam, Selangor, MalaysiaFaculty of Computer and Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Teknologi MARA (UiTM), 40450 Shah Alam, Selangor, MalaysiaFaculty of Computer and Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Teknologi MARA (UiTM), 40450 Shah Alam, Selangor, MalaysiaThe emergence of the first coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case in Malaysia has increased the number of infected cases. Hence, this study proposes a Susceptible-Infected-Recovery (SIR) epidemiological model of the COVID-19 epidemic to portray the outbreak's situation. The SIR model is numerically solved using the Fourth-order Runge-Kutta (RK4) method in Matlab®. The Euler method verifies that the graphical results of the SIR model are reliable and valid. In addition, this study analyses the stability of disease-free and endemic equilibriums of the SIR model by the Jacobian matrix. The results show the outbreak for phase 1 occurs in the first 100 days of the phase due to the increased infected cases in early March 2020. As for phase 2, the increases of infected cases in wave 2 make the outbreak occur throughout phase 2, with R0 being higher than phase 1. The infected population for phase 3 shows asymptotic behavior even though the infection rate increases, but the recovery rate is much higher than in phase 2. The local stability of the endemic equilibrium of all phases exists since the value of R0 is more than one. The system is locally asymptotic stable for all three phases since the obtained eigenvalues are real and negative.https://mjoc.uitm.edu.my/main/images/journal/vol7-2-2022/4_Mohd_Idris_et_al.pdfcovid-19sir modelcompartment modelepidemic modelinfectious diseasesstability |
| spellingShingle | Nur Aziean Mohd Idris Siti Khadijah Mohtar Zaileha Md Ali Khadijah Abdul Hamid A DYNAMIC SIR MODEL FOR THE SPREAD OF NOVEL CORONAVIRUS DISEASE 2019 (COVID-19) IN MALAYSIA Malaysian Journal of Computing covid-19 sir model compartment model epidemic model infectious diseases stability |
| title | A DYNAMIC SIR MODEL FOR THE SPREAD OF NOVEL CORONAVIRUS DISEASE 2019 (COVID-19) IN MALAYSIA |
| title_full | A DYNAMIC SIR MODEL FOR THE SPREAD OF NOVEL CORONAVIRUS DISEASE 2019 (COVID-19) IN MALAYSIA |
| title_fullStr | A DYNAMIC SIR MODEL FOR THE SPREAD OF NOVEL CORONAVIRUS DISEASE 2019 (COVID-19) IN MALAYSIA |
| title_full_unstemmed | A DYNAMIC SIR MODEL FOR THE SPREAD OF NOVEL CORONAVIRUS DISEASE 2019 (COVID-19) IN MALAYSIA |
| title_short | A DYNAMIC SIR MODEL FOR THE SPREAD OF NOVEL CORONAVIRUS DISEASE 2019 (COVID-19) IN MALAYSIA |
| title_sort | dynamic sir model for the spread of novel coronavirus disease 2019 covid 19 in malaysia |
| topic | covid-19 sir model compartment model epidemic model infectious diseases stability |
| url | https://mjoc.uitm.edu.my/main/images/journal/vol7-2-2022/4_Mohd_Idris_et_al.pdf |
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