Modelling the impact of perfect and imperfect vaccination strategy against SARS CoV-2 by assuming varied vaccine efficacy over India
Background: The outbreak of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has swiftly spread globally and caused public health and socio-economic disruption in many countries. An epidemiological modelling studies in the susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) has played an important role for making effective public h...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2022-05-01
|
| Series: | Clinical Epidemiology and Global Health |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221339842200094X |
| _version_ | 1811332865545207808 |
|---|---|
| author | Nikhila Yaladanda Rajasekhar Mopuri Hari Prasad Vavilala Srinivasa Rao Mutheneni |
| author_facet | Nikhila Yaladanda Rajasekhar Mopuri Hari Prasad Vavilala Srinivasa Rao Mutheneni |
| author_sort | Nikhila Yaladanda |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background: The outbreak of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has swiftly spread globally and caused public health and socio-economic disruption in many countries. An epidemiological modelling studies in the susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) has played an important role for making effective public health policy to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. The aim of the present study is to investigate the optimal vaccination strategy to control the COVID-19 pandemic in India. Methods: We have applied compartment mathematical model susceptible-vaccination-infectious-removed (SVIR) with different range of vaccine efficacy scenarios and predicted the population to be covered for vaccination per day in India as well as state level was performed. Results: The model assumed that a vaccine has 100% efficacy, predicted that >5 million populace to be vaccinated per day to flatten the epidemic curve in India. Similarly, different vaccination mechanisms such as ‘all-or-nothing’ (AoN) and leaky vaccines does not have potential discordance in their effectiveness at higher efficacies (>70%). However, AoN vaccine was found to be marginally effective than leaky at lower efficacies (<70%) when administered at the higher coverage strategies. Further state level analyses were performed and it was found that 0.3, 0.3, 0.2 and 1 million vaccinations required per day in Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Kerala and Maharashtra as it assumes that the vaccine efficacy is 70%. Conclusion: The proposed modelling approach shows a range of assumptions on the efficacy of vaccine which helps the health authorities to prioritize the vaccination strategies to prevent the transmission as well as disease. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-13T16:43:29Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2f05f66a09c54076ad37ed83ee4a93ab |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2213-3984 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-13T16:43:29Z |
| publishDate | 2022-05-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Clinical Epidemiology and Global Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-2f05f66a09c54076ad37ed83ee4a93ab2022-12-22T02:39:09ZengElsevierClinical Epidemiology and Global Health2213-39842022-05-0115101052Modelling the impact of perfect and imperfect vaccination strategy against SARS CoV-2 by assuming varied vaccine efficacy over IndiaNikhila Yaladanda0Rajasekhar Mopuri1Hari Prasad Vavilala2Srinivasa Rao Mutheneni3ENVIS Resource Partner on Climate Change and Public Health, Applied Biology Division, CSIR-Indian Institute of Chemical Technology (CSIR-IICT), Tarnaka, Hyderabad, 500007, Telangana, IndiaENVIS Resource Partner on Climate Change and Public Health, Applied Biology Division, CSIR-Indian Institute of Chemical Technology (CSIR-IICT), Tarnaka, Hyderabad, 500007, Telangana, IndiaENVIS Resource Partner on Climate Change and Public Health, Applied Biology Division, CSIR-Indian Institute of Chemical Technology (CSIR-IICT), Tarnaka, Hyderabad, 500007, Telangana, IndiaCorresponding author.; ENVIS Resource Partner on Climate Change and Public Health, Applied Biology Division, CSIR-Indian Institute of Chemical Technology (CSIR-IICT), Tarnaka, Hyderabad, 500007, Telangana, IndiaBackground: The outbreak of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has swiftly spread globally and caused public health and socio-economic disruption in many countries. An epidemiological modelling studies in the susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) has played an important role for making effective public health policy to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. The aim of the present study is to investigate the optimal vaccination strategy to control the COVID-19 pandemic in India. Methods: We have applied compartment mathematical model susceptible-vaccination-infectious-removed (SVIR) with different range of vaccine efficacy scenarios and predicted the population to be covered for vaccination per day in India as well as state level was performed. Results: The model assumed that a vaccine has 100% efficacy, predicted that >5 million populace to be vaccinated per day to flatten the epidemic curve in India. Similarly, different vaccination mechanisms such as ‘all-or-nothing’ (AoN) and leaky vaccines does not have potential discordance in their effectiveness at higher efficacies (>70%). However, AoN vaccine was found to be marginally effective than leaky at lower efficacies (<70%) when administered at the higher coverage strategies. Further state level analyses were performed and it was found that 0.3, 0.3, 0.2 and 1 million vaccinations required per day in Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Kerala and Maharashtra as it assumes that the vaccine efficacy is 70%. Conclusion: The proposed modelling approach shows a range of assumptions on the efficacy of vaccine which helps the health authorities to prioritize the vaccination strategies to prevent the transmission as well as disease.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221339842200094XSVIR compartmental modelCOVID-19VaccinationEfficacyLeakyAll or nothing |
| spellingShingle | Nikhila Yaladanda Rajasekhar Mopuri Hari Prasad Vavilala Srinivasa Rao Mutheneni Modelling the impact of perfect and imperfect vaccination strategy against SARS CoV-2 by assuming varied vaccine efficacy over India Clinical Epidemiology and Global Health SVIR compartmental model COVID-19 Vaccination Efficacy Leaky All or nothing |
| title | Modelling the impact of perfect and imperfect vaccination strategy against SARS CoV-2 by assuming varied vaccine efficacy over India |
| title_full | Modelling the impact of perfect and imperfect vaccination strategy against SARS CoV-2 by assuming varied vaccine efficacy over India |
| title_fullStr | Modelling the impact of perfect and imperfect vaccination strategy against SARS CoV-2 by assuming varied vaccine efficacy over India |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modelling the impact of perfect and imperfect vaccination strategy against SARS CoV-2 by assuming varied vaccine efficacy over India |
| title_short | Modelling the impact of perfect and imperfect vaccination strategy against SARS CoV-2 by assuming varied vaccine efficacy over India |
| title_sort | modelling the impact of perfect and imperfect vaccination strategy against sars cov 2 by assuming varied vaccine efficacy over india |
| topic | SVIR compartmental model COVID-19 Vaccination Efficacy Leaky All or nothing |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221339842200094X |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT nikhilayaladanda modellingtheimpactofperfectandimperfectvaccinationstrategyagainstsarscov2byassumingvariedvaccineefficacyoverindia AT rajasekharmopuri modellingtheimpactofperfectandimperfectvaccinationstrategyagainstsarscov2byassumingvariedvaccineefficacyoverindia AT hariprasadvavilala modellingtheimpactofperfectandimperfectvaccinationstrategyagainstsarscov2byassumingvariedvaccineefficacyoverindia AT srinivasaraomutheneni modellingtheimpactofperfectandimperfectvaccinationstrategyagainstsarscov2byassumingvariedvaccineefficacyoverindia |