Catastrophic collapse can occur without early warning: examples of silent catastrophes in structured ecological models.
Catastrophic and sudden collapses of ecosystems are sometimes preceded by early warning signals that potentially could be used to predict and prevent a forthcoming catastrophe. Universality of these early warning signals has been proposed, but no formal proof has been provided. Here, we show that in...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2013-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3623932?pdf=render |
| _version_ | 1818991405775716352 |
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| author | Maarten C Boerlijst Thomas Oudman André M de Roos |
| author_facet | Maarten C Boerlijst Thomas Oudman André M de Roos |
| author_sort | Maarten C Boerlijst |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Catastrophic and sudden collapses of ecosystems are sometimes preceded by early warning signals that potentially could be used to predict and prevent a forthcoming catastrophe. Universality of these early warning signals has been proposed, but no formal proof has been provided. Here, we show that in relatively simple ecological models the most commonly used early warning signals for a catastrophic collapse can be silent. We underpin the mathematical reason for this phenomenon, which involves the direction of the eigenvectors of the system. Our results demonstrate that claims on the universality of early warning signals are not correct, and that catastrophic collapses can occur without prior warning. In order to correctly predict a collapse and determine whether early warning signals precede the collapse, detailed knowledge of the mathematical structure of the approaching bifurcation is necessary. Unfortunately, such knowledge is often only obtained after the collapse has already occurred. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-20T20:09:45Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2f8792764dfd4a79a436edea5b69b4c2 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-20T20:09:45Z |
| publishDate | 2013-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj.art-2f8792764dfd4a79a436edea5b69b4c22022-12-21T19:27:51ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032013-01-0184e6203310.1371/journal.pone.0062033Catastrophic collapse can occur without early warning: examples of silent catastrophes in structured ecological models.Maarten C BoerlijstThomas OudmanAndré M de RoosCatastrophic and sudden collapses of ecosystems are sometimes preceded by early warning signals that potentially could be used to predict and prevent a forthcoming catastrophe. Universality of these early warning signals has been proposed, but no formal proof has been provided. Here, we show that in relatively simple ecological models the most commonly used early warning signals for a catastrophic collapse can be silent. We underpin the mathematical reason for this phenomenon, which involves the direction of the eigenvectors of the system. Our results demonstrate that claims on the universality of early warning signals are not correct, and that catastrophic collapses can occur without prior warning. In order to correctly predict a collapse and determine whether early warning signals precede the collapse, detailed knowledge of the mathematical structure of the approaching bifurcation is necessary. Unfortunately, such knowledge is often only obtained after the collapse has already occurred.http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3623932?pdf=render |
| spellingShingle | Maarten C Boerlijst Thomas Oudman André M de Roos Catastrophic collapse can occur without early warning: examples of silent catastrophes in structured ecological models. PLoS ONE |
| title | Catastrophic collapse can occur without early warning: examples of silent catastrophes in structured ecological models. |
| title_full | Catastrophic collapse can occur without early warning: examples of silent catastrophes in structured ecological models. |
| title_fullStr | Catastrophic collapse can occur without early warning: examples of silent catastrophes in structured ecological models. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Catastrophic collapse can occur without early warning: examples of silent catastrophes in structured ecological models. |
| title_short | Catastrophic collapse can occur without early warning: examples of silent catastrophes in structured ecological models. |
| title_sort | catastrophic collapse can occur without early warning examples of silent catastrophes in structured ecological models |
| url | http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC3623932?pdf=render |
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