Medium term load forecasting using fuzzy logic approach: A case study of Taroudannt province
Increasing energy efficiency and reliability of power grids is becoming an essential part of grid energy management. Accurately predicting load demand is one of the most important responsibilities of any power utility. This paper focuses on medium term load forecasting for the Moroccan province of T...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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EDP Sciences
2023-01-01
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| Series: | E3S Web of Conferences |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.e3s-conferences.org/articles/e3sconf/pdf/2023/106/e3sconf_icegc2023_00063.pdf |
| _version_ | 1797344938506059776 |
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| author | Stitou Hicham Atillah Mohamed Amine Boudaoud Abdelghani Mounaim Aqil |
| author_facet | Stitou Hicham Atillah Mohamed Amine Boudaoud Abdelghani Mounaim Aqil |
| author_sort | Stitou Hicham |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Increasing energy efficiency and reliability of power grids is becoming an essential part of grid energy management. Accurately predicting load demand is one of the most important responsibilities of any power utility.
This paper focuses on medium term load forecasting for the Moroccan province of Taroudannt using historical monthly load data for five years (2018-2022), temperature and wind speed. This study is the first of its kind in Morocco, particularly within the province of Taroudannt. The main objective is to contribute to the improvement of energy efficiency in the Souss Massa region. To forecast consumed energy, the fuzzy logic approach is used. Three different models are developed, considering three defuzzification methods, namely Centroid, Bisector and smallest of maximum (SOM). The model is tested using data from the year 2022. The simulation results show that the SOM prediction values are less precise, with a mean error of 13 %. In contrast, the other two methods generate the more reasonable and satisfactory values which are closer to the actual load, with the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) less than 8.5 %. The result obtained demonstrate that the proposed model is capable of accurately forecasting future load for Taroudannt province. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T11:10:12Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2f0cb4d5128f4a1181ea32a3addd802e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2267-1242 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T11:10:12Z |
| publishDate | 2023-01-01 |
| publisher | EDP Sciences |
| record_format | Article |
| series | E3S Web of Conferences |
| spelling | doaj.art-2f0cb4d5128f4a1181ea32a3addd802e2024-01-26T10:45:10ZengEDP SciencesE3S Web of Conferences2267-12422023-01-014690006310.1051/e3sconf/202346900063e3sconf_icegc2023_00063Medium term load forecasting using fuzzy logic approach: A case study of Taroudannt provinceStitou Hicham0Atillah Mohamed Amine1Boudaoud Abdelghani2Mounaim Aqil3Engineering and Applied Physics Team (EAPT), Superior School of TechnologyEngineering and Applied Physics Team (EAPT), Superior School of TechnologyEngineering and Applied Physics Team (EAPT), Superior School of TechnologyEngineering and Applied Physics Team (EAPT), Superior School of TechnologyIncreasing energy efficiency and reliability of power grids is becoming an essential part of grid energy management. Accurately predicting load demand is one of the most important responsibilities of any power utility. This paper focuses on medium term load forecasting for the Moroccan province of Taroudannt using historical monthly load data for five years (2018-2022), temperature and wind speed. This study is the first of its kind in Morocco, particularly within the province of Taroudannt. The main objective is to contribute to the improvement of energy efficiency in the Souss Massa region. To forecast consumed energy, the fuzzy logic approach is used. Three different models are developed, considering three defuzzification methods, namely Centroid, Bisector and smallest of maximum (SOM). The model is tested using data from the year 2022. The simulation results show that the SOM prediction values are less precise, with a mean error of 13 %. In contrast, the other two methods generate the more reasonable and satisfactory values which are closer to the actual load, with the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) less than 8.5 %. The result obtained demonstrate that the proposed model is capable of accurately forecasting future load for Taroudannt province.https://www.e3s-conferences.org/articles/e3sconf/pdf/2023/106/e3sconf_icegc2023_00063.pdfload forecastingfuzzy logicmedium termpower systemsenergy consumptionenergy efficiency |
| spellingShingle | Stitou Hicham Atillah Mohamed Amine Boudaoud Abdelghani Mounaim Aqil Medium term load forecasting using fuzzy logic approach: A case study of Taroudannt province E3S Web of Conferences load forecasting fuzzy logic medium term power systems energy consumption energy efficiency |
| title | Medium term load forecasting using fuzzy logic approach: A case study of Taroudannt province |
| title_full | Medium term load forecasting using fuzzy logic approach: A case study of Taroudannt province |
| title_fullStr | Medium term load forecasting using fuzzy logic approach: A case study of Taroudannt province |
| title_full_unstemmed | Medium term load forecasting using fuzzy logic approach: A case study of Taroudannt province |
| title_short | Medium term load forecasting using fuzzy logic approach: A case study of Taroudannt province |
| title_sort | medium term load forecasting using fuzzy logic approach a case study of taroudannt province |
| topic | load forecasting fuzzy logic medium term power systems energy consumption energy efficiency |
| url | https://www.e3s-conferences.org/articles/e3sconf/pdf/2023/106/e3sconf_icegc2023_00063.pdf |
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