Application of the exponential grey model on the maintenance cost prediction for a large scale hospital / Eksponentinio pilkojo modelio taikymas prognozuojant didelės ligoninės eksploatacines sąnaudas
Realizing the maintenance cost distribution and predicting the future tendency are important for facility managers to efficiently arrange the limited budget. This paper collects 16,228 maintenance records of a representative hospital in Taiwan and further analyzes the cost distribution. Besides, by...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Vilnius Gediminas Technical University
2012-01-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Strategic Property Management |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://journals.vgtu.lt/index.php/IJSPM/article/view/5498 |
| _version_ | 1818385680377577472 |
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| author | Tzu-Ping Lo Sy-Jye Guo Chin-Te Chen |
| author_facet | Tzu-Ping Lo Sy-Jye Guo Chin-Te Chen |
| author_sort | Tzu-Ping Lo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Realizing the maintenance cost distribution and predicting the future tendency are important for facility managers to efficiently arrange the limited budget. This paper collects 16,228 maintenance records of a representative hospital in Taiwan and further analyzes the cost distribution. Besides, by calculating the maintenance cost of per square meter of floor area per year (dollar/m2/year) and comparing with the previous studies, this paper also points out the relationship between maintenance cost and the operation ages. moreover, this paper establishes a hybrid grey model termed as EGM(1,1), which adopting exponential series to identify the residual error series resulted from grey model, to predict the maintenance cost. The repair cost of hospital building from 1998 to 2006 is adopted to demonstrate the applicability and practicability of EGM(1,1). Results show that the proposed model can predict the tendency precisely.
Santrauka
Norint efektyviai išdėstyti ribotą biudžetą, pastatų ūkio valdytojai turi suprasti eksploatacijos sąnaudų pasiskirstymą ir sudaryti ateities tendencijų prognozes. Šiame darbe surinkti 16 228 įrašai apie reprezentacinės Taivano ligoninės eksploataciją ir jais remiantis analizuojamas sąnaudų pasiskirstymas. Apskaičiavus metines eksploatacijos sąnaudas vienam kvadratiniam metrui (doleriai/m2/metus) ir palyginus jas su ankstesniais tyrimais, darbe taip pat parodomas ryšys tarp eksploatacijos sąnaudų ir objekto amžiaus. Be to, darbe sudaromas hibridinis pilkasis modelis, pavadintas EGM(1,1), kuriame naudojant eksponentines eilutes nustatomos liktinės paklaidų eilutės, gautos pilkajame modelyje, taip siekiant prognozuoti eksploatacines sąnaudas. Naudojant 1998–2006 m. ligoninės pastato remontui išleistą sumą pristatomas EGM(1,1) taikymas ir praktiškumas. Rezultatai rodo, kad pasiūlytas modelis tendencijas gali prognozuoti tiksliai. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-14T03:42:00Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2f60b90c37ff4520aa3906d5b0c1d18e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1648-715X 1648-9179 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-14T03:42:00Z |
| publishDate | 2012-01-01 |
| publisher | Vilnius Gediminas Technical University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Strategic Property Management |
| spelling | doaj.art-2f60b90c37ff4520aa3906d5b0c1d18e2022-12-21T23:18:28ZengVilnius Gediminas Technical UniversityInternational Journal of Strategic Property Management1648-715X1648-91792012-01-0115410.3846/1648715X.2011.633775Application of the exponential grey model on the maintenance cost prediction for a large scale hospital / Eksponentinio pilkojo modelio taikymas prognozuojant didelės ligoninės eksploatacines sąnaudasTzu-Ping Lo0Sy-Jye Guo1Chin-Te Chen2Department of Environment and Property Management, Jinwen University of Science and Technology, #99, Anzhong Rd., Xindian Dist., New Taipei City, 23154, Taiwan, R.O.C.Department of Civil Engineering, National Taiwan University, #1, Sec. 