Policy simulation modelling to inform national carbon budget pathways
Carbon budgets are emerging as a key policy tool to set cumulative targets on greenhouse gas emissions at a national and international level. In this paper, we develop a methodology for simulation modelling of energy demand and carbon dioxide (CO2eq.) emissions to assess the implication of different...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2023-11-01
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| Series: | Energy Strategy Reviews |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X23001876 |
| _version_ | 1797435793188323328 |
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| author | Vera ÓRiordan Tomás Mac Uidhir Fionn Rogan |
| author_facet | Vera ÓRiordan Tomás Mac Uidhir Fionn Rogan |
| author_sort | Vera ÓRiordan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Carbon budgets are emerging as a key policy tool to set cumulative targets on greenhouse gas emissions at a national and international level. In this paper, we develop a methodology for simulation modelling of energy demand and carbon dioxide (CO2eq.) emissions to assess the implication of different scenarios on sectoral emissions ceilings and carbon budgets. We demonstrate how this simulation modelling approach to carbon budgets applies to Ireland's Climate Action Bill, which sets a legal obligation to keep within defined sectoral emission ceilings. The transport, residential, industry, and electricity sectors meet Carbon Budget 1 (2021–2025), and the residential and services sector meets Carbon Budget 2 (2026–2030) sectoral ceilings in the scenario presented. This paper also examines the interaction effect between these policy scenarios. The interaction effect between public transport and modal shift shows an additional emissions savings of 0.1 MtCO2eq. The interaction effect also highlights a ‘double counting’ effect between the uptake of Electric Vehicles (EVs) and increased biofuel mixing for private car transport of 0.3 MtCO2eq., and for Evs and passenger transport modal shift of 0.2 MtCO2eq. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T10:53:09Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-2f8e61cb884d4ab9bbd24316f51dfcd0 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2211-467X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T10:53:09Z |
| publishDate | 2023-11-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energy Strategy Reviews |
| spelling | doaj.art-2f8e61cb884d4ab9bbd24316f51dfcd02023-12-01T05:01:36ZengElsevierEnergy Strategy Reviews2211-467X2023-11-0150101237Policy simulation modelling to inform national carbon budget pathwaysVera ÓRiordan0Tomás Mac Uidhir1Fionn Rogan2Energy Policy and Modelling Group, MaREI Centre, Environmental Research Institute, University College Cork, Ireland; School of Engineering and Architecture, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland; Corresponding author. Energy Policy and Modelling Group, MaREI Centre, Environmental Research Institute, University College Cork, Ireland.Energy Policy and Modelling Group, MaREI Centre, Environmental Research Institute, University College Cork, Ireland; School of Engineering and Architecture, University College Cork, Cork, IrelandEnergy Policy and Modelling Group, MaREI Centre, Environmental Research Institute, University College Cork, Ireland; School of Engineering and Architecture, University College Cork, Cork, IrelandCarbon budgets are emerging as a key policy tool to set cumulative targets on greenhouse gas emissions at a national and international level. In this paper, we develop a methodology for simulation modelling of energy demand and carbon dioxide (CO2eq.) emissions to assess the implication of different scenarios on sectoral emissions ceilings and carbon budgets. We demonstrate how this simulation modelling approach to carbon budgets applies to Ireland's Climate Action Bill, which sets a legal obligation to keep within defined sectoral emission ceilings. The transport, residential, industry, and electricity sectors meet Carbon Budget 1 (2021–2025), and the residential and services sector meets Carbon Budget 2 (2026–2030) sectoral ceilings in the scenario presented. This paper also examines the interaction effect between these policy scenarios. The interaction effect between public transport and modal shift shows an additional emissions savings of 0.1 MtCO2eq. The interaction effect also highlights a ‘double counting’ effect between the uptake of Electric Vehicles (EVs) and increased biofuel mixing for private car transport of 0.3 MtCO2eq., and for Evs and passenger transport modal shift of 0.2 MtCO2eq.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X23001876 |
| spellingShingle | Vera ÓRiordan Tomás Mac Uidhir Fionn Rogan Policy simulation modelling to inform national carbon budget pathways Energy Strategy Reviews |
| title | Policy simulation modelling to inform national carbon budget pathways |
| title_full | Policy simulation modelling to inform national carbon budget pathways |
| title_fullStr | Policy simulation modelling to inform national carbon budget pathways |
| title_full_unstemmed | Policy simulation modelling to inform national carbon budget pathways |
| title_short | Policy simulation modelling to inform national carbon budget pathways |
| title_sort | policy simulation modelling to inform national carbon budget pathways |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X23001876 |
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