Assessing Impact of Temperature Variability of Climate Change on Mortality Based on Multiple GCM Projections in China
Gradually increasing durations of high temperature caused by climate change harm the health of individuals and then lead to death. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between durations of different daily mean air-temperature categories and mortality in China and forecast future mortalit...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2022-10-01
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| Series: | Atmosphere |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/11/1775 |
| _version_ | 1827647275853152256 |
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| author | Xiangyi Zheng Qingyuan Ma Ying Wang Xia Wang Xinren Zhang Qingzu Luan |
| author_facet | Xiangyi Zheng Qingyuan Ma Ying Wang Xia Wang Xinren Zhang Qingzu Luan |
| author_sort | Xiangyi Zheng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Gradually increasing durations of high temperature caused by climate change harm the health of individuals and then lead to death. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between durations of different daily mean air-temperature categories and mortality in China and forecast future mortality changes in China for 2020–2050 under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The daily mean air temperature was divided into 10 categories, and the days under each air-temperature category were counted during the period of 2000–2015. Then, the connection between the days of each of the 10 air-temperature categories and mortality was established using the semi parametric regression model. Results indicate that the days of the >32 °C category have the largest impact on mortality in China, with the death rate increasing by 23‰ for one additional day. Predictions reveal that mortality in China will increase 25.48% and 26.26% under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Moreover, the mortality of 86 regions in western China will increase 30.42%. Therefore, in the future, the increasing duration of days of high temperatures will raise the mortality rate in China and aggravate the mortality gap between developed and underdeveloped regions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T19:16:54Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2f669484a80f478393412c3c9a8d040f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T19:16:54Z |
| publishDate | 2022-10-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-2f669484a80f478393412c3c9a8d040f2023-11-24T03:41:59ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332022-10-011311177510.3390/atmos13111775Assessing Impact of Temperature Variability of Climate Change on Mortality Based on Multiple GCM Projections in ChinaXiangyi Zheng0Qingyuan Ma1Ying Wang2Xia Wang3Xinren Zhang4Qingzu Luan5Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaKey Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaKey Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaKey Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaKey Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaBeijing Municipal Climate Center, Beijing 100089, ChinaGradually increasing durations of high temperature caused by climate change harm the health of individuals and then lead to death. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between durations of different daily mean air-temperature categories and mortality in China and forecast future mortality changes in China for 2020–2050 under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The daily mean air temperature was divided into 10 categories, and the days under each air-temperature category were counted during the period of 2000–2015. Then, the connection between the days of each of the 10 air-temperature categories and mortality was established using the semi parametric regression model. Results indicate that the days of the >32 °C category have the largest impact on mortality in China, with the death rate increasing by 23‰ for one additional day. Predictions reveal that mortality in China will increase 25.48% and 26.26% under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Moreover, the mortality of 86 regions in western China will increase 30.42%. Therefore, in the future, the increasing duration of days of high temperatures will raise the mortality rate in China and aggravate the mortality gap between developed and underdeveloped regions.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/11/1775temperature daysmortalitysemiparametric regressionNEX-GDDPclimate change |
| spellingShingle | Xiangyi Zheng Qingyuan Ma Ying Wang Xia Wang Xinren Zhang Qingzu Luan Assessing Impact of Temperature Variability of Climate Change on Mortality Based on Multiple GCM Projections in China Atmosphere temperature days mortality semiparametric regression NEX-GDDP climate change |
| title | Assessing Impact of Temperature Variability of Climate Change on Mortality Based on Multiple GCM Projections in China |
| title_full | Assessing Impact of Temperature Variability of Climate Change on Mortality Based on Multiple GCM Projections in China |
| title_fullStr | Assessing Impact of Temperature Variability of Climate Change on Mortality Based on Multiple GCM Projections in China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing Impact of Temperature Variability of Climate Change on Mortality Based on Multiple GCM Projections in China |
| title_short | Assessing Impact of Temperature Variability of Climate Change on Mortality Based on Multiple GCM Projections in China |
| title_sort | assessing impact of temperature variability of climate change on mortality based on multiple gcm projections in china |
| topic | temperature days mortality semiparametric regression NEX-GDDP climate change |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/11/1775 |
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