4, Roosevelt Rd., Taipei 106, Taiwan, R.O.C.Engineering Affairs Office, National Taiwan University Hospital, #7, Chung Shan S. Rd., Taipei 100, Taiwan, R.O.C.Realizing the maintenance cost distribution and predicting the future tendency are important for facility managers to efficiently arrange the limited budget. This paper collects 16,228 maintenance records of a representative hospital in Taiwan and further analyzes the cost distribution. Besides, by calculating the maintenance cost of per square meter of floor area per year (dollar/m2/year) and comparing with the previous studies, this paper also points out the relationship between maintenance cost and the operation ages. moreover, this paper establishes a hybrid grey model termed as EGM(1,1), which adopting exponential series to identify the residual error series resulted from grey model, to predict the maintenance cost. The repair cost of hospital building from 1998 to 2006 is adopted to demonstrate the applicability and practicability of EGM(1,1). Results show that the proposed model can predict the tendency precisely. Santrauka Norint efektyviai išdėstyti ribotą biudžetą, pastatų ūkio valdytojai turi suprasti eksploatacijos sąnaudų pasiskirstymą ir sudaryti ateities tendencijų prognozes. Šiame darbe surinkti 16 228 įrašai apie reprezentacinės Taivano ligoninės eksploataciją ir jais remiantis analizuojamas sąnaudų pasiskirstymas. Apskaičiavus metines eksploatacijos sąnaudas vienam kvadratiniam metrui (doleriai/m2/metus) ir palyginus jas su ankstesniais tyrimais, darbe taip pat parodomas ryšys tarp eksploatacijos sąnaudų ir objekto amžiaus. Be to, darbe sudaromas hibridinis pilkasis modelis, pavadintas EGM(1,1), kuriame naudojant eksponentines eilutes nustatomos liktinės paklaidų eilutės, gautos pilkajame modelyje, taip siekiant prognozuoti eksploatacines sąnaudas. Naudojant 1998–2006 m. ligoninės pastato remontui išleistą sumą pristatomas EGM(1,1) taikymas ir praktiškumas. Rezultatai rodo, kad pasiūlytas modelis tendencijas gali prognozuoti tiksliai.https://journals.vgtu.lt/index.php/IJSPM/article/view/5498Exponential seriesFacility managementGrey modelHospital buildingMaintenance cost |
| spellingShingle | Tzu-Ping Lo Sy-Jye Guo Chin-Te Chen Application of the exponential grey model on the maintenance cost prediction for a large scale hospital / Eksponentinio pilkojo modelio taikymas prognozuojant didelės ligoninės eksploatacines sąnaudas International Journal of Strategic Property Management Exponential series Facility management Grey model Hospital building Maintenance cost |
| title | Application of the exponential grey model on the maintenance cost prediction for a large scale hospital / Eksponentinio pilkojo modelio taikymas prognozuojant didelės ligoninės eksploatacines sąnaudas |
| title_full | Application of the exponential grey model on the maintenance cost prediction for a large scale hospital / Eksponentinio pilkojo modelio taikymas prognozuojant didelės ligoninės eksploatacines sąnaudas |
| title_fullStr | Application of the exponential grey model on the maintenance cost prediction for a large scale hospital / Eksponentinio pilkojo modelio taikymas prognozuojant didelės ligoninės eksploatacines sąnaudas |
| title_full_unstemmed | Application of the exponential grey model on the maintenance cost prediction for a large scale hospital / Eksponentinio pilkojo modelio taikymas prognozuojant didelės ligoninės eksploatacines sąnaudas |
| title_short | Application of the exponential grey model on the maintenance cost prediction for a large scale hospital / Eksponentinio pilkojo modelio taikymas prognozuojant didelės ligoninės eksploatacines sąnaudas |
| title_sort | application of the exponential grey model on the maintenance cost prediction for a large scale hospital eksponentinio pilkojo modelio taikymas prognozuojant dideles ligonines eksploatacines sanaudas |
| topic | Exponential series Facility management Grey model Hospital building Maintenance cost |
| url | https://journals.vgtu.lt/index.php/IJSPM/article/view/5498 |
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