Quantifying the under-reporting of uncorrelated longitudal data: the genital warts example
Abstract Background Genital warts are a common and highly contagious sexually transmitted disease. They have a large economic burden and affect several aspects of quality of life. Incidence data underestimate the real occurrence of genital warts because this infection is often under-reported, mostly...
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| Format: | Article |
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BMC
2021-01-01
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| Series: | BMC Medical Research Methodology |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12874-020-01188-4 |
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| author | David Moriña Amanda Fernández-Fontelo Alejandra Cabaña Pedro Puig Laura Monfil Maria Brotons Mireia Diaz |
| author_facet | David Moriña Amanda Fernández-Fontelo Alejandra Cabaña Pedro Puig Laura Monfil Maria Brotons Mireia Diaz |
| author_sort | David Moriña |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Genital warts are a common and highly contagious sexually transmitted disease. They have a large economic burden and affect several aspects of quality of life. Incidence data underestimate the real occurrence of genital warts because this infection is often under-reported, mostly due to their specific characteristics such as the asymptomatic course. Methods Genital warts cases for the analysis were obtained from the Catalan public health system database (SIDIAP) for the period 2009-2016. People under 15 and over 94 years old were excluded from the analysis as the incidence of genital warts in this population is negligible. This work introduces a time series model based on a mixture of two distributions, capable of detecting the presence of under-reporting in the data. In order to identify potential differences in the magnitude of the under-reporting issue depending on sex and age, these covariates were included in the model. Results This work shows that only about 80% in average of genital warts incidence in Catalunya in the period 2009-2016 was registered, although the frequency of under-reporting has been decreasing over the study period. It can also be seen that this issue has a deeper impact on women over 30 years old. Conclusions Although this study shows that the quality of the registered data has improved over the considered period of time, the Catalan public health system is underestimating genital warts real burden in almost 10,000 cases, around 23% of the registered cases. The total annual cost is underestimated in about 10 million Euros respect the 54 million Euros annually devoted to genital warts in Catalunya, representing 0.4% of the total budget. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-16T16:11:57Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2f389d2201e94307b76294f69b896b75 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1471-2288 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-16T16:11:57Z |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Medical Research Methodology |
| spelling | doaj.art-2f389d2201e94307b76294f69b896b752022-12-21T22:25:12ZengBMCBMC Medical Research Methodology1471-22882021-01-012111710.1186/s12874-020-01188-4Quantifying the under-reporting of uncorrelated longitudal data: the genital warts exampleDavid Moriña0Amanda Fernández-Fontelo1Alejandra Cabaña2Pedro Puig3Laura Monfil4Maria Brotons5Mireia Diaz6Department of Econometrics, Statistics and Applied Economics, Riskcenter-IREA, Universitat de Barcelona (UB)Chair of Statistics, School of Business and Economics, Humboldt-Universität zu BerlinBarcelona Graduate School of Mathematics (BGSMath), Departament de Matemàtiques, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), Edifici C, Campus de BellaterraBarcelona Graduate School of Mathematics (BGSMath), Departament de Matemàtiques, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), Edifici C, Campus de BellaterraUnit of Infections and Cancer - Information and Interventions (UNIC - I&I), Cancer Epidemiology Research Program (CERP), Catalan Institute of Oncology (ICO)-IDIBELLUnit of Infections and Cancer - Information and Interventions (UNIC - I&I), Cancer Epidemiology Research Program (CERP), Catalan Institute of Oncology (ICO)-IDIBELLUnit of Infections and Cancer - Information and Interventions (UNIC - I&I), Cancer Epidemiology Research Program (CERP), Catalan Institute of Oncology (ICO)-IDIBELLAbstract Background Genital warts are a common and highly contagious sexually transmitted disease. They have a large economic burden and affect several aspects of quality of life. Incidence data underestimate the real occurrence of genital warts because this infection is often under-reported, mostly due to their specific characteristics such as the asymptomatic course. Methods Genital warts cases for the analysis were obtained from the Catalan public health system database (SIDIAP) for the period 2009-2016. People under 15 and over 94 years old were excluded from the analysis as the incidence of genital warts in this population is negligible. This work introduces a time series model based on a mixture of two distributions, capable of detecting the presence of under-reporting in the data. In order to identify potential differences in the magnitude of the under-reporting issue depending on sex and age, these covariates were included in the model. Results This work shows that only about 80% in average of genital warts incidence in Catalunya in the period 2009-2016 was registered, although the frequency of under-reporting has been decreasing over the study period. It can also be seen that this issue has a deeper impact on women over 30 years old. Conclusions Although this study shows that the quality of the registered data has improved over the considered period of time, the Catalan public health system is underestimating genital warts real burden in almost 10,000 cases, around 23% of the registered cases. The total annual cost is underestimated in about 10 million Euros respect the 54 million Euros annually devoted to genital warts in Catalunya, representing 0.4% of the total budget.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12874-020-01188-4Genital wartsEstimationHPVUnder-reportingTime series |
| spellingShingle | David Moriña Amanda Fernández-Fontelo Alejandra Cabaña Pedro Puig Laura Monfil Maria Brotons Mireia Diaz Quantifying the under-reporting of uncorrelated longitudal data: the genital warts example BMC Medical Research Methodology Genital warts Estimation HPV Under-reporting Time series |
| title | Quantifying the under-reporting of uncorrelated longitudal data: the genital warts example |
| title_full | Quantifying the under-reporting of uncorrelated longitudal data: the genital warts example |
| title_fullStr | Quantifying the under-reporting of uncorrelated longitudal data: the genital warts example |
| title_full_unstemmed | Quantifying the under-reporting of uncorrelated longitudal data: the genital warts example |
| title_short | Quantifying the under-reporting of uncorrelated longitudal data: the genital warts example |
| title_sort | quantifying the under reporting of uncorrelated longitudal data the genital warts example |
| topic | Genital warts Estimation HPV Under-reporting Time series |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12874-020-01188-4 |
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