Seasonal prediction of Euro-Atlantic teleconnections from multiple systems
Seasonal mean atmospheric circulation in Europe can vary substantially from year to year. This diversity of conditions impacts many socioeconomic sectors. Teleconnection indices can be used to characterize this seasonal variability, while seasonal forecasts of those indices offer the opportunity to...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2020-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab87d2 |
| _version_ | 1797747508389085184 |
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| author | Llorenç Lledó Irene Cionni Verónica Torralba Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière Margarida Samsó |
| author_facet | Llorenç Lledó Irene Cionni Verónica Torralba Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière Margarida Samsó |
| author_sort | Llorenç Lledó |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Seasonal mean atmospheric circulation in Europe can vary substantially from year to year. This diversity of conditions impacts many socioeconomic sectors. Teleconnection indices can be used to characterize this seasonal variability, while seasonal forecasts of those indices offer the opportunity to take adaptation actions a few months in advance. For instance, the North Atlantic Oscillation has proven useful as a proxy for atmospheric effects in several sectors, and dynamical forecasts of its evolution in winter have been shown skillful. However the NAO only characterizes part of this seasonal circulation anomalies, and other teleconnections such as the East Atlantic, the East Atlantic Western Russia or the Scandinavian Pattern also play an important role in shaping atmospheric conditions in the continent throughout the year. This paper explores the quality of seasonal forecasts of these four teleconnection indices for the four seasons of the year, derived from five different seasonal prediction systems. We find that several teleconnection indices can be skillfully predicted in advance in winter, spring and summer. We also show that there is no single prediction system that performs better than the others for all seasons and teleconnections, and that a multi-system approach produces results that are as good as the best of the systems. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:51:35Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2f299b15be28449a80d39516a9dc2441 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:51:35Z |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-2f299b15be28449a80d39516a9dc24412023-08-09T15:06:43ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262020-01-0115707400910.1088/1748-9326/ab87d2Seasonal prediction of Euro-Atlantic teleconnections from multiple systemsLlorenç Lledó0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8628-6876Irene Cionni1Verónica Torralba2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8941-1548Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière3Margarida Samsó4Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC) , Barcelona, SpainAgenzia nazionale per le nuove tecnologie, l’energia e lo sviluppo economico sostenibile (ENEA) , Roma, ItalyBarcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC) , Barcelona, SpainBarcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC) , Barcelona, SpainBarcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC) , Barcelona, SpainSeasonal mean atmospheric circulation in Europe can vary substantially from year to year. This diversity of conditions impacts many socioeconomic sectors. Teleconnection indices can be used to characterize this seasonal variability, while seasonal forecasts of those indices offer the opportunity to take adaptation actions a few months in advance. For instance, the North Atlantic Oscillation has proven useful as a proxy for atmospheric effects in several sectors, and dynamical forecasts of its evolution in winter have been shown skillful. However the NAO only characterizes part of this seasonal circulation anomalies, and other teleconnections such as the East Atlantic, the East Atlantic Western Russia or the Scandinavian Pattern also play an important role in shaping atmospheric conditions in the continent throughout the year. This paper explores the quality of seasonal forecasts of these four teleconnection indices for the four seasons of the year, derived from five different seasonal prediction systems. We find that several teleconnection indices can be skillfully predicted in advance in winter, spring and summer. We also show that there is no single prediction system that performs better than the others for all seasons and teleconnections, and that a multi-system approach produces results that are as good as the best of the systems.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab87d2Euro-Atlantic Teleconnectionsteleconnectionsseasonal predictionmulti-system predictionsclimate variability |
| spellingShingle | Llorenç Lledó Irene Cionni Verónica Torralba Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière Margarida Samsó Seasonal prediction of Euro-Atlantic teleconnections from multiple systems Environmental Research Letters Euro-Atlantic Teleconnections teleconnections seasonal prediction multi-system predictions climate variability |
| title | Seasonal prediction of Euro-Atlantic teleconnections from multiple systems |
| title_full | Seasonal prediction of Euro-Atlantic teleconnections from multiple systems |
| title_fullStr | Seasonal prediction of Euro-Atlantic teleconnections from multiple systems |
| title_full_unstemmed | Seasonal prediction of Euro-Atlantic teleconnections from multiple systems |
| title_short | Seasonal prediction of Euro-Atlantic teleconnections from multiple systems |
| title_sort | seasonal prediction of euro atlantic teleconnections from multiple systems |
| topic | Euro-Atlantic Teleconnections teleconnections seasonal prediction multi-system predictions climate variability |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab87d2 |
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