Re-evaluating safety risks of multifunctional dikes with a probabilistic risk framework
<p>It is not uncommon for a flood defence to be combined with other societal uses as a multifunctional flood defence, from housing in urban areas to nature conservation in rural areas. The assessment of the safety of multifunctional flood defences is often done using conservative estimates. Th...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2019-04-01
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| Series: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Online Access: | https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/19/737/2019/nhess-19-737-2019.pdf |
| Summary: | <p>It is not uncommon for a flood defence to be combined
with other societal uses as a multifunctional flood defence, from housing in
urban areas to nature conservation in rural areas. The assessment of the
safety of multifunctional flood defences is often done using conservative
estimates. This study synthesizes new probabilistic approaches to evaluate
the safety of multifunctional flood defences employed in the Netherlands and
explores the results of these approaches. In this paper a case representing
a typical Dutch river dike combining a flood safety function with a nature
and housing function is assessed by its probability of failure for multiple
reinforcement strategies considering multiple relevant failure mechanisms.
Results show how the conservative estimates of multifunctional flood
defences lead to a systematic underestimation of the reliability of these
dikes. Furthermore, in a probabilistic assessment uncertainties introduced
by multifunctional elements affect the level of safety of the dike
proportional to the reliability of the dike itself. Hence, dikes with higher
protection levels are more suitable to be combined with potentially harmful
uses for safety, whereas dikes with low protection levels can benefit most
from uses that contribute to safety.</p> |
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| ISSN: | 1561-8633 1684-9981 |