The Impact of Testing Capacity and Compliance With Isolation on COVID-19: A Mathematical Modeling Study
Introduction: Diagnostic tests can play an important role in reducing the transmission of infectious respiratory diseases, particularly during a pandemic. The potential benefit of diagnostic testing depends on at least 4 factors: (1) how soon testing becomes available after the beginning of the pand...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2022-09-01
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| Series: | AJPM Focus |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2773065422000050 |
| _version_ | 1811192173640548352 |
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| author | Zhuoting Yu, BS Pinar Keskinocak, PhD Lauren N. Steimle, PhD Inci Yildirim, MD, PhD |
| author_facet | Zhuoting Yu, BS Pinar Keskinocak, PhD Lauren N. Steimle, PhD Inci Yildirim, MD, PhD |
| author_sort | Zhuoting Yu, BS |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Introduction: Diagnostic tests can play an important role in reducing the transmission of infectious respiratory diseases, particularly during a pandemic. The potential benefit of diagnostic testing depends on at least 4 factors: (1) how soon testing becomes available after the beginning of the pandemic and (2) at what capacity; (3) compliance with isolation after testing positive; and (4) compliance with isolation when experiencing symptoms, even in the absence of testing. Methods: To understand the interplay between these factors and provide further insight into policy decisions for future pandemics, we developed a compartmental model and simulated numerous scenarios using the dynamics of COVID-19 as a case study. Results: Our results quantified the significant benefits of early start of testing and high compliance with isolation. Early start of testing, even with low testing capacity over time, could significantly slow down the disease spread if compliance with isolation is high. By contrast, when the start of testing was delayed, the benefit of testing on reducing infection spread was limited, even when testing capacity was high; the additional testing capacity required increased superlinearly for each day of delay to achieve a similar infection attack rate as in starting testing earlier. Conclusions: Our study highlighted the importance of the early start of testing and public health messaging to promote isolation compliance when needed for an ongoing effective response to COVID-19 and future pandemics. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T23:47:23Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2f45065c28e4405fa99ad5fc0ec2700d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2773-0654 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T23:47:23Z |
| publishDate | 2022-09-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | AJPM Focus |
| spelling | doaj.art-2f45065c28e4405fa99ad5fc0ec2700d2022-12-22T03:56:35ZengElsevierAJPM Focus2773-06542022-09-0111100006The Impact of Testing Capacity and Compliance With Isolation on COVID-19: A Mathematical Modeling StudyZhuoting Yu, BS0Pinar Keskinocak, PhD1Lauren N. Steimle, PhD2Inci Yildirim, MD, PhD3H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial & Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GeorgiaH. Milton Stewart School of Industrial & Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia; Address correspondence to: Pinar Keskinocak, Ph.D., H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Groseclose 422, 755 Ferst Drive Northwest, Atlanta GA 30332.H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial & Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GeorgiaDepartment of Pediatrics, Yale School of Medicine, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut; Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut; Yale Institute of Global Health, Yale University, New Haven, ConnecticutIntroduction: Diagnostic tests can play an important role in reducing the transmission of infectious respiratory diseases, particularly during a pandemic. The potential benefit of diagnostic testing depends on at least 4 factors: (1) how soon testing becomes available after the beginning of the pandemic and (2) at what capacity; (3) compliance with isolation after testing positive; and (4) compliance with isolation when experiencing symptoms, even in the absence of testing. Methods: To understand the interplay between these factors and provide further insight into policy decisions for future pandemics, we developed a compartmental model and simulated numerous scenarios using the dynamics of COVID-19 as a case study. Results: Our results quantified the significant benefits of early start of testing and high compliance with isolation. Early start of testing, even with low testing capacity over time, could significantly slow down the disease spread if compliance with isolation is high. By contrast, when the start of testing was delayed, the benefit of testing on reducing infection spread was limited, even when testing capacity was high; the additional testing capacity required increased superlinearly for each day of delay to achieve a similar infection attack rate as in starting testing earlier. Conclusions: Our study highlighted the importance of the early start of testing and public health messaging to promote isolation compliance when needed for an ongoing effective response to COVID-19 and future pandemics.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2773065422000050Infectious diseasediagnostic testingcompliance with self-isolationsimulationmathematical modeling |
| spellingShingle | Zhuoting Yu, BS Pinar Keskinocak, PhD Lauren N. Steimle, PhD Inci Yildirim, MD, PhD The Impact of Testing Capacity and Compliance With Isolation on COVID-19: A Mathematical Modeling Study AJPM Focus Infectious disease diagnostic testing compliance with self-isolation simulation mathematical modeling |
| title | The Impact of Testing Capacity and Compliance With Isolation on COVID-19: A Mathematical Modeling Study |
| title_full | The Impact of Testing Capacity and Compliance With Isolation on COVID-19: A Mathematical Modeling Study |
| title_fullStr | The Impact of Testing Capacity and Compliance With Isolation on COVID-19: A Mathematical Modeling Study |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Impact of Testing Capacity and Compliance With Isolation on COVID-19: A Mathematical Modeling Study |
| title_short | The Impact of Testing Capacity and Compliance With Isolation on COVID-19: A Mathematical Modeling Study |
| title_sort | impact of testing capacity and compliance with isolation on covid 19 a mathematical modeling study |
| topic | Infectious disease diagnostic testing compliance with self-isolation simulation mathematical modeling |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2773065422000050 |
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