The Relative Roles of Ambient Temperature and Mobility Patterns in Shaping the Transmission Heterogeneity of SARS-CoV-2 in Japan
We assess the effects of ambient temperature and mobility patterns on the transmissibility of COVID-19 during the epidemiological years of the pandemic in Japan. The prefecture-specific daily time-series of confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, meteorological variables, levels of reta...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2022-10-01
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| Series: | Viruses |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/14/10/2232 |
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| author | Keita Wagatsuma Iain S. Koolhof Reiko Saito |
| author_facet | Keita Wagatsuma Iain S. Koolhof Reiko Saito |
| author_sort | Keita Wagatsuma |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We assess the effects of ambient temperature and mobility patterns on the transmissibility of COVID-19 during the epidemiological years of the pandemic in Japan. The prefecture-specific daily time-series of confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, meteorological variables, levels of retail and recreation mobility (e.g., activities, going to restaurants, cafes, and shopping centers), and the number of vaccinations were collected for six prefectures in Japan from 1 May 2020 to 31 March 2022. We combined standard time-series generalized additive models (GAMs) with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) to determine the exposure–lag–response association between the time-varying effective reproductive number (<i>R<sub>t</sub></i>), ambient temperature, and retail and recreation mobility, while controlling for a wide range of potential confounders. Utilizing a statistical model, the first distribution of the mean ambient temperature (i.e., −4.9 °C) was associated with an 11.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.9–17.7%) increase in <i>R<sub>t</sub></i> compared to the optimum ambient temperature (i.e., 18.5 °C). A retail and recreation mobility of 10.0% (99th percentile) was associated with a 19.6% (95% CI: 12.6–27.1%) increase in <i>R<sub>t</sub></i> over the optimal level (i.e., −16.0%). Our findings provide a better understanding of how ambient temperature and mobility patterns shape severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. These findings provide valuable epidemiological insights for public health policies in controlling disease transmission. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T19:22:43Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2f13f3659c5d4843932adc3bf07a645c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1999-4915 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T19:22:43Z |
| publishDate | 2022-10-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Viruses |
| spelling | doaj.art-2f13f3659c5d4843932adc3bf07a645c2023-11-24T03:09:50ZengMDPI AGViruses1999-49152022-10-011410223210.3390/v14102232The Relative Roles of Ambient Temperature and Mobility Patterns in Shaping the Transmission Heterogeneity of SARS-CoV-2 in JapanKeita Wagatsuma0Iain S. Koolhof1Reiko Saito2Division of International Health (Public Health), Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Niigata University, Niigata 951-8510, JapanDivision of International Health (Public Health), Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Niigata University, Niigata 951-8510, JapanDivision of International Health (Public Health), Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Niigata University, Niigata 951-8510, JapanWe assess the effects of ambient temperature and mobility patterns on the transmissibility of COVID-19 during the epidemiological years of the pandemic in Japan. The prefecture-specific daily time-series of confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, meteorological variables, levels of retail and recreation mobility (e.g., activities, going to restaurants, cafes, and shopping centers), and the number of vaccinations were collected for six prefectures in Japan from 1 May 2020 to 31 March 2022. We combined standard time-series generalized additive models (GAMs) with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) to determine the exposure–lag–response association between the time-varying effective reproductive number (<i>R<sub>t</sub></i>), ambient temperature, and retail and recreation mobility, while controlling for a wide range of potential confounders. Utilizing a statistical model, the first distribution of the mean ambient temperature (i.e., −4.9 °C) was associated with an 11.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.9–17.7%) increase in <i>R<sub>t</sub></i> compared to the optimum ambient temperature (i.e., 18.5 °C). A retail and recreation mobility of 10.0% (99th percentile) was associated with a 19.6% (95% CI: 12.6–27.1%) increase in <i>R<sub>t</sub></i> over the optimal level (i.e., −16.0%). Our findings provide a better understanding of how ambient temperature and mobility patterns shape severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. These findings provide valuable epidemiological insights for public health policies in controlling disease transmission.https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/14/10/2232SARS-CoV-2transmissibilityambient temperaturemobility patternsepidemics |
| spellingShingle | Keita Wagatsuma Iain S. Koolhof Reiko Saito The Relative Roles of Ambient Temperature and Mobility Patterns in Shaping the Transmission Heterogeneity of SARS-CoV-2 in Japan Viruses SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility ambient temperature mobility patterns epidemics |
| title | The Relative Roles of Ambient Temperature and Mobility Patterns in Shaping the Transmission Heterogeneity of SARS-CoV-2 in Japan |
| title_full | The Relative Roles of Ambient Temperature and Mobility Patterns in Shaping the Transmission Heterogeneity of SARS-CoV-2 in Japan |
| title_fullStr | The Relative Roles of Ambient Temperature and Mobility Patterns in Shaping the Transmission Heterogeneity of SARS-CoV-2 in Japan |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Relative Roles of Ambient Temperature and Mobility Patterns in Shaping the Transmission Heterogeneity of SARS-CoV-2 in Japan |
| title_short | The Relative Roles of Ambient Temperature and Mobility Patterns in Shaping the Transmission Heterogeneity of SARS-CoV-2 in Japan |
| title_sort | relative roles of ambient temperature and mobility patterns in shaping the transmission heterogeneity of sars cov 2 in japan |
| topic | SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility ambient temperature mobility patterns epidemics |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/14/10/2232 |
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