Improving national strategic foresight with the use of forecasting tournaments and its implications for the study of international relations [version 1; peer review: 2 approved]
Improving national strategic foresight can help the formation of more robust and informed policies, including foreign policy. Predicated upon the theory behind peer-prediction elicitation methods such as Reciprocal Scoring, we combined two foresight methods - Forecasting tournaments and a Delphi met...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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F1000 Research Ltd
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Stosunki Międzynarodowe |
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| Online Access: | https://internationalrelations-publishing.org/articles/2-4/v1 |
| Summary: | Improving national strategic foresight can help the formation of more robust and informed policies, including foreign policy. Predicated upon the theory behind peer-prediction elicitation methods such as Reciprocal Scoring, we combined two foresight methods - Forecasting tournaments and a Delphi method - into a design in which a forecasting tournament predicted the results of a Delphi. Experts in a Delphi could take into account the arguments of participants from a prior forecasting tournament and thus make better-informed decisions. This methodological article aims to validate the feasibility of this design. It describes how we implemented it for identifying and prioritizing global megatrends as part of a strategic foresight project for the Czech government. We found this design practically applicable, while the forecasting tournament also seems to improve the ability of participants to predict a group consensus. Similar combinations of foresight methods could be used to enhance the study of international relations. |
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| ISSN: | 2754-2572 |